Download Subtitles for Emini Review - Feb 17, 2026 Analysis

Hey everybody, I hope everyone is doing well and had a good day. Thank you for joining me for today's end of day review of the E- Mini five minute chart for Tuesday, February 17th, 2026. And before we get into the five minute, I want to talk about the higher time frame context on the daily chart. Just quickly, markets in a trading range. We can see it's not clear who is in control. It's very much sideways. When the market's in a trading range, traders are selling at resistance and buying at support. You know it from the Brooks trading course, buy low, sell high, scalp. And that applies to all markets and all time frames. So the daily chart is no exception. What's the context going into the day? Market is in a trading range near support. We have maybe four or five legs down. Different computers will count legs in different ways, but it's important to recognize that at a minimum that this is a late leg at support. So unless the bears get a breakout far below the bars to the left, we have to assume that the breakout is going to fail. 80% of breakouts of trading ranges fail. Big bare breakout bar, but then the follow-through bar was a dogee. So bad follow-through. Bears lost momentum. They may not be in control. Maybe they're taking profits at support. There's a bull breakout to the left trapping traders in this area which would lead to both bulls and bears buying. So the expectation going into the day is sellers above yesterday's high and buyers below yesterday's low. And by the way, when I say yesterday, I'm referring to the prior trading day. So technically, this would have been Friday the 13th of February last week. So probably buyers below Friday. So just as a reminder, there's a blue horizontal line at yesterday's low. That's what this line on the 5minute chart is representing. So it's the low of the prior day probably will act as support on the 5m minute context going into the day. The prior trading day there was a tight bare channel the minor reversal. The expectation was this micro channel would be enough disappointment. The traders who sold down here are sufficiently trapped that it creates temporary support. The bulls will probably get a second leg sideways to up, but that does not make this a major reversal. It's still more likely a minor reversal. Sure, there might be a small trend line break, but the bulls never got bars completely above the moving average at the breakout. Lots of overlap, but bodies of bars getting smaller. So, not a very strong bull breakout and just barely breaking the tight bear channel trend line. So, minor reversal more likely and test of the lows likely. Basically, second leg down, bare breakout, pullback, and second leg down to test the low is likely. So bar one might be that second leg sideways to up leg one deep pullback leg two and it's sideways and the bulls got that burst of momentum for the second time. One pullback two but on bar one the market is testing resistance. It looks like a bare flag possibly a double top bare flag bare trend trend line break retest of the low. Bulls may be hoping it's a major reversal, but maybe not enough bars for a major reversal through here. And there are exceptions that MTRS can happen. Major trend reversals can happen with fewer bars on the open. So, let's see what the bulls get for follow through. Bar two, a much smaller bull bar. Okay, to buy second leg up likely, but bulls are losing momentum and they're testing resistance. tight bear channel, second leg down likely. So, it could be dangerous to buy in this area. Possible second leg trap at resistance and then a big bare breakout bar on three. So, second leg down likely because the traders who bought bars one and two are trapped on bar three and that creates resistance above the market. Also, we mentioned the tight air channel is likely to get a second leg down. Also the prior days high and low both act as magnets. So market is interested in in testing at least one of them most days. Again with price action it doesn't matter what market or what time frame chart you're looking at. Most bars are breakout bars and the daily chart is no exception to that fact. So more more than likely any day is going to test thigh or the low of the prior day and the bears are likely to get a second leg with room to the downside to test that magnet. So bar three it's always in short. I don't think it was ever always in long. Although maybe buy above one is okay but a little suspicious with the lack of follow through or at least the smaller follow-through bar on bar two. And then if you get bar three, you have to sell below it. Too much risk that we break to the downside and fall for a measured move based on the height of this bare flag, which takes us close to the prior days low. Bears get a follow through for it. It's a bad stop order to buy, sell the close, sell above. Bears get a big small big breakout. Bar four, it's basically a trading range bar. you know on a on a smaller time frame you think about the bar by bar analysis bare trend trading range with a bearish bias and then another bare trend. So now bar four the low of bar 75 area is a breakout point. It's possible that bar five is simply a sell vacuum test of support, but it's aggressive to simply buy with a limit order at the low of the prior day. For me, I'd rather wait for evidence that there are strong buyers in this area. So, I'd rather wait for the price action breakout before buying here. I think taking profits is okay here, but the reality is that three, four, and five, it's a strong enough bare breakout to reset the leg count to some degree. This is likely to get a second leg down. And then six, a smaller follow-through bar. So, that one reached that measured move target. It's much smaller follow-through bar. It's a warning that there may be a pullback soon. We're breaking below the prior days low. And the expectation, it's a trading range day, trading range bar, daily expectation breakout will fail. We'll find buyers below yesterday's low. So, we're going to speed it up a bit. Bar seven, pretty decent bull breakout bar. Enough for a second leg sideways to up, but probably a minor reversal. Second leg down still likely. The low one fails, bulls get a second leg to the breakout point that I mentioned on bar four. But the problem with bar 10, possible second leg trap for the bulls. One pullback, two testing resistance, second leg down, still likely, and the bears have not had it yet. But seven and 10, both strong bull bars. And it's a warning for the bears that the downside might be limited. that remember the higher time frame chart suggests we're at support and the downside might be limited which means this might not be a bare trend that lasts all day. It might actually end up being a reversal in this area and there's sufficient buying pressure on both seven and 10. There's enough evidence that buyers are here that the downside might be limited. So, possible second leg trap, but 10 enough of a breakout to trap traders below. So, rather than buying here, traders will buy a pullback and the downside, like I said, might be limited. Market testing the low. As far as measured move targets, most conservative one could take bars five and six. Breakout follow through from that trading range bar. So breakout, pullback, second leg, and that's a second leg measure move it looks like on bar 13 or very close to it. So, it's possible it's leg one, leg two, leg three. And this looks like a trading range with the strength of these bull bars. And we'll see trend resumption at the new low. Inside bar, another inside bar. So, it looks like an II pattern, possible final flag. It's a tight trading range. And after three legs, far below the EMA, it's a warning we may pull back here. And seven and 10. Bars seven and 10 are also a warning. Like I said, the downside might be limited. There might be buyers at the new low rather than sellers. And this all could be a trading range. So where this area is the bottom of the range and this could be the top of the range. Breakout bar 16 1516. The structure is good and the signal is strong enough for a second leg. 16 probably by the close. 15 was probably an always in flipping bar, meaning you had three legs down to bar 15. Bull bar closing on its high and probably a trading range at this point. So buying back shorts above 15 is reasonable. Buying to go long above 15 is a little aggressive but still reasonable. Or you could wait for the breakout bar 16 increases your probability. Risk-reward gets worse, but you do get probability and now you have a call it a reversal and follow through. Or even just a one bar breakout 15 16 second leg up likely to buy the close scale in second leg likely shallow pullback. Bulls get a second leg. 19, a possible measuring gap. Testing resistance to close of bar 10. We'll see what the bears can get. But this is strong enough rally that the first reversal is probably going to be minor, which means you can buy the close and if you use a wide stop and scale in, you're probably going to make money. And 80% of the time, you'll either make money or avoid a loss. So further breaking out on bar 20. Bar 20 is probably by the close. Bar 21 probably by the close. You just have to be aware of the resistance to the left. It's possible. It's a buy climax testing resistance. So if there's any hesitation, better to just get out and wait. But obviously really strong rally 15 to 21. Second leg up likely. Couple of smaller bars, 22, 23. So, it's kind of like down here when you're far below the moving average, you get these smaller overlapping bars. It's a warning. We might pull back to the average. And up here, strong rally, but now we're far above the moving average. It's basically on a smaller time frame, you would see a channel and it's three pushes up, far above EMA, and at resistance. So, pullback may be increasingly likely here for the bulls. not ideal for buying because the stop in theory is so far. So what traders will do instead because buying here second leg up likely yes but your stop in theory is below 15 that's really far that's big risk so instead of buying here traders will wait to buy a pullback and if we think about day structure at this point it's possible it's an expanding triangle you have a low high lower low higher high maybe we come back down and test the lows but at a minimum we'll probably some sort of pullback after this rally because it looks like it's a trading room day. The bars are going big up, big down, big up. Now we're back at resistance. Bar 24, bare breakout bar at resistance. Strong enough bar for a second leg down. probably always in short below 24. Despite all of this buying pressure, despite the micro channel, 24 isn't always flipping bar. Meaning, if you're long, it's reasonable to exit longs below 24. And if you're flat, you can sell 24, scale in, and very likely you'll make money or avoid a loss. It's still probably a minor reversal. If you're selling 24, you're not expecting a big bare trend. You're expecting a scalp and a second leg of similar size. Just try to speed it up a bit here. So, it looks like the bare breakout had a two-legged pullback. This is a very good example of the fractal two-legged n nature of price action. Bare breakout, two-legged pullback, second leg. So, two legs through here. one pull back, two and even 27 and 28 is two legs down, one pullback, two. So the bears have two legs down. They're testing support, but this is a fairly tight bare channel. It's actually a micro channel. So 35 not ideal for buying. I think it's okay to maybe start buying and scale in, but it's also reasonable to look for another leg down after this micro channel. So this is one of those instances where you can buy, manage the trade and make money or sell, manage the trade and make money. 36 reversal and follow through, strong breakout bar, reasonable buy, but also like I said, tight bare channel, micro channel through here. So may need one more leg down. Now we're testing resistance again. this tight trading range, the high of that tight trading range is resistance. We find sellers in that area again. Now, what about bar 39? It's really like the ideal breakout bar. It's a perfect breakout bar for the bears. Opens on its high, closes on its low. Very little overlap with the prior bar. So, what's the problem with it? Problem is context. You have a bare channel line that it's testing trying to break below. So, it's leg three, one, two, three legs down and it's testing support. It's testing this breakout point, this breakout point, these breakout points. There's a cluster of support in this area. So, you have three legs down to support after a strong rally that is still likely to get a second leg. And the question is, has the rally gotten a symmetrical second leg? No, of course not. There's no rally similar in size to this. This is all minor. This is a minor reversal. You can call it a bull flag. You can call it a pullback, but the bulls have not had their second leg yet. So, bull breakout, pullback, second leg still likely. So, this is not an ideal place to be selling. actually possibly a great opportunity to take profits on shorts because it's leg and a breakout bar testing support reversal bar 40s the breakout gets a small second leg still trying to break below support then we got bar 42 so after three legs down to support bar 42 it's a strong bull breakout context is good and we may need a big second leg up after that rally. So buying 42 is reasonable. It's an always in flipping bar. So if you you know context probably buy the close 39, be quick to get out if you're selling, but if you want to wait for the price action signal, bar 42 is that signal. So you can buy above 42. If you're short, definitely should consider exiting shorts above 42. Bar 42 gets a a breakout pullback. And this is basically a wedge double bottom. On a smaller time frame, you'd see one, two, three, three or four pushes down to support. Second leg up likely bar 42, but also second leg up likely micro channel. And then there's your give up bar. The bears going for four legs down. They give up and you get this big breakout bar 47, second leg up likely. So the market is building the bigger picture. You have this big breakout complex pullback with about 20 bars and then possible assumption here for the bulls. Minimum target probably the high but of course the bulls would also go for a measured move leg one pull back leg two. That takes us to the prior days high. So bulls getting follow through buying. It's a micro channel. Nothing to sell. Always in long. Okay to be long. Would you sell 51? No. Minor reversal likely. You can buy below 51. You can buy at the close buy below any of these bars. 54. Minor reversal likely. Buy the close buy below. Now we're getting to some resistance maybe in this area trading range bare breakout below. So that support became resistance. You have this channel line. The market seems to have obeyed a couple of times. So now we're getting a tight trading range far above the moving average. Maybe three big legs up on a trading range day. So buying here less ideal. Still nothing to sell, but you just have to be careful. This might be this tight trading range might be a final flag before a deeper pullback and maybe a conversion into a trading range. So 59 might be a big or excuse me, a small leg one pullback, leg two, second leg trap at the top of the trading range. Then it's instantly sold. 60 probably okay to exit longs below 60. Tight trading range. Bear bar closing near its low. Might correct and test breakout points like the bar 23 high. Just want to clean up the chart a bit. Keep that one. Okay. Bar 61. Another bar like 59. Now we have three legs up. One pause, two pullback, three. So, three legs up two resistance. It's nested. One, two, three. So, 61 kind of like 59. Maybe a better sell the closed bar. Good bar to take profits if you're long and aggressive, but it's a limit order to short for the bears at the top of the tight trading range and a late leg. Yes, bad follow-through. But similar to down here, bare breakout bar in a late leg, bad context for selling, gets a small second leg, then reverses. Bull breakout bar, bad context for buying. There's a pause, small second leg, and then reversal. Bare breakout 64. Bigger bare breakout 65. 64. Always in flipping bar kind of like 60. Reasonable to exit below 64. Sell the close 65. Sell the close 66. Second leg down likely. So if a second leg down is likely and it's sell to close then selling above 66 is reasonable minor reversal likely. So traders will sell above 66. And you can see that's what happened on bar 67. What about buying 69? Probably a minor reversal. The tight the bare channel is tight. the signal bar is small and this means you have low probability. You've heard Al talk about it in the trading course. Traders will constantly take trades like this where the signal bar looks great. It's a bull reversal bar closing on its high. The risk is small. The reward, the potential reward is huge, maybe five times your risk. But the trader's equation is made of three variables. risk, reward, and probability. So, you know, because someone has to take the opposite side of your trade. There's no such thing as a perfect trade. So, if a trade is too good to be true, for example, small risk, huge reward, then you know you're giving up probability. You know, the other side has the higher probability. So 69 it can be a tempting bar to buy because it looks good and the you know maybe it's a trading range. Maybe there's maybe it's an expanding triangle. There's an argument to be made but it also might be worth it to wait for the strong bull breakout and then maybe then you take the buy. But 69 low probability buy tight bare channel second leg down likely. So lower prices likely and then it just goes outside down 70 as we get later in the day. Not really worth trading. Um but the price action remains consistent tight air channel. Second leg down still likely 72 probably sellers above still tight air channel. Sellers above bars 75. Little bit of a surprise but minor reversal more likely strong enough bar. It'll probably get a second leg sideways to up, but we'll also probably test the lows before we go much higher. So, minor reversal here. Traders will take 75. You know, it's a big bull bar, but completely below the moving average following the tight air channel. Second leg down likely. So, 75 might be a better sell the close bar. Test of the lows. Bulls still may get a better second leg sideways 12 up although they probably got their minimum second leg there and then maybe 78 is their second leg sideways and then just running out of time later in the day tight trading range we got a bull breakout 81 but testing that area the bar 69 trap trapping bulls into buying and losing money that creates resistance. So second leg down still likely possible. You call it a wedge bare flag. You call it a double top bare flag. Probably sellers in this area. And this is probably a trading range or a bare flag like one pullback leg two. All right, that's going to be it for today's end of day review. Thanks again for joining me for today's video and I hope everybody has a good night.