US-Iran War Analysis: Ground Invasion, Nuclear Risks, and Al-Aqsa Mosque Impact

We continue our analysis of the US Iran war. And in this war, there are three major questions

that will determine the outcome of this war as well as the world afterwards. Okay. And these three questions are

number one, will the US launch a ground invasion? So right now the United States and

Israel are primarily focused on a air war striking um Iran from a distance. In the past we

would call this siege warfare. And as long as it remains an ear war, the United States can choose to

deescalate and withdraw from the Middle East. They would lose this war, but the loss would not be catastrophic.

Whereas if they choose to launch a ground invasion, it would escalate very quickly and they

would be trapped in Iran for the next 5 to 10 years. It would be a catastrophe whether or not they win or lose because

in order to fight a ground war, United States would have to institute a national draft where a young man um as

young as 18 would be forced to join the army and be sent to fight in Iran. Okay, so that's the first big question for us.

Will the United States send in ground troops? Remember this. There's the idea of mission creep where maybe in the

beginning you're like, I'll send out a,000 troops to do a small mission, but then

it doesn't go well. So you send in 2,000. Okay, it slowly creeps up. It's what we call mission creep. That's how

the United States embroiled itself in Vietnam. All right, so that's the first big question. Second big question is,

will nukes be used? There's a lot of concern online that Israel is preparing a

nuclear strike on Iran because the Israelis don't like how the world how how the war is going and they want to

reclaim the initiative. Nukes are a taboo in geopolitics. The Americans used them at the end of

World War II and no one's used them ever since. If Israel were to use tactical nuclear

weapons, they would break this universal taboo and we might find ourselves in a nuclear apocalypse. Okay, so that's a

great concern that everyone has right now. And the third question is the Alax mosque.

This is the third holiest site in the Islamic world. There's Mecca, there's Medina, and there's the Alax mosque. The

the Muslims believe that it is from the alaxic mosque in Jerusalem where Muhammad ascended to heaven

and the Jews believe that the Alexic mosque sits on the site of their temple which is the house of God. So

religious Jews, extremists want to destroy the Alexic moss to rebuild the third temple.

And if the religious Jews, the extremists destroy the Azac mos, then the two billion Muslims in this world

would be religiously obligated to go to war against Ishel. Okay. So these are the three big questions that um uh will

determine how this war will determine the future of the world. Okay. So um in this class I teach you game

theory to make predictions about the future. So right now I'm going to make three predictions.

um and then I'm I will show you my analysis as to how I make these predictions. Okay? Now, what's what's

important to understand is that these are only my guesses based on my analysis and whether or not they turn out correct

will determine the validity of my analysis. I don't have inside information. I don't know more than you

do. Okay? I'm just working out of public knowledge and doing game theory analysis. So according to game theory

this is yes. United States will send in ground troops. According to game theory this is no.

And number three is yes. Okay. So what I'm going to do is my next two classes explaining to you my game

theory analysis as to how I come to these conclusions and we can watch how world events unfold. Now I want you to

understand something which is that for my theory to be valid for my analysis to be valid. I have to be I have to be

correct on all three. Okay? If I miss one then all my theory is wrong. Um, I know there's a lot of concern from

around the world that nukes will be used and I am 100% confident that nukes will not be used at this time in this war.

And if I'm wrong, I apologize to the world. Okay? But at the same time, we'll all be dead anyway, so it doesn't really

matter. All right? Okay. All right. So let me explain my analysis. Okay. So remember today what I'm going to do is

do number one and number two. Explain to you why Israel will not use new weapons and why there will be a ground invasion.

And then next class I'll explain number three to you. Okay. That's a plan for this week.

All right. So to understand what's going on, I need to I need to teach some basic geopolitical theory. Okay. So in

military um affairs in geopolitics there's a concept called escalation ladder.

Escalation ladder. Okay. And the dominant theory is that whoever

has estrogen dominance has the most advantage. Okay. So, so what this means is let's just say you

and I get in a fight. Okay, I have a knife. You have a gun. Well, gun is more dominant than a knife. Therefore, you

have a greater advantage over me and therefore you should win in theory. Okay?

And apply to this war in the Middle East. Israel and United States have escalation dominance because they have

nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't. Therefore, the United States and Israel have a huge advantage over Iran. Okay?

But what I will show you today is that this theory is incorrect. It actually doesn't work that way. Right? So, let's

start off with very simple um example. Let's just say that two people

get into a fight, okay? A and B. And how the escalation ladder will work is that maybe A and B run into each

other. Okay? And then A says, "Hey man, say sorry." And then B is like, "It's not my fault. You say um sorry." Okay?

So there's a conflict and it's usually a very small conflict. No one knows uh why and no one knows who's at fault. Okay?

So they start cursing each other. Okay? So the first step is a conflict. Second step is they start cursing each other,

right? Screw you. Screw you. And then they might start pushing each

other, right? Push. Push. And then they hit each other. Okay. Punch. Punch. And then they

start the fight. And then one pulls out a knife and the other pulls out a gun. All right. and

then B should a fight over right okay so there are certain things that we need to keep in mind about this example first of

all the fight is not contained in itself okay you cannot perceive this game as just one between A and B who's

physically stronger there are other players involved as well okay so for example there are spe spe spe spe spe

spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spe spectators or friends,

there's a crowd watching you. Okay, this is important because there's also the police, right? Eventually the police

will come um the government and they'll ask people, "Hey, what happened, man? Whose

fault was it?" Right? And also for people who are religious, there's also God, right? If you die, you have to go

up to God heaven and God's going to ask you, "Hey, man, how did you die?" So you have to explain how you died. All

right? So in other words, in this escalation ladder, there's three factors that you have to consider that drive

people up this escalation ladder. These three factors are of course emotions. Second uh is power

and the third is reason or logic. Okay? And what drives people up is adrenaline.

In other words, it is impossible to go to skip the escalation ladder, right? You don't go from like, "Hey, screw

you." to like the guy pulling out a gun and shooting you, okay? You have to go step by step by step because adrenaline

is rushing in your system. And this adrenaline, it's making you more angry, but it's also making you stronger and

more resolved. And it's also telling you how to fight this battle. Okay? And the thing to remember about this is this is

really important is that it's not about how fast you climb up the escalation ladder. Okay? If you get too angry and

you overreact, then you are at fault, right? What you want to do is climb it up

strategically. And that means you have to remain calm and controlled. Because if you remain calm, controlled, you have

three advantages over your opponent. The first is um focus, second is clarity, and the

third is um focus uh you you're clear and resolve. Okay,

sorry. Resolve. Okay, what this means is like you know what you're doing. You have a strategy. You are clear about how

to achieve your strategy and your goal and you are determined to achieve it. Okay. But in order to have all three,

you have to remain calm. And therefore, you need to control yourself as you climb up this escalation ladder. Because

remember, it's just not about being your opponent. It's about justifying yourself to your friends, to the police, and to

God as well. Because you might hit that person, he might go to hospital, and you've won the fight, but then you go to

you go you go to prison for 10 years, in which case you've lost the fight. Okay? All right. So the main idea I want you

to remember is this and this is the law of escalation and this is a very important idea in my

game theory model. Control is more important than dominance.

Okay. Control is more important than dominance. Why? Because control is the idea of calibration.

Calibration means that you time or you structure or you strategize your response in a way that helps you achieve

your strategic objective. Okay? You're not just throwing punches. You're throwing a punch in a certain way that

allows you to defend yourself that strikes fear in the opponent and also allows you to seem as the good guy among

spectators. Okay? And then when the police come, you can justify why you threw a punch in a

certain way to the police so that you don't go to jail. Okay? All right. So another way of saying this is that

calibration is ultimately about strategic flexibility. And the idea of strategic flexibility is

in a fight, the person who has the most options, the person who um has the most flexible strategy will

usually win the fight. Okay. There's a lot of escalation and I'll explain to you how this applies to the US Iran war.

Okay. All right. So before I actually talk about the war, what I what I want to do is do is what I want to do is do a

thought experiment to examine how we can understand what's going on between United States and Iran. Okay. So let's

do a thought experiment. And thought experiment is this. Let's just say that there's a bully. Okay.

and he's the biggest guy in the school and he has a gang. Okay, these are his friends

and there's like uh maybe four of them. And so what they do is they basically pray on everyone at the

school. Okay? And there's maybe a hundred people at the school, right? And so what they do is they make

everyone in the cafeteria pay a tax. Okay? If you want to go in the cafeteria and eat, you have to pay a tax. Maybe a

dollar, who knows? Okay? And the friends of the bully go collect the tax and then give him all the money. Okay?

And that is the structure of the school where if you want to eat lunch in the cafeteria, you have to pay a tax and the

bully's friends collect the money and the bully shares the money among amongst his gang. Okay. Now, at first people are

okay with this system because they think that it's actually beneficial because the bully is keeping the peace and order

in that cafeteria, right? He's keeping everyone safe. So yeah, I pay a dollar, but it's not that much money and we're

all safe so that we can all enjoy our lunch in peace in the cafeteria. Okay, but then what happens over time is that

the bully gets more and more arrogant because he feels invincible. Everyone just obeys

him. So he develops the idea of hubris. And the idea of hubris is that no one's no one has the courage to challenge me.

Everyone's afraid of me and therefore I can do what I want. So what does he do? Well, the first thing he does is that he

charges more money from everyone. Okay? So the tax goes up and so people are disgruntled about this. Okay? They they

don't understand why they're paying more to the bully. Okay? But not only that, but what he will also do is pay less

money to his friends so that he can have more money because he wants to buy a car or he wants to go to Paris for the

summer. Okay, does that make sense? Okay. So, everyone's not happy about this, but but this the reality that they

live in and there's nothing they can do about it and so people just put up with it. One day a new kid comes into the

school. Okay, the new kid and he doesn't really understand the rules of the game. He goes to cafeteria

and he doesn't know he's supposed to pay a tax, right? So the bully's friend comes over and says, "Hey man, where's

where's the dollar?" And he's like, "What dollar? I just got here." And he refuses to pay. And so what they decide

to do is teach him a lesson by ostracizing him, by making him sit alone by himself in the cafeteria. Okay? You

have no friends because you don't know the rules and you refuse to play along. And the new kid is like, "I don't care.

I'm happy not having any friends." Okay? And so then the bullying and his friends start to discuss, "How can we get this

new kid to play along?" And so they decide what they're going to do is they're going to curse him.

They're going to bully him. Okay? So the new kid goes to lunch and he's eating his lunch and the friends come down and

start to curse him. Says, "You're a wimp. Do you want to fight us?" And what the new kid does is he just ignores

the these these guys. And these guys are like, "What's going on, man? Why is he afraid of us?" And slowly what happens

is that the other people, the other kids recognize that, wow, maybe it is possible to rebel against

the bully. Maybe it is possible not to pay these stupid taxes. And so they start talking to him

secretly. Okay? They give him presents. They start say smile at him. They say hi to him. Okay? But the new kid just

ignores everything, right? And then the friends are like, "You know what? We don't actually benefit this

much from this relationship anyway. Maybe if we appoint this new kid as the new bully, the new boss, he'll treat us

better." And then you have other friends who are like, "You know what? This bully, he's he's fat, he's ugly. Maybe I

should be the boss." Okay. So just because a new kid comes in doesn't know the rules and he's willing to challenge

the reality, challenge the assumptions, the values of this cafeteria. Now there's descent. Now there's

rebellion going on. Okay? And different people are talking to him and um trying to form alliances with him.

But what he does, and it's really really interesting, is that he just ignores everyone and keeps focused. Okay. And

then one day, um, the bully's friend comes over and says, "You know what? You're a whip." And the new kid finally

says, "I'm not afraid of you." Okay. And then this friend goes back and tells his boss, "Hey, this new kid said, "He's not

afraid of you, man. What are you going to do about it?" The new and the bully gets really angry. Says, "I'm going to

go punch his face." Okay. So, the bully goes in front of Nuke and says, "If you don't apologize,

I'm going to punch YOU IN THE FACE." And the kid is like, "What did I do wrong? What should I apologize for?" And the

bully's kind of confused. So, he goes away, comes out next, AND SAYS, "YOU APOLOGIZE NOW, MAN." AND THE kid's like,

"Okay, for what? Tell me tell me to apologize for what?" And this goes on for a long time, okay? And then

eventually the bully gets so pissed off that he punches the new kid in the face. Okay, so he started it. The new kid he's

he's he's um uh hurt, but he decides to punch the bully back in the face. Okay, and the bully stronger, so he beats the

bully up. So he beats up the new kid. But what's happened now is that everyone in the school has seen that the bully is

not that strong. everyone's seen that the bully is actually um pretty weak and so they recognize that hey if we stand

alongside the new kid we can beat the bully. All right and eventually what happens is

the bully is defeated. Does that make sense to you guys? All right. So certain things to understand is that yes,

the bully has escalation dominance because he's stronger and he's the biggest kid in the school. He he can

beat up everyone. But what wins the fight is control. What wins the fight is collaboration. Uh sorry, calibration,

strategic flexibility. the fact that the new kid has many different options and he's picking the

option that is most strategically advantaged to him. Okay. Now, and what you will notice from

this example is the bully doesn't have that many options actually because he needs to maintain the idea of face or

credibility. Right? This is the essence of his power. The his power lies in the fact that if you

do not listen to him, if you not obey him, he will come and beat the crap out of you, right? That's credibility.

And but the moment that you show that is that actually it's actually not that big of a deal to be punched by him. He's not

that strong. Then he loses all credibility. Okay, which means that he either retreats or he's forced to strike

harder to kill you. Okay, to maintain his credibility. So, another way of saying this is that

um by calibrating your movements strategically, you can manipulate the bully into selfdestruction.

Does it make sense, you guys? All right, any questions? Okay, so that's a theory.

All right, so now what we're going to do is we're going to apply this theory, the law of escalation to what's happening in

the Middle East. Okay, we're going to do that by looking at the escalation ladders of both Iran and the United

States. All right. Okay, this is the US. This is Iran.

Okay, so let's look at the escalation ladder. So the first thing that United States does of course is something

called decapitation. What is decapitation? Decapitation is like I just kill your leaders. You don't

have any more leaders and therefore you don't know what to do and therefore you surrender. Okay, that's the first thing

the US did. It didn't work. So now the United States is doing is attacking military targets, air defense

and military bases. Okay, that's the second second step. And the idea is that you beat the crap

out of the military so they surrender. But that didn't work either. Okay. So then what you do next of course is

economic embargo where you basically prevent Iran from trading with the world right

prevent Iran from selling oil to China basically by blockading the seas and the idea here is that if the government

doesn't have any money pay it soldiers it soldiers will just not fight okay but that didn't but that's not either. So

then what you do of course is you attack civilian infrastructure,

okay, which is primarily water and oil. So you may have seen the news that the Israelis attacked an oily pot in Tran.

And now you look if you look at pictures of Tran, it's all black. Okay? And this is a war crime or this goes against

international law because you're attacking civilians. That's but that's what you do when you feel as though you

need to apply more pressure to win this war. Okay? And so you can keep on escalating.

Um and then what you do is that now the now that you've attacked the civilians and they still refuse to surrender, what

you do now is you use secret weapons. Secret weapons might be advanced missiles that no one's ever seen before.

Okay? And the and the point of these secret weapons is to scare the crap out of people and say, "You see how dominant

we are?" Okay? If that doesn't work, then what you do next is use biological and chemical weapons. Okay? Biochemical

weapons doesn't work either. then guys nuclear weapons.

All right. So what's really important for us to understand is that you must follow this escalation ladder if you are

to use nuclear weapons. And the reality is that first of all we have not seen weapons. We have not seen biochemical

weapons and therefore nuclear weapons comes later. Okay? Unless I see biochemical weapons being used, I refuse

to believe that nuclear weapons is on the table. Okay. All right. So, I think we are here, which is the beginning of

attacks on civilian infrastructure, but already we're seeing um arguments in the American political

system against the use of um weapons against civilians. Okay? And the reason why is that if you do this, okay, if you

destroy civil infrastructure, you unite the people behind the government because the idea is that you

use air strikes to split apart the government and the people and you want the people to overthrow the government

for you. Okay, that's that's the idea here. Um, so we are at this stage, meaning that we have a long way to go

before we hit nuclear weapons. Okay. All right. So now let's look at the uh Iranian um escalation ladder. So what's

happening is that in the beginning Iran does um um two major things. Okay. The first is

attack uh military targets. Okay. And what they're basically targeting are

US radar systems and air defenses because once these two things go then Iran can attack whatever it wants. Okay.

It's also closed to moose. All right. And by closing the st you put pressure on the economies of the GCC as

well as East Asia. The hope is that um by blockading the economies the GCC uh UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahan, Qatar, Kuwait

will put pressure on Donald Trump to end this war as quickly as possible. Also um East Asia receives most of its oil

from the GCC from the Shumus, right? So China gets about 40% of its oil. Japan gets 75%. Um that's a lot of oil. So the

hope is that these countries will put pressure on the United States to end this war as soon as possible. Okay? So

that is the uh Iranian strategy. But if they're forced to go up the escalation ladder, what will happen is this. If you

attack their economy, they will attack your economy as well. Okay? With missiles, basically targeting oil

fields. If you attack their civil infrastructure, they will attack your

civil infra infrastructure as well. And what is the main weakness in these GCC countries? Desalination plants. Okay,

desalination plants. And that's it. Okay, that's the extent of the Iranian

escalation ladder because it doesn't have nuclear weapons. It doesn't have biochemical weapons. Okay? It doesn't

have intercontinental missiles that it can target the United States with. So as you can see, oh the

US and Israel have escalation dominance because it can go up way up higher in escalation escalation ladder than Iran.

But that's the wrong way to understand this. Okay? Because if you look at their strategies, Iran has much more

flexibility, much more calibration than the United States. Okay? When the United States attacks you, it's pretty

blunt. But look, if I close all the short moves, I can be strategic in how I close the show moves. For example, if

you're a Chinese ship, I let you pass. For example, if you are a GCC nation and you want to bribe me, you want you want

to pay me a tax, I let you pass as well. If you're a GC TCC nation, you're like, you know what, forget the United States.

I want to be a friend Iran, I let you pass as well. You understand? So by closing all the swivel moves, it creates

a calibration strategy. It allows Iran to selectively and strategically apply pressure to the friends of the United

States so that they become the friends of Iran. Okay. Same thing with these drone strikes um against oil fields and

military targets, right? If you attack me, I attack you with drones. But if you don't attack me, then

I don't attack you. Okay? So in other words, okay, this is really important idea.

The US and Iran have different military

decision trees. Okay? All right. So let me explain how. Because United States and Israel,

they're just attacking Iran. Okay. And they attack with air power. So that's very blunt, right? Okay. So you

go from one step to the next to the next to the next. Okay. This is this the classic escalation ladder. Iran is not

like this. Their decision tree is different. Okay? Because their strategy is to force United States to omit defeat

and retreat from the GCC. Okay. To close down the military bases in the Middle East so that Iran has control over the

surgical moves and therefore it can control all world trade. All right. So that's a strategy. So this

strategy means that you have different options. All right. Your options are um attack Israel

um your mil military targets civil targets Tel Aviv. Okay. All right. So I don't want to spend too much time on

this but as you can see um if you think about it Iran can be much more selective in its targeting than United States and

Israel and therefore the options that it has it is much more diverse

which gives Iran escalation control over the situation. Okay. Do you guys do you guys do you guys understand this?

All right. So, let's look at why Iran has uh advantages over the gas station. Okay. US

Iran. The first major difference is that Iran is active

whereas the US is passive. Okay. Another thing this is go back to the bully example where the bully has to maintain

credibility. He has to show that he's more powerful than the other than the other kids, right? So if you provoke

him, he has no choice in the matter but to hit you. Okay? But you the new kid can choose whether or not to provoke him

or not. You can choose the timing of when to provoke him. Therefore, you are active. Okay. The second big difference

is that Iran has a clear strategy. It knows what it wants to accomplish and uh it knows how to accomplish what it

wants. Remember what what Iran wants is control the moose and the United States out of the Middle East. That's what it

wants to do. And it's calibrating its attacks in a certain way to achieve this end goal and it's working out very well

for Iran. Okay. The United States on the other hand doesn't know what it wants. It wants to destroy Iran. What does that

mean? Okay, destroy. It could mean regime change. It could mean economy collapses. It could mean um

the civilian population stars. Okay, it could mean anything. But because there's so much ambiguity, so much confusion

about what it means, it confuses military strategy. Right? And the last thing is of course

is that Iran is flexible and United States is inflexible. Okay. So by studying the escalation

ladder we discover that Iran has far more advantages than the United States. Okay. All right. So what so what does

this mean? All right. It means that Iran will probably win this war ultimately. But

um it has there has to be major changes to society in order to win this war. Right? So remember to win a fight you

have to have three things. Focus um clarity and resolve. All right.

You have to know what your purpose is. You have to know how to achieve it and you have to have you have to be

determined to achieve it. Okay. So, what does this mean for the Middle East? What does it mean for Iran? What first thing

is focus means unity? Meaning that you have to unite your population which means basically

crushing all descent. You can't we can't argue anymore. We have to unify for a purpose. Okay. The second thing clarity

is to uh censor people. Censorship. And we're already seeing that in Israel where you're not allowed to film

military strikes. Okay? If a drone comes and attacks Tel Aviv in Israel, you cannot film that and put on on social

media. Okay? The government will come and arrest you. Same thing in Dubai. you cannot show uh Dubai being attacked.

Okay, so massive censorship going on and resolve just means militarization where the Middle East moves towards

total war. Total war just means that every citizen now is recruited into the war effort. It just means that the

entire economy is geared towards um war. Okay. And um one last point I'll make is this. What we need to understand

about the escalation ladder is that as it moves up, we have to remember that this war is being fought

multi-dimensionally. Okay, what does that mean? It means that the military is just one dimension, but

there are four major dimensions. There are others, but let's focus on four major dimensions. Okay, the first major

dimension is narrative. Narrative is basically world opinion. Second

um is political. Political just means the relationship of nations to each other. The relationship of the n of the

government to the people. Okay. Political. The third dimension is economical economic

and the fourth is military. And what's really important to understand is that the military

dimension is probably the least important. There are other dimensions that are much more important.

Therefore, these four factors determine how the United States and Iran move up the escalation ladder. Okay? Because

your purpose is to control the narrative and justify why you're doing what you're doing. Uh political means you you still

have to maintain good relations with other states, right? So as United States is fighting this war against Iran,

United States is is still talking to China. United States is still talking to Russia. Okay. So that discussion that

political discussion determines the contours of this fight. Economic means that as the fight is still happening,

nations are still trading with each other and that factors into how the military is fought. Okay, does that make

sense? So I know this is very complicated but you need you need to understand how complicated war is. It's

not as simple as saying you know what let's nuke that guy. Doesn't work that way. Okay. There are a lot of

constraints. There's a lot of factors a lot of stakeholders involved to constrain the use of nukes. Okay. All

right. All right. So let's now discuss ground troops. All right. Right. The first question we look at is will ground

troops be used and the answer unfortunately is yes. They have to be used and it has to do with how the

military works okay of how wars are fought. Basically when you fight a war you have to have a correct cost pyramid.

Okay. And the most simple cost pyramid, okay, is is this

infantry soldiers, okay? All right. They're at the bottom. Why? Because they're the cheapest.

What's above them? Armor. Okay. Artillery, tanks. They're more expensive to produce. You

need more resources. You need more time. Then you have naval, right? Then you have ear.

Okay, it doesn't make sense. This is the cost pyramid. And cost pyramid just is this question of like how much energy,

how much time, how much resources do you need, do do you need to produce a certain product. Okay, it cost you very

little to prod produce a soldier, but it cost you a lot to produce an airplane. This is important because wars are

usually wars of attrition meaning that you have to put all your resources into winning the war. Okay. So this is just

um production capacity and this is the most standard model that you have of a cost pyramid for a

military war. Okay, does it make sense guys? The problem is that the United States have an inverse pyramid. Okay.

Meaning that ear is what's dominant, then naval, then

uh armor, then soldiers. You can't fight a war like this. I mean, the moment you choose to fight a war

like this, you've lost the war because you either take out the country in like two days or you screwed over because you

cannot replenish your forces. Now I I I know this is hard to understand but 1991 the Persian Gulf War, 2003 the Iraq war,

these are not real wars, okay? Because the Americans were so dominant and Iraq was so weak that it was basically a

video game. All right, this is these these pilots flying around is bombing everything. Okay, it's like guys and

tanks just running over the ar the Iraqi army. Those were just video games. But this Iran thing is a real war and

therefore you cannot fight a war like this. If you want to win this war, the only thing you can do is return

to a realistic cost pyramid. You don't have a choice in the matter, right? Because again, your cheapest

um product are soldiers, right? And your most expensive are airplanes. You cannot afford to use an

airplane in order to site to save a life of a soldier. Eventually, this costbenefit analysis will blow up on

you. Okay? Okay. Does that make sense, guys? All right. So, United States wants to win

this war, then it has no choice but to use ground troops to use soldiers as the main force of its military. Any

questions so far? All right. Okay. Now the question then is will the United States use ground

troops? I already said that if United States is to win this war, it has no choice but to use ground troops. But

will the United States use ground troops? And a lot is determined by the game theory strategies of the different

players. Okay. So let's look at the four major players in this war. You have US, you have Israel,

you have Saudi Arabia, and you have Iran. Okay. All right. So, United States and

Iran, they're pretty easy to understand. What the United States wants to do is destroy Iran.

Okay? Why? Because if you destroy Iran, United States would have complete control over Middle East oil

and it would control global trade for the straight of humus and therefore the United States can maintain its empire.

Okay, so a really simple objective, let's destroy Iran. We don't care how, we don't care why, let's just go do it.

Okay, Iran has another strategy which is control straight moose

and destroy sencom. Sencom is basically uh the

American military in the Middle East called central command. Okay. So those those are two major military objectives

of Iran and we can understand why because if sitcom is destroyed Iran has complete control over the Middle East.

Now Dubai, now uh Oman, Ban, Kuwait have to pay taxes to Iran. Now Iran, the new kid

is now the bully of the Middle East. Right now it's a hgeimon. That is the political objective of this war. Okay.

Um Israel is a bit more complicated. All right. For Israel, oh sorry, sorry, sorry. One other thing is humble Israel.

That that's the other thing because even even if you defeat the United States, you still have to deal with Israel,

okay? And Israel is the great military power of the Middle East. So you want to humble them. You want to weaken them.

You can't destroy Israel because Israel has nuclear weapons, right? You piss off Israel, those nukes start flying. You

don't want that, right? So those are the three major political objectives for Iran. Control the moves, destroy SNCOM,

and humble Israel. Okay? If you are Israel actually for you

the strategy is different. What you want to do is this. You want to destroy Sencom

and destroy Iran. Okay, those are objectives. Why? Because if you destroy both United States and

you destroy Iran, then you are the sole hegeimon in the Middle East. Okay? also destroy the GCC,

destroy Saudi Arabia as well. Why? Because once Saudi Arabia is destroyed, all its resources belong to you. Okay?

And then this creates something called the Greater Israel Project, which is what we will discuss next class. But as

you can see, that's really important is that even though United States and Israel are allies,

their automo strategy is different. Their objectives are different. In fact, they're in conflict. Okay. They have

Saudi Arabia. What does Saudi Arab Arabia want to do? Well, destroy Iran because if you destroy Iran, you have

complete control of the moves. Then you you can be a bully. Okay? But you also want to destroy

the US and you want to humble Israel. All right? Does that make sense? All right. So by understanding how each

player perceives the game, we can now understand how they will go about their strategy. Right? So the United States

just wants to destroy Iran. But as you can see, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran all want to destroy the United States.

And how do you do that? You do that by forcing the United States into a long ground war.

Right? Therefore, if you're Israel, you don't want to use nukes. Why? Because nukes

would end the war too quickly. You want to drag this war out as long as possible to force the United States to send in

ground troops. And you're like, well, why doesn't the United States use nuclear weapons? And

the answer I is already told you the escalation ladder. It needs to justify justify itself to the to the people.

Okay? When you do anything, all right, when you do anything, sorry, when you do anything, you have to

worry about certain factors. Okay? You have to worry about troop morale. Your soldiers have to believe that they

are fighting for a good cause. Okay? You have to worry about public opinion. You have to make sure that the world is

on your side. You have to worry about politics, political will. You have to make sure the people are unified. Uh,

and you have to worry about enemy morale. You don't want to piss off the person,

your enemy so much that they go into an extreme, uh, they jump the escalation ladder to too to extreme beyond beyond

your control. Okay, does that make sense? Okay. So, as you can see, war is extremely complicated. It's not just

about weaponry. It's not just about um resources. It's ultimately about controlling the narrative, controlling

the political landscape. Okay? Marshalling the resources in a proper way that is strategically beneficial.

All right? Does that make sense to you guys? Okay. So, um yeah. So, we we just answered two

questions. Will the NC use ground troops? Yes, it will because Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will work together to

force a ground invasion even though the United States doesn't want to do so. But unfortunately, United States doesn't

have a clear coherent strategy. It's passive. Therefore, it can be manipulated into sending a ground

invasion. Okay. And the second question is, will Israel, United States use nuclear weapons? And the answer is no

because it's not in their best interest to use nuclear weapons. Okay? Israel wants the United States to lose this

war. And that means a long war that destroys the American political will to fight any more foreign wars. If America

loses, Israel becomes the dominant power in the Middle East. Okay. And so the last question is the Alaxic

Mosque and we will answer that next class on Thursday. Any questions? Will will Americans take over Iran like

what they did to Venezora like they captured their president? Okay, look. The strategy in the

beginning was to do a Venezuela in Iran, meaning you go in, you kill the leader, a new leader emerges, negotiate with

you, and and surrender to you because you're too powerful. Okay? But Venezuela and Iran are two very different

countries. The Venezuelan elite is very pro-American, meaning that their their wealth, their children, their family is

stored in America. Therefore, the Venezuelan elite have invested interest in negotiating a deal with America to

protect their own interests. But for uh 40 plus years, America has sanctioned the Iranian elite and Iran has become

poor and angry and disgruntled because of that. Therefore, they have they lose nothing by fighting you. Okay? So, even

though you've killed the supreme leader and you've killed many of their leaders, in fact, the elite themselves are

unified in opposing you. Okay. Does that make sense? Okay. Any more questions? Uh yep.

Um Allan >> so I in fact have a question about the motivation of US to involve in this war.

like uh as you said that US want to control all the all the oil so like they must destroy Iran but I I think this is

like a little bit confusing because uh I think US know that this war is really uh highly risk and it can potentially even

like destroy the whole systems. So why US risk the the the risk of like whole system collapsing to like control the

oil that Iran had? Okay. All right. So, this is the um key question that everyone's arguing about. Quite

honestly, we're going to argue this for the rest of eternity. Okay. We're we're going to argue this for eternity because

like no one knows and there's never going to be a clear answer. In fact, there are multiple possibilities. Okay?

What what I'm going to do today is offer you the most simple explanation. In the next class, I will offer you a much more

complicated explanation. Okay? But simple explanation is this. Again, this goes back to military doctrine. Um, how

the United States military works. Okay? And the military doctrine is prevent the heartland from arising. Right? So,

United States is here. This is Europe. This is Russia.

This is Iran. India, China,

Japan, this is um Middle East and this is Africa. All right. So the

American military doctrine is this. The greatest threat to American power is the heartland unifying.

Okay? Why? Because if the heartland unifies, it can trade by itself through railways.

But America is primary a naval power. Therefore, it requires people to trade by sea.

Okay? And so its strategy is to make sure there's never any cohesion in the heartland

either by making sure that no great power arises in the heartland. And that's why America went went to war in

World War I and World War II because there's a great fear that Germany would conquer the world or Europe and Asia and

create the heartland. Okay? Therefore, America has to stop Germany from rising. Um so you either make sure no great

power arises or you create so much conflict that they're always fighting each other. And that used to work

before. Okay. Now there's a problem. The problem is the bricks nations Russia, Iran and China are coming together and

if they come together guys that's a major piece of the heartland and everyone else Europe Middle East Africa

with India was probably follow because this is easier to trade in the heartland it is trade with America especially with

the US dollar declining right so in other words United States has no no choice but to fight this war

because That's their entire strategy to maintain hegemony in the world to prevent the heartland from unifying.

All right? Does that make sense? Because like once you destroy Iran, the heartland fractures.

There's no way that they can now trade together anymore. They're still reliant on American

um maritime routes. Okay. America maintains the head is still the hedgeimon because it controls world

trade. Whoever controls world trade controls the world. Whoever controls the heartland controls world trade. Okay.

Does that make sense? Okay. But this is just one explanation. There's actually other explanations and I I'll go into a

more complicated explanation next class. All right. Any more questions? Yep. So you mentioned Saudi Arabia and how it

wants to see the downfall of both uh the US and Iran. >> He wants to see the downfall of Israel,

US and Iran. >> Yeah. And to me that sounds like a pretty big goal. And how would you say

how would they possibly use their strategy to achieve that goal or how would it possibly be for Saudi Arabia?

>> Okay. All right. So, it's very confusing to people why Saudi Arabia is actually against Iran. Okay. But actually, if you

go back and look at their history, they have major conflicts with each other. All right. So, let's go over uh some

some of their conflicts. All right. So, uh Saudi Arabia, Iran, the first major conflict is that Iran is

a theocracy and Saudi Arabia is a monarchy. A theocracy just means that you're ruled

by clerics who represent God. A monarchy is a king who represents God. And for the Iranians, that is blasphemy. That's

heresy. That's against the religion. Okay? So Saudi Arabia and Iran hate each other. Saudi Arabia sees Iran as a

threat and trying to induce a revolution within Saudi Arabia. Iran sees Saudi Arabia as blasphemous. Okay.

And it's a huge issue because Saudi Arabia is the home of Mecca Medina, the two holiest sites in the Islamic world.

Okay. Second issue is that uh Saudi Arabia is Sunni and Shia uh and Iran is Shia. So these are two different sects

of the same religion, but it's like Protestants and Catholics. They just hate each other. Okay. Um Okay. And the

last thing is that Iran uh is anti-US and Shiat and Saudi Arabia is pro- US. What this means is that Saudi Arabia has

military bases, American military bases inside of the Holy Land. And for the Iranians, that is the worst crime,

right? Because it's infidels who are protecting the Holy Land. Infidels are not allowed in the Holy Land, right?

You're not if if you're not a Muslim, you're not allowed to go to Mecca. All right.

All right. So, Saudi Arabia and Iran hate each other. Saudi Arabia has a huge problem in that it is an oil economy.

It's most of its GDP comes from or exports. And for the longest time, it was trying to build a notch economy. It

was trying to build tourism. It was trying to promote games. Okay. does not work. So if you're Saudi Arabia and you

see the future, it's a pretty dismal future because eventually your oil is going to run out. Eventually people are

going to switch to electrical vehicles digitization which means that oil is no longer so imported. Okay. So what you

need to do is if you're able to control the Middle East, right? So where where you get your money now is from trade

access. That's a viable future. If you just sit back and wait, eventually

your nation is going to run out of oil and therefore it's going to cease to exist. Okay? So, Saudi Arabia needs to

act now and it needs and the way that it wants to act is it wants to create a conflict between United States, Israel

and Iran where they destroy each other. Once they destroy each other, Saudi River can come up on top. Now, Israel

cannot be destroyed because Israel has nuclear weapons. But the goal is to negotiate a peace with Israel after the

war is over. Right? Does it make sense? To split the Middle East between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

But will Israel agree to this deal? Probably not. But according to game theory, Saudi Arabia has no choice in

this matter because it is so far behind everyone else. Okay? You can only hope that this chaos leads to new

possibilities because given the structure of the game so far, it does not have a very good future. Okay, does

that make sense? All right, any more questions, guys? All right. Okay, great questions. So,

please continue to follow the war. Okay, so you have to follow the war and understand what's going on. And in this

class, what I'm doing is I'm providing you the game theory analysis for you to understand what's happening and why it's

happening and where this war is going. Okay? Again, the three big predictions I make

um and we'll know in the next year or two if these things three things happen or not is the United States will send in

ground troops. It has no choice in the matter if it wants to win this war or continue this war. There will be no

nuclear weapons being used. Again, I will apologize to the world if new glorins are are used. Okay. The third is

that the Alexic mosque will be destroyed at some point and it's something I will talk about next