Download Subtitles for Stock Market Surge Insights Video

Hello everyone US stocks have risen for 13 consecutive days A friend said after copying my investment notes There was a wave of returns of 15%-20% Congratulations to everyone The most common question in the backstage messages now is There is only one When to sell This question is worth 100,000 dollars The buyers are students The seller is a teacher Today I'm going to teach everyone for free How to analyze when to sell in the short and medium term Everyone must watch until the end First of all, I want to clarify that this video is my own investment note For educational purposes only Does not constitute any investment advice Let's talk about current affairs and politics first Last Friday, Trump shouted The Strait of Hormuz is open US stocks continue to surge But here comes the news today Iran's Revolutionary Guards say the strait remains closed After the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen for 13 consecutive days No matter which way the war goes It's very normal for a drop to happen these two days Don't panic and get off the ride then Because it might be very difficult to get back on Based on my research on Iranian politics and Trump I think the possibility of another war breaking out is very high Close to 60%-80% Because now Iran holds military power, it is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), they are fanatical followers of the Mahdi belief. The core is to develop missiles and nuclear weapons, waging a holy war is now the core demand of the United States. which is to make Iran permanently abandon uranium enrichment, and give up developing nuclear weapons. But on this point alone, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will definitely disagree. So everyone needs to be careful these days. The situation could reverse at any time. A major conflict may erupt again. But the question is, if a real fight breaks out, will the stock market crash? My answer is that a slight drop may occur, but the likelihood of another crash is low. If the bearish bears don't believe it, please continue to short QQQ three times. Newcomers who have not entered yet may cause a wave of decline after the negotiation breaks down Add a little position in China Next, I will give everyone a detailed analysis Why do I make this judgment And I will also teach everyone how to find selling points of US stocks from a quantitative perspective This is very important In investing, you must learn when to sell Before we begin Let me answer an important question first. Many friends ask me where to find investment information. The one I use the most is the globally leading information website, investing.com. They provide free all-in-one global financial news, covering US stocks, A-shares, Taiwan stocks, and Hong Kong stocks. They have gold, cryptocurrencies, and more. I am now a member of their InvestingPro. I love using ProPicks AI to pick potential bullish stocks the most. ProPicks provides investment strategies for global markets Utilizing AI and human experts to develop strategies Adjusting on a monthly or quarterly basis Such as Buffett's picks and tech giants You can see all the rebalancing records Historical returns outperform the market by a lot Choose Taiwan You can also see Taiwan's leading strategies for the stock market such as Taiwan's chip champion strategy When buying and selling, everything is clearly explained to you Once you find the core target Don't blindly enter the market First, add them to your watchlist You can see Each stock has a fair value Green means Nvidia is undervalued It could rise by over 20% Red means it's overpriced If the performance is below expectations It may experience a significant drop After looking at the fundamentals Let's now look at the technical aspects This is a feature of investing.com It can be used during stock trading Based on real-time candlestick charts To inform you whether to buy Selling on a daily basis means In the short term, due to wars or other macro news The stock price is expected to fall But buying strongly for 1 month means monthly technical indicator is bullish for long-term investors So buy the dip Buy when it dips If you have any questions you can click on WarrenAI to ask directly Please explain in a professional and easy-to-understand manner Is it a good time to buy NVIDIA now Later, WarrenAI will give you a very detailed advice. I see comments Many friends are asking me How do you view Tesla's stock? Is it okay to add positions in TSMC and SPY now? You ask me, It's better to analyze step by step based on the method I just taught you, and finally rely on WarrenAI's reliable advice. Because you can see all the evidence I sincerely recommend this website I'm using it myself now Flash sale promotion from the 20th to the 23rd of this month Click on the screen information bar to pin the comment link Or scan the QR code Purchase the investingPro membership And get a 55% discount on the official website At checkout Enter my exclusive discount code 'nicholas' You can also get an additional 15% discount. This is a great opportunity for everyone to say hello. Friends who want to learn about investing, please make good use of this tool. Thank you all. The discount offered is still very generous. Next, I will adjust my investment strategy through studying selling indicators. To fine-tune my investment strategy. My overall judgment is There is still a chance of an upward trend in the medium to long term. The target for the S&P 500 this year is 7,500-7,700. Most retail investors are still very hesitant now They dare not enter the market This is a very good phenomenon We must enter the market when most people dare not Prepare in advance Settle and exit when they are crazy I found that several indicators are very accurate in judging trends Let's study them together Let's talk about short-term indicators first The first one to look at is the famous contrarian indicator Called AAII Investor Sentiment Survey American Individual Investor Sentiment Survey The blue line in this chart represents bullish sentiment while the red line represents bearish sentiment and the yellow line represents the S&P 500. This indicator confirms a saying by Buffett Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. From the situation in the past three months, back in January, after retail investors reached a peak in bullish sentiment, the US stock market started to plummet. Now, the US stock market is surging, but the bearish red line still significantly exceeds the bullish blue line, indicating that most people are still bearish. When they are bearish, the stock market has been rising for 13 consecutive days. When to sell stocks? When the number of people bullish according to AAII is over 50, and the number of bearish people is below 25, that's when. The gap between the blue line and the red line is getting wider, the gap is increasing, and it lasts for more than 3 weeks, at this point, it's basically a sign that the market is going crazy. When you go to buy braised pork rice. You can hear people at the next table talking about buying stocks. At this time, the taxi driver is also recommending stocks to you. At this point, you definitely want to sell. You must remember the English terms for these indicators. Just search on Google and it will come out. The current situation is that the market has not reached the crazy stage yet. We can continue to hold on or buy a little more when there is a small dip. The second short-term indicator is called NAAIM Exposure Index Active investment managers' exposure index The meaning of this blue line is how many fund managers in the United States are borrowing money to buy stocks If the value of this blue line reaches above 100, it means that basically all fund managers are borrowing money to buy stocks Leveraging up Leveraging up means the market is going crazy. But if this blue line starts to drop, it means fund managers are deleveraging, selling stocks. They're saying they're done playing, taking profits first. Look at last December to now, January this year, the S&P 500 has been rising overall. But American fund managers are gradually deleveraging, selling stocks. What does this indicate? It means that the big players are pushing up prices while unloading their positions. When they finish selling, the market suddenly realizes that liquidity is gone. War is coming. I want to sell gold. And gold drops. I also want to sell stocks. I need to cover my margin call So all these market makers The sudden drops in everything were all foreseen in advance When we combine the contrarian indicator AAII mentioned above we will find Who the institutions are selling to They are all selling to these retail investors When retail investors are most optimistic institutions are selling off their stocks The index is still around 71 now. When are we going to sell the stocks? It's when it reaches above 100. We'll prepare to sell together with the fund manager. Slowly sell the stocks to retail investors. The third one is a mid-term indicator. Called BofA Bull and Bear Indicator. This indicator is a very complex composite indicator. Including the liquidity of the US stock market. And the position of hedge funds. Such as bearish ratio, leverage ratio, and so on The Bank of America has turned it into a composite index This indicator is very interesting It can provide a warning 3 to 5 months in advance The market may experience a drop of over 10% Just by looking at the chart of the past 10 years In the 3 to 5 months before a major drop This index will surge to a high level If its value remains above 80 throughout a month Continuously above 80 Basically, it's almost like the stock market. It can hold on for a few more months. Then there will be a big drop. Before this big drop, in October 25, the index surged to 84. Then it started to decline in February. Now the bull-bear indicator is at 77, in a moderate range. Not overheated. But it's also close to 80. We need to observe whether this indicator will surge in the future. When it reaches 80 or 90, if it surges, everyone can give themselves a warning. Don't let emotions take over and keep buying stocks now. It's time to slowly reduce positions. Actually, this kind of short to medium-term quantitative indicator, there are more than 20 of them. For friends who are not professional investors, they may not have time to research these. I'm currently using the Claude Max version. Over 200 dollars a month I scan these indicators every day So please pay attention to me Turn on the notification bell When I see any strange changes I will post on YouTube for the first time Or make a video to inform everyone When everyone is investing There must be a short-term and mid-term Concept of long-term in mind What I just mentioned was the medium-term. Now let's talk about the long-term perspective. I am bullish on this aspect. But everyone must pay attention to one risk. That is the valuation indicators for the long term. For example, the Buffett Indicator is now at 227. And the Shiller CAPE is now at 40.4. All of these are for the long term. They are at extreme high levels, in the top 5% historically. They have reached the levels of the 2000 dot-com bubble. What does this mean? It means unless with the help of AI, the productivity and profitability of enterprises in the United States in the next 1-3 years will see a significant increase. These valuations can be lowered. Otherwise, the growth of AI will fall short of expectations. Then in the future, we may encounter a major collapse. The market may drop by 15%-20%. But when will this happen? I don't know, maybe next year, or the year after, or in 2030, That's how the U.S. stock market is. There's a big drop every 3-5 years. When you hear this, Are you scared? If you are scared, Then you won't make money, Because that's how investing works. The bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish If you are afraid of the volatility of the US stock market then you should invest in fixed deposits Since you are learning about investment with fixed deposits you must train yourself to have the ability to catch big fish in rough seas And this ability is about learning how to allocate your assets Allocate your assets in a way that makes you comfortable Steady growth Don't be afraid even if it falls Are you still willing to buy When the market goes up It can also rise with it Or rise even more So next, I will talk to everyone about Several sectors that I am optimistic about These are all in my portfolio Financial reports will be released at the end of April The volatility is also very high. So everyone must pay attention. There are opportunities as well as risks. If the stock market retraces, prudent players can buy some large stocks on dips, such as Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Broadcom. Actually, I am optimistic about all of these. AI infrastructure Everyone must pay attention This is the direction for the next 3-5 years Buying SOXX and SMH is basically enough If you increase your position in semiconductors now It's all-time highs If you get in, you're likely to get stuck Because all the recent funds are coming out of energy Entering the semiconductor sector Technology real estate In the field of industrial infrastructure If you follow up on a large scale at this time It may be at a high level So controlling risk must always come first Don't let emotions take over The strategy is either regular investment Or wait for a pullback before buying But remember, the key direction is the future storage SNDK such as Micron, MU, and TSMC Sun Moon Light Caterpillar There is also the gold mine GDX Energy GEV construction type GWR I am very optimistic about these These are good stocks The core bottom position must not be moved randomly Just hold on Now the solar modules are also rising relatively crazily This is also good This position is relatively small I still have Corning glass fiber I used to talk a lot about aviation stocks Last week they also rose sharply One after another reaching new highs Such as the Low Earth Orbit satellite series PL Rocket series RKLB And the lunar landing series LUNR They are all included in an ETF I also bought that UFO Reaching new highs every day Many friends ask me about these space stocks and what about quantum stocks Can they still go up My advice is not to chase because I used AI for a full web search The first thing I saw was the first thing I saw is the retail investor discussion volume in the last three days and found that these space stocks recently The discussion volume of RKLB has increased by 166%. The stock LUNR for lunar exploration has grown by 700%. This is a signal of a market peak. I'm not saying these stocks will crash immediately. I mean when these Reddit, TikTok retail investors start crazily discussing one or two stocks, the fund managers are already selling off. So, in today's video, I'll summarize in three sentences. First, it's not time to sell in the short term yet. But if you're worried you can also sell some as long as you feel comfortable or have friends who buy puts you can buy insurance for your portfolio It's still cheaper to buy QQQ puts now if the stock market really has a small drop in the future you can also add some it's all fine The second point is the mid-term It's about half a year to a year when the war is really coming to an end and the oil price drops to around 80 during the market frenzy, we can sell off some and then buy into gold. Everyone must not forget about gold allocation. Gold is not rising as much as semiconductors now, but when the semiconductor market really can't rise anymore, It might be gold's turn soon. The third largest family is like me. After all kinds of assets are allocated properly, Don't chase after things like space randomly. Chasing after things like quantum, Changing your position back and forth, Exchanging back and forth, If you do this, In the end, you will find After being busy for a long time, you didn't earn much money. Finally, let's talk about asset allocation. If your funds are not over $100,000, basically, there's not much to allocate. But that's okay. For friends with less than $100,000, just buy VOO, SPY, QQQ, and add some semiconductor indexes. Regularly, during this period, you need to learn to watch the market, observe politics, and then study various data on investing.com. Various individual stocks Once you have researched all these individual stocks You will find that this $100,000 is just a stepping stone for you As long as you earn $100,000 from your investments You will witness something magical Within 3 to 5 years Your funds will quickly grow to $300,000 to $500,000 Moreover, the growth of this figure Will be shortened to less than 3 years This is a mathematical problem You may not understand until you experience it yourself. By the time this happens, you will personally realize how powerful this compounding is. And at that moment, you will find you don't need to work hard anymore you don't need to worry about the boss's mood anymore, the whole world suddenly becomes clear. Believe me, Well, if you have any more questions, Please leave me a message I will show it to everyone Thank you all See you next time