Analyzing the Iran-Israel Conflict: Current Developments and Implications

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in the Middle East with the conflict between Iran and

Israel. Alexander, your your thoughts. We're we're four days into this now. We're entering the the fourth day or

four days into this. What are your thoughts on on what's been happening? I I if you go back and look at our various

programs, I mean, we were discussing the fact that this was plainly a regime change operation. I mean, that was its

major purpose. And we also said, and this is, you know, what we've been consistently saying in

our various programs, actually, if I can interrupt you real quick, you said two you said two days before the strikes,

the Israeli strikes, you said they're going to Israel is going to launch decapitation strikes. I think you were

exact. I don't know how how did you know about that? Or how did you guess how did you guess about that is a better

question. How did I guess? Oh, it was because it's what the Israelis have been doing. I mean it has been their

consistent practice in the last year um in their various conflicts around the Middle East. They did this they they

they did this in Lebanon as we saw on a big scale. They've done this with Hamas. They've tried to do this not so far with

great success with the Houthies. So it was logical that they would try to do this with Iran because that is the only

way if we're talking about Iran specifically that is the only way that they could achieve quickly the result

that they wanted which was regime change in Iran because it's clear that Israel does not have the capacity to attack and

destroy Iran's nuclear facilities in four and Is Fahan and the rest where which are buried deep underground inside

mountains. So it was logical that they would go for decapitation strikes and that's exactly what they've tried to do.

And um there's been all kinds of um discussion about how successful they've been and they have been successful up to

a certain point. They've killed a lot of nuclear scientists. Some say up to 14. They've killed um a fair number of very

senior military officers as we have discussed in many programs and this is before by the way this conflict began.

Um Hezbollah and Iran have a catastrophically bad security and counterintelligence uh uh situation. I

mean there they seem to be infiltrated um to an extreme degree to the point where Iran is not only able to launch

drones. Israel is not only able to launch drones to attack targets inside Iran

from within Iran itself on a continuing scale. But we've seen car bomb attacks. We've got reports that um uh officials

that and scientists have actually been killed by assassins over the course of this operation. Um clearly um Israel has

been operating sleeper cells inside Iran and has been able to use them to deadly effect and it is incredible and

astonishing that Iran has not been able to get on top of this and um that they haven't managed to um succeed in

combating it. Um Israel has also proved very effective especially in the first few hours in its cyber attacks against

Iran. They were able to lock down the entire air defense system of Iran for apparently eight hours. And again, it's

extraordinary given that Iran has been subjected to cyber attacks by Israel in the past. And given that Iran is now on

good terms with two superpowers, Russia and China, that have particular skill in dealing with cyber attacks, that Iran

again was caught uh um you know um exposed to these attacks, but and this is this is an important we now have to

use that word but but the Israelis have not so far managed to achieve their objective. There were reports in the US

media yesterday that the Israelis had uh um the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Hame in their sites that the United States

Donald Trump vetoed the attack on him. It's important to stress that all of this information is coming from Israeli

sources. Um Netanyahu himself is going out and pretending to contradict this information. It could be and I I mean

I'm just throwing out guesses here that the Israelis weren't able to reach Ham and are blaming the failure on Trump

which would not surprise me or it could be that Trump for whatever reason decided that he really would put the

stop to an assassination attempt on Kame presumably because he still hopes at some point to do some kind of deal with

the Iranians. But anyway, the key thing is that the regime, and I use that word regime because what we are talking about

is regime change, an attempt at regime change. The regime, the government of Iran is still standing. They've been

able to replace all their military officials and they've been able to hit back and um they've been able to hit and

destroy targets inside Israel. We don't have a full picture of the damage that Iran has been able to do, but

impressions and all we have are impressions. impressions are that it is extensive, not just damage in, you know,

Tel Aviv, the downtown in Tel Aviv and in Hifur, but that actual military bases have been hit and um that the I Israeli

air defense system has become overstretched. And the point that we made in certain programs that we have

done since the start of this began is that if Israel cannot achieve a regime change quickly, the risk it runs is that

it will find itself in a long-term war of attrition against a country Iran which is many, many times bigger than

itself, 10 times the population, far more in terms of land mass with a significant industrial and science base

and therefore with resources which will start to weigh in the balance over the course the long-term course of a

prolonged war. And we are starting to get more and more people including some people in mainstream media and many more

by the way in independent and social media who are starting to say the same thing. And you can start to get a sense

that maybe just possibly Israel is starting to run out of air defense missiles so that more Iranian missiles

are able to get through and strike targets. and that the Israeli Air Force itself, which is not adapted to

prolonged sustained combat over months, is also starting to

show signs of getting worn down. So that now brings us to the key point because I think what I've just said is the

emerging consensus. I we we predicted it on these programs, but it is now the emerging consensus that Israel is facing

a war of attrition. So what are they doing? And it's exactly what you would expect them to do and exactly what we

said would happen and why um the Americans, Donald Trump especially, was absolutely reckless in letting this

thing um take the shape that it has. What they're now doing is they're turning to the United States and they're

saying to the United States, "Help us. We can't do this ourselves. We can't destroy the nuclear facilities in Ford

especially. We've tried, but we failed. We need you to come in and attack with your big bombers and your um you know,

your bunker busting bombs and all of that. U we need you to help us um defeat Iran because if we don't defeat Iran,

this will be a catastrophe for you because Iran will emerge far stronger. And already we're starting to see

Lindsey Graham, the president, the acting press foreign policy president of the United States as you have correctly

called him. He's now doing the um the television. and he's going from one channel to another and he's banging the

table and he's demanding that the United States should join the war against Iran. So that I think is where we're heading.

It now we're now looking at a situation where Donald Trump how whatever role he has played in this is caught between

escalating the war and the United States joining in which will upset his base and nobody should be under any doubt about

this. Um we've had information about what the various members of his base, the key people of his base are saying.

Um the Federalist for example, which is perhaps you know the intellectual wing of the AMA movement. Um I mean they

maintained a stony silence over this affair. They've not published a single article about the conflict with Iran.

They've never said a single thing supportive of what Trump, the United States, or Israel are doing. So, I mean,

that gives you a sense of how they feel about this. They've not published any articles at all. In fact, it's as if it

wasn't happening. But others are starting to become more outspoken. So, if he attacks Iran, he is infuriating

his base. He is propelling the United States into what could easily turn into a long-term conflict with Iran, which

would be for him personally a political catastrophe and for the United States potentially a geopolitical catastrophe

depending on how strong Iran is in withstanding the blow. And if he doesn't if he doesn't intervene,

he risks having Israel visibly defeated in a way that can again only rebound on him. So I he's put himself and the

United States in an impossibly bad situation. It doesn't look as if Israel's decapitation strikes are going

to succeed. and it's not clear at all what he's going to try to do. We've had an interesting

telephone call between Putin and Trump. Um you did a program about this yesterday in which you said that Putin

is offering Trump um a a way out. You said it was an angry call. I think it is. Right. Okay.

I've had conversations about this with Ray McGovern and I who obviously is much more familiar with Russian readouts than

me, but um Ray McGovern doesn't think it was an angry call. He thinks I'm putting I'm misunderstanding the meaning of one

word in Ushakov's um statement which is sincere. He thinks that on the contrary, the word sincere is imolient,

not angry. But if you look at some of the things that Putin is saying, I mean, they do come across as very angry. I

mean, he's talking about, you know, an um um absolutely unacceptable act of, you know, actions by Israel. He's

talking about the fact that the attack took place 3 days before talks began. He's making it absolutely clear that as

far as he's concerned, that makes it aggression, which it is, I think, under international law. But there is now talk

out there of Russia acting as a mediator between the between Israel and Iran. Now what that would mean by the way is that

the United States presumably would take a step back. It would end the process of trying to negotiate between um itself

and Iran a new nuclear deal and the negotiation would be handled by the Russians who would presumably be

negotiating as third parties no longer between the United States and Iran, which is what the Immanis have been

doing, but between Israel itself and Iran. And that might very well be um the way out if a way out is possible. And

over his last couple of comments, you can see that Trump is trying to run with this idea. Whether Netanyahu is

interested, whether the Iranians are interested is a completely different question.

Yeah. Um what what happens when the US or or or how will the US get involved if Trump does not take uh Putin's offramp?

Uh because you are getting uh reports that the US is starting to move significant military assets into the

Middle East. Uh now there there are reports that a lot of fuel depots were hit in in Israel by Iranian missiles and

a lot of the assets may be connected to those fuel depots being hit. Yes. We we don't know, but there's a lot of

movement and it does look like the US is preparing for something. Yes. Um will they will they attack Iran? Is this some

is this some sort of show of strength from from Trump? Um there are reports that maybe these assets are going

elsewhere because there's going to be some sort of um military uh training operation I believe in in uh in Finland

or or something like that. So, I mean there's there there are reports that that this could be in preparation for a

strike or this could be something else, but it does look like Trump's preparing for something or at least posturing to

prepare for something. So my question is if Trump decides to not take Putin's offramp, which would be a very stupid

thing to do, but Lindsey Graham has caught on to this that Putin is is thinking of mediating

and Lindsey Graham sent the message to Trump pretty much, don't you dare. Yeah. Uh how does how does a US involvement

look? Well, indeed, let just a few things to say before we we get to that absolutely key point. One thing I think

one has to say is this that we've been hearing an awful lot about the effectiveness of the Israeli air defense

system. I'm sure you remember when we were in Hungary a few months ago, we spoke to a Hungarian military official

who said that as between Russia and Israel, Israel's air defense system was far better than Russia's and was far and

away the best in the world. We can see that that is not true. I mean, however many missiles, Iranian missiles and

drones, Israel has been able to shoot down, it seems that Iran is launching fewer

missiles and drones against Israel than Russia is launching against Ukraine. And yet, a significant number of those

missiles and drones are getting through. And that's why things like fuel depots, the wisemen institute, apparently uh an

important Israeli air base have all been struck and the significant damage has been done. So I think this is an

important thing to say because it comes back to the question that you're posing about what the United States um might

do. It does look as if Iran does have a potent missile strike capability. The Israelis also tried to knock it out and

clearly they have failed to do so. Um there's lots of talk that many of the missile launchers that Israel thought it

was destroying are actually decoys and that in fact most of the missiles that Iran is are launch is launching against

Israel are actually being launched from underground silos. So, it's a completely different picture. It looks as if from

the one that maybe the Israelis and the Americans assumed that the Americans and the Israelis assumed that Israel's air

defense system would be able to absorb the blow. It turns out that they can't. So, that now brings us to the question

of what all all of these massive military deployments are all about. I have to say that when I see their scale,

two US Navy carriers, a British carrier, the what actual help that will provide is another matter.

Huge numbers of troop movements. Plus, we have US bombers, apparently, stealth bombers, uh, deployed in Diego Garcia,

and they've been there for some time. Um, I can't help but think that this looks to me like the United States

preparing to enter the conflict directly against Iran. In other words, that they are at least considering or at least

some some people in the Pentagon and the National Security Council are considering an actual commitment by the

United States against Iran. Um, strikes against Ford and things of that kind. The risk that runs is that the Iranians

will take counter measures. If their missiles are able to penetrate Israeli air defenses, they may be able, in fact,

I suspect they can strike at American bases across the Middle East. No doubt. So the United States is going to be

involved in a very very long potentially and very very dangerous war with Ir with Iran with unpredictable

results. I am not sure that everybody in Washington, if I can tell you for an absolute fat, most people in Washington,

I get the sense, don't fully understand that. Um, and as for Trump himself, I I suspect that he's just all over the

place. I mean, this is I don't think he knows exactly what he's uh what he's going to do. He's probably had people

like Pete Hexus and others come along and tell him, "Look, we've got to start deploying these vast forces to the

Middle East because if we don't, it looks as if we're leaving Israel uh to hang by itself." And that is a disaster

for us and it is a disaster politically for you. and you have Lindsey Graham on your back and all of that. So, I mean,

it it could be that uh you know, he's he's dithering. It could be that he's decided to support Iran, which would

mean going with the Washington establishment against his base. Well, one way or the other, this is looking to

me like an um a massive debacle in the making. Unless, of course, regime change in Iran is indeed achieved at some point

over the next few weeks. And we still can't fully discount that possibility, but unless it is achieved at some point

within the next few weeks, in which case it's quite likely that we're going to have going down the line massive further

problems because nobody knows what regime change in Iran will lead to. And those who assume that it's going to lead

to some pro-Western liberal outcome might be massively disappointed again. U but if it does

happen then at least for some weeks and months it will take the heat off Trump just to say but I I mean unless that

happens and it's starting to look less and less likely then um then um as I said um Trump has no good options in

this um accepting Putin's offer of mediation seems to me to be the of the available bad options. Obviously,

Lindsey Graham is going to be absolutely furious if it happens. But bearing something in

mind if the Israelis agree, what can Lindsey Graham do? Can Lindsey Graham seriously be more royalist than the

king? Can he take a harder line than um Israel is would itself be taking? Um I don't know. But this is the position

that Trump has put himself in. And no president of the United States should ever have let himself be put in this

kind of situation. And I say that without, you know, going into the whole massive topic which people are getting

so worried and exercised about which is in my opinion anyway a diversion from a real examination of the underlying facts

which is what Trump's actual role in um bringing this whole situation about has been. The key thing is that as of today,

Iran stands. The the government in Iran stands and it is able to hit back. It doesn't look as if there's a huge

uprising of people across Iran, determined to overthrow the government. It looks as if it has solid popular

support at least during the period of the war. In other words, that Iranian society is closing around it. And it

looks as if Iran is able to hit back, hit back at targets within Israel itself and potentially hit back against

American targets across the Middle East. The problem with um with what you said about Lindsey Graham and uh trying to

get uh and what would Lindsey Graham say if Israel agreed to to accept uh the Putin offramp to allow Russia to

mediate, which which makes complete sense. I mean, Russia is the only country that I can see. Yeah. That that

has positioned itself to mediate this. Yes. So, the the problem with Trump is that

if you want if you want to send a message to Israel, Netanyahu, and tell them, "Look, we're

not going to support you anymore. We got to end this." So that puts pressure on Netanyahu

because as you said the consensus is without a doubt that Israel cannot do this by themselves. They've admitted it.

They've admitted that if if this continues with with the support that they currently have with the US, I don't

want to say by themselves with the current support that they have from the US, it's not enough. And Israel has

admitted as much. Yeah. So the the message that you want to send to Netanyahu if you want to deescalate

is is we're not going to to ramp up any more support. We're actually going to scale down the support.

Therefore Netanyahu, you have to mediate with Putin. There is no other option for Netanyahu. Then

there is no other. It's it's either face complete military defeat or allow Putin to mediate the the JCPOA

revised agreement, which is what we're we're really talking about, right? The problem is that Trump is sending the

wrong message by sending all these military assets to the Middle East. He's sending the message, I'm going to

support you, Netanyahu. Yes. Which tells me once again that Trump is making all the wrong decisions. Now,

there is a small chance that he's sending all these assets because Trump has this obsession with looking strong.

He has this obsession with trying to be the negotiator. He has this massive ego and he doesn't want to make it seem as

if he's he's backing off in in any way. And he and and in his mind, he's saying, you know, I'm not going to to to allow

the United States to strike Iran, but the United States has to be strong. Peace through strength. Peace through

strength. We have to show peace through strength. So, how do we show peace through strength? Well, Pet Teethth,

let's send all of these Russian all of these US uh uh tankers and military assets and all of these aircraft. Let's

send them to the Middle East, but I'll I'll I'll try to get this Putin offramp going. But it's it's sending the wrong

message. And Netanyahu is going to look at all the assets moving to the Middle East. He's going to say, "Trump, what

are you talking about? Mediate with Putin. You have all of these assets right now in the Middle East. let's use

them and Lindsey Graham's going to say that and Ted Cruz is going to all the senators are jumping on and they're

saying let's use the assets that we have to hit Iran. I mean Trump is once Trump once again is playing this all wrong

because he he's he's stuck in in in this in this peace through strength narrative that he can't get himself out of. No.

Yeah. This is the thing because he's saying he gives this impression in some of his

truth social um comments and by the way he should stop using truth social this is I mean it's a disaster it is an

absolute disaster especially in a crisis of this kind he's giving far too many interviews he's talking about accepting

Putin's idea of mediation that he's absolutely happy if mediation between Israel and Iran is indeed undertaken by

Russia. He's he's talking about that. So of one level he's giving the impression that he's absolutely relaxed and in fact

if anything keen that the Russians should do what they are offering or trying to do at the same time and you

can exactly see how this could happen. you know this put aside whether you know this is Trump actually making the

decision anyway because he supports this operation has done all along of moving all these forces to the Middle East much

more likely scenario in my opinion is that war starts Israel is attacked Israel cannot absorb

the blows that by the way disintegrates the entire cover story that they were putting out previously you know Marco

Rubio putting out statements this is a unilateral operation by Israel has got nothing to do with the United States.

We're not involved. It's entirely the is Israelis, you know, we're just bystanders.

But of course, Israel is now under attack. Hegs comes along. Others come along. Lindsey Graham, they say, you

know, we can't just leave Israel to go down in flames. So, we've got to move all of these huge forces to the Middle

East. we've got to give ourselves the option of striking at Iran. But then of course you do that, you move all of

these huge forces, the aircraft carriers, the refueling um tankers, the military forces to the Middle East. And

then of course when they're all there, people like Netanyahu, Lindsey Graham, for all I know, Pete Hegth says, "We

can't keep these forces there indefinitely. We can't just stay there um with all these forces where they are.

We need them in all kinds of other places, too. We need them in China uh to fight China in the Pacific. um this war

if we move, if we, you know, go away, it's it's not ending. So, we've got to attack because that's the only way we

can release our forces and resolve this crisis. If you move huge numbers of troops and ships and aircraft carriers

and refueling aircraft and all of that into position, the pressure on you to use them is going to be enormous. And

that is exactly the dynamic that we're seeing play out now. Again, in some respects, it almost doesn't matter what

Trump himself intends because to me, and I'm going to say this, it looks as if he's losing control of the whole

situation. Yeah, that's why I I say Lindsey Graham, foreign policy president. Trump has lost

complete control of his entire foreign policy. Complete control. Uh the US um and it does look like the US is

preparing for a strike. That that's how it looks. And I don't know who's making the decision. And I wonder if Trump is

making a decision for the US to to strike Iran. It really does not seem like it.

Can I just Can I just unpack that because you're quite likely right. I mean, you know, we we always assume that

all the people in the Pentagon and all of the rest are only talking to the White House, but they might be talking

to other people, too. It's quite plausible that people on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for example, are

talking to people in the Senate, to people like Lindsey Graeme. I mean, it it you

don't know to what extent Trump himself has control over the situation. Washington is an incredibly complicated

place. They could all be making decisions, circumventing the old man who's still talking about getting the

Russians to mediate. Nobody in Washington takes that seriously to the extent that they take it seriously.

They're horrified by the idea. So they all go out of their way to just make sure that that never happens. And that's

possible. I'm not saying it's true because of course we don't know. Or it could be that Trump in his own mind has

already decided that he's being advised by Lindsey Graham. He's been spoken to by Pete Hith. He's taking advice from

Mark uh uh Mark Levan, which is a disastrous thing by the way. I mean, anybody who reads Mark Levan's comments,

would know how completely off peace this man is in terms of supporting Israel and wanting to attack and destroy

Iran. I mean, but anyway, uh he could be taking advice from all of these people and it could be that these are people

are running his foreign policy, but none of this suggests a president to me who is in control. If Donald Trump

had really wanted to conduct an operation against Iran, the best way to have done it, and I say this

straightforwardly now, is to have had that meeting in Oman on Sunday, come out and say that the Iranians were not being

cooperative and then start the whole machinery towards an attack on Iran. That was not what he did. And everything

suggests a president who simply doesn't control his own administration or his own

foreign policy and has seeded control of it to all of the people around him or some of the people around him. No, what

what happened is that the White House started making excuses again just like the Russian airfield uh incident. Yeah.

Right. You're you're three days away from from a negotiation. The sixth six negotiations. Yes, I know. That have

taken place. negotiations which by all accounts were going well were going well. I mean that that that is what

makes it so the the easiest agreement you could ever put together in all of foreign policy. Everyone is on the same

page. Exactly. A three-year-old could have put this agreement together for for Iran. Correct. Correct. And and you have

the White House once again making excuses. Uh Trump knew Trump didn't know it was a Roose. They were fooling uh all

the just dumb, childish, ridiculous, stupid excuses. A real president would have fired his entire communications

team. His entire communications team and then fire everyone else in the freaking cabinet, honestly. Because they're all

doing a terrible job. Exactly. Everyone. I agree. Everyone. I agree. Yeah. And why is he not listening to Tulsi

Gabbard? Exactly. Where is Tulsi Gabbard? Why is he not listening to her? Two months ago, she said that that Iran

is not enriching uh uranium. We've seen everything. Yes. Now she's she's disappeared. Where is she? Well, she's

probably not she's probably been frozen out of the discussions, I'm guessing. Frozen out. Okay. So, you're listening

to Kellogg and you're listening to Lindsey Graham. Is this is this who the American people voted for? Well,

exactly. These lunatics. Well, exactly. But I mean, and Trump's ego will never ever ever allow him to to to to give up

the the mediation to Putin. It will never ever allow him to do it. And everyone around him knows it. Exactly.

Your your thoughts on what I said and my final question Alex and my final question so you can wrap up the video. I

agree. Ch can you comment on China and Russia getting involved? Yeah. Yeah. Because this is this is the other this

is the other thing because at the moment and I think this is a point to say we don't know whether Iran has asked for

any help from China and Russia. They should have asked for their help long ago by the I mean they getting on top of

their cyber issues definitely they needed to speak to their Chinese and Russian friends. I mean it's

incredible that their entire communication system was caught flatfooted. It's incredible that their

entire security system um broke down so completely. I mean both the Chinese and especially the Russians now because the

Russians have had experience of having to deal with infiltrators. And by the way, we could have guessed the

Ukrainians are able to pull off things from time to time like the attacks on the um bases, the the drone attacks on

the bases, but one gets the sense overall that they've not been able to achieve anywhere near as much as they've

been trying to do. And certainly we don't have a situation where people are simply being assassinated in dozens

across the capital with car bombs exploding and that kind of thing. The Iranians ought to have become involved

and they they ought to have sought help from their friends long ago and it's clear that they didn't do do this. Now

the situation then becomes this. If Iran is finally pushed and they start asking China and Russia for help, what will

China and Russia do? Now, you know, a lot of people say that they will do nothing. I do not agree. I think both

China and Russia in this kind of situation where both the Chinese and the Russians are saying openly that Iran is

the victim of aggression. And this is where we come back to the uh fact that this attack was conducted 3 days before

negotiations were be were due to begin. I don't think people have grasped what a catastrophe

in diplomatic terms that was when the Russians launched the special military operation.

They were very careful first to meet with the Ukrainians in Berlin and they'd been putting forward um treaties to the

United States and to NATO. They went through a whole diplomatic process. They only acted when it became clear that

that diplomatic process was exhausted. And that's one of the reasons why support for them across the global south

has basically remained solid. The United States either by default or intentionally and Israel absolutely

intentionally acted whilst negotiations good faith negotiations on the part of the Iranians were actually underway. So

the Russians and the Chinese see that they have already said that Iran is the victim of aggression. Iran is a member

of bricks. Russia has a security agreement which again Iran apparently has not at has not yet ratified. It has

not yet put through its parliament or all its various committees. It's still therefore not fully in operation. But if

the Iranians come to the Russians and to the Chinese and request military assistance in this

kind of scenario, I think they will get it. And probably they're already getting some they're probably already getting

some degree of intelligence support. But I think the Russians and the Chinese will start to move and start to take

help take steps to help Iran. They will probably supply weapons. They will probably supply replacements for any

missiles. They may start supplying components and those kind of things. And in the case of Russia, what does the

United States do? Does it sanctions Russia? Does it give more weapons to Ukraine?

What does it do? So, you know, this is this is where I think again people in Washington in are not working this

through because the longer this continues, the more the United States and Israel get drawn into a longterm war

of attrition with the big Eurasian states almost certain to start taking steps of

this kind, especially if their offers of mediation are rejected.

Um the balance is gradually going to shift again slowly back in favor of Iran. Um even if the United States

decides to become directly involved, it will depend again on the stability of the government. I was going to say the

regime in Iran itself. Of course, if it collapses, as happened in Syria, there's nothing the Russians and the Chinese can

do to rescue a government that is so fragile that it collapses under these these sort of blows. But if on the

contrary, it endures, the balance slowly, steadily, but not so slowly,

steadily, and probably quite quickly will start to move in favor of Iran. Can can you just explain the differences

between Syria and Iran? Because I was thinking about this um yesterday and um I believe in one of your videos you you

mentioned how Netanyahu uh probably got very um got overconfident, emboldened by by the fact

that uh Syria fell so quickly and Netanyahu and the neocons probably thought, "Okay, what what we did in

Syria, we can just copy and paste it over to Iran." Yes. But you know, I was thinking these are these were two very

different uh these are two very different countries obviously, but two two very different situations uh two two

different uh governments and leadership. In essence, Syria to me was was a successful coup. Yes, it was a coup and

you're and you were dealing with the leader who who just was was his he was un he

didn't have the strength to to to keep everything together. I mean, it's it's a very different situation

what happened in Syria and and and I think once again the West and is Israel, the West, the neocons, the US, they're

once again making a mistake by by taking what happened in Syria and believing that that's going to that's going to be

easy to to replicate in Iran. Absolutely. There there was actually very little fighting in Syria last year.

And I think this is a point which again many many people have missed because what basically happened was that the

entire military leadership uh the Syrian army the Syrian generals simply turned their back on Bashar al-Assad. Probably

they started to take bribes from uh um various western governments but it was exactly what you said. It was a coup. It

was not a successful military campaign. the entire Syrian military and political leadership at some point lost confidence

in the leadership of Basha al-Assad and they abandoned him. Um now the situation in Iran is completely different. The

very fact that the Israelis are trying to assassinate these uh is um Iranian military people suggests that the

Iranian military security services, however disorganized they are, continue to remain loyal to the government of

Iran. So there aren't the same

um ingredients for the kind of coup we saw carried out in Syria in Iran at this particular time. So this is not a house

of cards that's going to collapse in the way that Syria uh collapsed because the government the political

administrative structure appears to be solid. It is more like Syria 2015

than Syria 2024. In 2015, the Syrian army, the Syrian generals, the Syrian intelligence services, the Syrian

diplomatic corps continued to be loyal to Basha al-Assad. They continued to see him as the

legitimate president of Syria. they could remain loyal to him even as uh the jihadis were within a few kilometers of

his presidential palace. They continued to fight. They continue to resist in places like Aleppo and Derisor.

You know, Ederizor cut off from the rest of Syria and isolated garrison in the eastern deserts. And that meant that the

Russians and the Chinese, the Russians especially of course were able to come to the rescue in um

nove October November December 2024 that was no longer the case. However, it came about whatever it was that Assad did or

failed to do. confidence in his leadership had gone and um that created conditions for a

coup which is what basically took place. The forces that Galani commanded allegedly I've heard that the total

number of those forces numbered around 6,000 men against a Syrian army that in theory numbered in the hundreds of

thousands. Yeah. two very different situations. But um with the neocons, they they they

believe that yeah, they yeah that they could they could easily get get a regime change in Iran.

Yeah. Okay, we'll uh end the video there. The duran.locals.com. We are on uh Rumble and Odyssey and X

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