Market Strategy: US Jobs Data, Nike Drop, Micron Surge & Argentina

Ah. Ah. Oh. Ah. Oh. Ah. Good morning. Good morning. How’s it going? How are things out there? Fabricio is the only

one who said hello so far. We always like it when you say hello, so say hello—it’s Friday, good vibes, the

week is ending, and we’re here to comment a bit on what we’re seeing and discuss strategies. We're here with

Nico, as always. What’s up, Nico? All good. >> Good morning, Ami. How are you?

Everything’s good over here. >> Excellent. Excellent. And here on the right, Yan joins us again. What’s up,

Yan? >> How’s it going? Everything okay? Well , there’s a spring-like vibe here, or

something like that, on a Friday, so I’m happy, happy to be here discussing this week a bit. Another

week—I always come in on complicated weeks, so another complicated week for the world, for Argentina. But hey, I

think there are opportunities, so we’ll be able to chat about that. We come in here like firefighters, right?

With the extinguisher to put out fires and lower the anxiety a bit, because I don't know if I agree that it was such

a mess, but to calm the waters a bit. Yes, we have the rate in the United States that has been rising. The

non-farm payroll data just came out, excluding the farm sector, >> which is what the market usually

watches closely, it comes out every Friday and it came in higher than expected—in other words, worse than

expected. This famous "bad news is good news" that we usually mention. Why? Because bad employment data decreases

the probability of a rate hike. That's what's generating that in the markets right now. Rates are dropping a lot

today with the bond market open, S&P futures are up. So today is going to be interesting. Today also has earnings

reports. Nike reported yesterday, we’ll be talking about that. It’s down 10%—as far as I saw a couple of

minutes ago, Nike is falling 10%, a stock we’ve been following and it won't stop dropping, you know? It’s

like it’s always cheaper. How tempting, right? No. >> Why would that be? It has a lot, I mean

, I understand it’s reporting fewer sales than expected each time, and earnings per share worse than expected.

In other words, on top of selling less, it’s getting less margin on what it sells. But I mean, could it be due to

the fierce competition they have? I understand that Nike is coming off a major strategy shift where they

refocused on the sector of e-commerce sales. Basically, a lot of focus there. And they changed the CEO, too.

>> They changed the CEO, who is a guy that started as an intern 30 years ago. >> Wow. That's a huge detail.

>> A corporate career, they say. >> Literally, entirely Nike. And at the time, the expectation was: well, a guy

is coming in who knows the company inside and out, and he's still there, as they're saying in the chat, very

good. Uh, they stopped focusing on sales in the, in the store as we know it (which, by the way, Nike stores are

very nice), but the focus shifted to the e-commerce side and I don't think it's going very well.

>> Right? The thing is, there's also a lot of competition with ON, for example, another interesting brand, Hoka, and

several other brands that, well, give them a run for their money, and for you , it’s not the same Nike it once was.

>> I think that >> because perhaps an opportunity is brewing.

>> How long has an opportunity been brewing? >> Well, but it's 90%off its high, right?

>> And they delisted it from the S&P 100, right? The 500. The S&P 100. >> Who buys the S&P 100? No, but it's a,

it's an index. It's an index. The companies, the 100 most important companies globally, mainly from the

United States, which are already global companies, redundancy intended, and it leaves the 100 most important companies

. So, I think it's a detail to keep in mind. And regarding competitor clothing , we talked about it yesterday in the

accrual; there it is, our friend Fercus says ON from the Swiss Confederation. It's also looking bearish. Lulu is

looking bearish. Adidas, which we looked at yesterday, is looking bearish . So, what we were saying yesterday was

, "Hey, it seems like there’s an issue with interest rates, too, with U.S. consumption, and specific athletic

wear, and well, it’s taking a backseat." >> That sector is called consumer

discretionary, consumption that includes, for example, cars as well. >> Okay.

>> Uh, you have the ETF that is XLY, >> for consumer discretionary, >> which is also performing weakly; it

also includes Amazon, as well as e-commerce. So, I think with Nike you have a, I mean, you have problems

specific to the company, it's a firm that isn't selling as expected, revenue is down, costs might be increasing,

which also results in earnings being lower than expected and falling. Even the guidance, which is the projections

the company itself makes, was worse than what the market expected. That is also what’s causing it to keep

falling. The company comes out and says , "Hey, look, we are going to earn 1.35 per share," and the market expected

1.65. >> Sure, very far off. >> Very far, very far. So, the projections

continue to be negative. >> On top of doing poorly, you tell me you're going to do even worse.

>> Exactly. They are going to keep looking at it from the outside. What do you want me to tell you?

>> Well, >> it's like trying to grab a knife that has an edge, all blade, all blade. And

you have a handle there that you have to grab. Perfect. Does anyone in the chat have Nike and want to comment?

Well, >> I, I have Nike. >> Nike. Dami has it. Dami has it.

>> I mentioned it a while ago. >> You have Nike? >> It's my first.

>> Oh, but it's the one you never touched. >> Never. I bought it once in August 2020. My first CEDEAR. Did Cocos exist in...

>> 2020. >> Yes, in 2021. I'm not down 80%. >> Tremendous. My first CEDEAR, there just

to see what it was about. >> And it's going to stay there. >> And it's going to stay there. It's an

anecdote now. >> Yes, yes, of course. >> Will Nike recover? #LetGoOfNike. No,

that's it. At the time, it was literally pennies, I don't know, it was like saying, what, 10,000 pesos today.

Sure. >> Very little. That at the time you had to...

>> not even, not even, not even, eh, no, very, very little. But at that time you had to buy by the ratio, it was 20, I

think it was 25 to 1 for Nike and you had to buy the 25 CEDEARs. But well, that's what's happening with Nike, and

I'll add this data point too, since we're talking about it. In the United States, sales grew 2%year-over-year, I

mean, that's very little. >> In Europe, it fell 5%and the data, I think, is here. China, which is a

gigantic market, fell 22%year-over-year . So yes, there is some competition, there is something the business is

doing wrong, and there is something in the company's own projection that is telling you, "No, we are not going to

keep growing as the market expects." >> Now a question occurs to me, if you want we can wrap up with Nike. It's a

mega-factory that one doesn't just stop , uh, producing; it’s not like because they sell less they will

manufacture less, I mean, what do they do with the production they don't end up allocating in China, for example?

Good production. A good question, right ? >> It's a good question.

>> The short answer that occurs to me is, are they going to end up lowering prices

>> exactly >> to be able to sell that, >> so they don't end up overstocked?

>> Well, maybe you can buy yourself a nice pair of Nikes at a good price. >> It is good Nike clothing, we don't have

a sponsor, but if they want to take advantage of this slow moment, the friends at Nike,

>> the Nike country manager, who >> yes, if they want to, they are more than welcome to sponsor us, we’ll put

the swoosh, everything, eh. There's no problem at all. That said, I also want to get into the results from Micron, as

we have data there too, but first it’s always important, at least our way of looking at the market is what's

called top-down, which would be starting from the top and going to the bottom. The top would be, well, what is

happening with the United States? The macro, rates, oil in this context as well. And then move on to the specific

stocks. That said, we were talking about the, the >> the non-farm data.

>> Exactly. Thanks to the Non-farm data, which is causing the rate to fall. And yesterday we were talking before this

data, about how the Treasury curve is steepening. Yesterday we had, or rather , this week we had at yesterday's close

the short rate closing negative and the long rate closing positive. What's up with that phenomenon? Well, there is a

graph of the, the blue graph, of how the Treasury curve changed in September 2026, because well, uh, it didn't wear

out September, it didn't end fortunately and the curve...Oh, look at that, it's a shame that the variation

for the whole month isn't seen so well. >> but basically the dashed blue line is where it was at each segment of the

curve, what the yield was, right? Uh, starting with 2 months, uh 6 months, one year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years

and 30 years. Well, it's clear there's been an upward shift in the yield curve , meaning today any Treasury bond you

bought, any MEP bond, you've lost money . Basically, many people have been asking us these past few weeks, "Hey, a

corporate bond dropped in price, why?" This is the answer. This is the answer to why there's a price drop: because

the risk-free U.S. bond itself also dropped in price, and went from yielding, for example, a 10-year bond

that started the month (I was going to say the year), started the month yielding 4.80 and today yields 5.30.

>> Exactly. >> That’s 50 basis points. >> Comparable. Comparable assets become

less attractive. >> The more the U.S. bond yields. >> Totally. Exactly.

>> And they adjust to that rate movement. >> At the very least, they should rise by the same amount, and then you add the

ripple effect of country risk, company risk, and everything else. >> What has been happening in Argentina?

We have data on that. We'll likely be talking about it in a few minutes, but this rate movement is important, right?

Hey, why are these falling? Why are the sovereign bonds falling? This is happening with the U.S. rate, which

apparently, well, yesterday it was down and today we have, averaging across the curve, they are falling a bit more than

one percentage point in nominal terms, right? In terms of rates, of course, a percentage point relative to

yesterday's price. So we'll have to see how this continues. What is your expectation? Do you think this will

keep trending upward? The probability of a rate hike for the Fed's October meeting is now 70%. Without today's

data. >> Yes. Let's see, the the short-term rates are at 3.754. And the 2-year rate

, which is the first thing one should look at when seeing the Treasury curve. Why? Because it tells you where the

market believes the Fed rate will be in two years, basically. So, the 2-year bond curve gives me that information.

So, if I look, the market believes the Fed is going to hike rates four times over the next two years.

>> One this year and three in 2025. >> Correct. Correct. So this is heavily priced in. They should raise the

interest rate now, because otherwise, the Treasury curve has gone too far, the 2-year one and, therefore, all the

others. So I think that is my expectation. To me, the Fed is surely going to raise interest rates one or

two more times for sure. And then a third and a fourth, I think, is what the market is overreacting to right now

. >> Yeah. Here we have, for example, Calci, which is a bit of a competitor to the

famous Polymarket. >> Really? >> As of yesterday. Right. This is Kalshi.

This is Kalshi. It says Kalshi. >> And yeah, it's the prediction market, it moves a lot. Well, Kalshi, you have,

remember that this is a prediction market, people are buying and selling. What is going to happen on a certain

date? In this case it's, hey, will the Fed raise the rate in October, yes or no? And you have 65%as of yesterday

without this data, exactly. This employment data, 65%that they hold it and 31%that they raise it. This is

Kalshi for the market, as I was saying, 60-70%that they raise it. >> There is a contradiction here. I think

that with this data in October, and more so taking into account that there are elections, I'll stick more with our

friends at Kalshi. >> Damicho, let me tell you, Powell said, "I am not looking at every specific

data point. I don't make decisions because of the PMI or the CPI or whatever, or the non-farm payrolls. I

make decisions based on the trend, and right now the trend is accelerating inflation. So, for the moment I don't

think that a bad employment report will influence Powell, meaning a less overheated economy, because I think the

last rate hike didn't have an effect on this data. So I think he may continue raising the interest rate and stop

there. Look, Bruno says there that it's now at 84%on Kalshi. Well, that makes sense,

>> it makes sense, >> it makes sense. Interesting, too, what you said about Powell

>> and the guy looks at it as a whole, right? He doesn't look at every specific data point, even though this

data might have been favorable for not raising rates. Well, but the market does look at it, and it's a bit of what

we were saying before. The guy comes in to calm the waters a bit and says," No, look, I don't look at this. "

>> Yes, it's not what he has to say. >> No. And the election, I think, is a point. In the United States, they act

like they're independent, but at a time like this, I'm more on your side. I think there might be a slowdown there.

>> And crazy Warsh, who was appointed by Trump, and Trump kind of took out Powell

>> under the premise. Now he wants to take him out again. Listen, that's no >> Powell, because he is still on the

Fed's board of directors. >> Exactly. Exactly. >> He says," If you don't take me out, "

because he pressured him to leave by trying to bring a lawsuit against him for alleged misappropriation of funds

in a construction project the Fed did, but nothing has been found yet." And what it says, if you want to count it,

>> no, no, that, that, what you were saying, but Trump came out again this week on Twitter or his social network

to call for his resignation, >> so yes, or actually not to call for his resignation, but to say he believes he

should resign. That's what Trump says. I mean, he played you, you see, he moved the first pawn. He clashed hard

with Powell, but I think that even though Kevin "the crazy one" Warsh was appointed by Trump, evidently this Fed

independence by raising rates last month says, "It's all fine that the current president appointed me. I, the

Federal Reserve is an independent entity. I am raising rates by 25 basis points. I don't think that with this

data plus what we've been seeing, he'll raise them another 25 basis points a month before the midterm elections.

>> No, I don't think so. I don't think so. Still, the next rate meeting is on the 28th of this month. October 28th. So,

well, >> I don't think so, but he could do it. >> It could be, it could be.

>> If he is independent. >> Our friend Buró is also asking," Repeat the employment data, please. "

What you need to take away is that unemployment rose from 4.1%to 4.2%. In the United States, that's quite a bit.

So, it can be translated in the following way. If employment is loosening, this means the economy could

start to loosen. If the economy starts to loosen, it's because rates might be high according to the market's reading.

If rates are high, well, then the probability of them raising them will decrease because the economy could be

slowing down or be >> Exactly. Actually, all of this turnaround this year, with expectations

for more rate hikes, has to do with inflation not going down and an economy that is still running full throttle as

if nothing were wrong, >> despite higher rates. And on top of all this, I'm also interested in talking

about the DXY dollar index, which is at its yearly high; that also hits Argentina a bit, since lately the

peso's appreciation has been highly correlated with—let me put it another way: the appreciation and depreciation

of the peso has been highly correlated with the appreciation and depreciation of the dollar globally. Today we have

the DXY, the dollar index that compares against the euro, the Japanese yen, and other major currencies, at its yearly

high. I have to say, there is a strong dollar globally that is hitting the Argentine peso hard, which closed at

around 1550 yesterday. Something Trump didn't want, right? I mean, when he took office two years ago, with all

this talk of bringing industry back to the United States and this reindustrialization, if you will, in

theory he was going to look for a weaker dollar, which is what happened at first. And today, as you say, it's

at yearly highs, and it was already above 102, at least yesterday. >> Above 102. Trump wanted a cheap dollar,

>> low rates, >> low rates and cheap oil too; everything is the opposite.

>> Everything is backwards. >> Everything is backwards. We have to see if this will continue like this. Today,

oil prices are also coming down. Interesting. A tweet came out, we talked about it yesterday, that Iran

lost control of the oil. It is so important for the market today whether or not the Strait of Hormuz is opened.

And we talked about it because this affects inflation rates, interest rates ; the price of oil impacts everything.

It lost control. Well, let's see, through the Strait of Hormuz, in practical terms, it's not like there is

a 100%free flow. Iran is still being a nuisance, meaning they are still preventing the flow we had before, but

the United States has more control and more say in what happens there. So yeah , uh, it's a reality that Iran is also

looking to close some kind of deal, some kind of agreement with the United States, because right now it’s

understood that the U.S. has much more leverage than Iran in terms of negotiations.

>> Yes. And this week it reopened, I think it was Monday, the strait reopened. Not the strait, the Saudi Arabian pipeline

that had been in the Red Sea, let's say . Exactly, the one they bombed, and those are all alternative routes to

Hormuz to export oil, which, well, if you’re the one controlling the strait , like Iran is, it takes away your

power because they find an alternative route to transport it. >> Totally, totally. I think it’s

something to keep analyzing, the oil issue. I personally don't know, I still see it quite high because of what’s

happening in the world today. We’ll have to see if, with everything you’ve been saying, whether the news

from Iran ultimately continues to have an impact, more than anything, not the Middle East, since we’re saying it

leaves through... >> I mean, the oil flow recovered because of what Nico mentioned. The other

important part, which was through the Red Sea via Saudi Arabia, is 100% operational. So, there is flow, and we

should see a pullback in oil prices. The problem is, I think that until there’s an agreement or a photo of

them shaking hands, nobody seems to be buying the back-and-forth anymore. I mean, until you have a resolution. It's

the uncertainty that’s driving the current price more than the flow, because there is flow. That’s the

answer. >> Today, what the market is reacting to is this nonfarm payroll data; oil is

down 4%. Interesting. And well, I don’t think anyone is buying the Twitter back-and-forth from Trump and

other...... >> other important officials anymore. That said, if you have YPF, if you have

Vista—since people are asking about YPF and mentioning it—for 5 years or more, that's great. Well, for the short

term, keep in mind the volatility of oil and YPF, which has been carrying the Merval throughout the year. But

well, to keep following, I think you should keep this risk in mind if you hold oil—the volatility—and I’m

looking at the VIX, for example, which with this data is down nearly 6%—5.5% . The VIX, let’s remember, is a

volatility index measured through options. It essentially measures risk appetite. If it's very high, investors

'risk appetite goes down. And if it's low, as we see now at 15.50 points, it's because the risk appetite is very

high. Something I read in some international research was that they found it strange to see a low VIX at a

time of such volatile rates. I mean, we had a couple of days with strong upward rate movements; it broke 5%, and

continued with quite a lot of strength beyond what's happening today. And one of the points they raised was, did they

find it strange? It makes sense, considering that the S&P kept going as if nothing happened, but well, it was a

point they raised; they found it strange that there isn't a higher VIX in a moment of uncertainty. And it's

that you have the companies, and we'll get to talking about Micron, but you have these types of companies that are

crushing it, >> I mean, the cases like Nike are quite specific. The tech sector, which is

what weighs most in the market today, at least in the S&P, is soaring, and we have the snapshot of the month's close

there, how September went, remember today is October 2nd, the other chart, if we can put it up. Oh well, we'll add

it there. It says SPY month-end. The other one is how it performs going forward and we'll be looking at it, but

what you will see in the chart is precisely technology, which is what's rising the most compared to perhaps the

defensive sectors. There we are seeing it: defensive sectors like Walmart, Costco, which are there on the right.

>> Same with the energy sector, Exxon XOM, Chevron CVX, and you have semiconductors, which are super green.

There is MU, which is Micron. A little further down it's also there, I mean, basically everything that is green is

technology. >> It is technology, but linked to artificial intelligence. I mean, it was

a very...it was a very core month >> very positive for artificial intelligence,

>> very weak on the right side, right? Consumer, Amazon, Tesla, Walmart, Costco, Banks too, pharmaceuticals,

banking, the XLF, the financial sector was very weak, >> the healthcare sector,

>> Lilly, there, Johnson&Johnson negative too, UNH negative, companies that are understood as defensive, right?

Healthcare or consumer staples have been hit. Perhaps an opportunity could be building there.

>> Yes, it could be. Pharmaceutical via the XLV ETF, which is really healthcare , not just pharmaceutical. It is having

a very good year. >> It is having a good year. Yes, >> yes. It already had a

>> It's a correction, but it’s been rallying, right? >> The healthcare sector is doing very

well. The defensive sector is also doing quite well, huh? I mean, I look at the value and

>> which defensive >> Walmart, for example, >> XLY,

>> right? XLP. >> Ah, >> consumer staples.

>> Exactly. >> Walmart's price-to-earnings is very high. I mean, those are the main

metrics. Um, >> but price pressure. This shows a bit of what we were saying about the S&P

concentration, right? You look at this picture and you have much more red than green, yet the S&P is up two and a half

percent for the month. Obviously because of how the companies on the left, which are the tech ones, weigh in

, I mean, the ones pushing the index hard. >> Broadcom, AVGO, catches my attention.

Within this context we’re discussing, it has a high weight in the S&P and it’s been interesting to follow. I

have it in my portfolio, I read an interesting report from" El Chino "on Twitter, shout out to him.

>> It's a very good newsletter and I recommend it. I added it to my portfolio.

>> Bad, bad for something that’s down 7% against the grain of the tech sector. of AI.

>> Yes. And Meta, Meta, very interesting, Meta, which we've been talking about quite a bit, up 25 points, also very

much related to artificial intelligence , we talked about it last week, you mentioned always.

>> Yes, the one about Musk. So today, everything AI-related is really doing very well.

>> Tell me about Micron. Uh, Micron reported results yesterday, uh, actually Wednesday after the bell.

>> The truth is the results are, you know, kind of hard to believe. It's a company where revenue grew 380%year-over-year

and grew 35%quarter-over-quarter. And something we were looking at yesterday with Ian that was interesting is that

this quarter-over-quarter, all of that growth came from price increases, not from more sales or higher production,

but just from simple price hikes due to the high demand we're seeing. One of the important points, if you will, or

something to monitor, I think no one doubted the company would post good numbers this month because the trend

has been that way. It's just that. what matters more is the guidance or what the company tells you about the future,

because we are in a somewhat new business and they see the demand for AI hardware increasing, so yeah, it seems

like good guidance. And one more point that Yan had also brought up yesterday in a report that I had read, that they

have almost 50%of their 2027 production , >> 75%of 2027 production already sold. So

this is very interesting, listen closely, because as we know, when the company presents results it tells you:"

Look, this is how I did in the last three months, this is how I did, I sold more than what you expected, "which is

when we say:" hey, they beat expectations, they were expected to have x sales and they sold a bit more.

"and it also tells you," This is how I will do for the next semester or next year. "So, what is interesting is that

it tells you:" This is how I will do for the next year, "but with a very clear level of certainty, because if it

tells you:" This is how I will do and I have 75%of that production already sold , "it is a" this is how I will do, "but

for real, I mean, because I already have it signed; it’s not just a projection with a low probability of

occurring, it’s almost 75%. So, the year 2027 is very interesting for Micron, but even more interesting is

how well they can do in 2028 and 2029, because 2027 is the year of the largest Capex investment in the history of

artificial intelligence, even, sorry, doubling, no, increasing the investment that is going to be made, that was made

this year in 2026. What does this mean? that everyone will be buying chips from , sorry, memory chips from Micron in

2027, but I don't know if that demand will continue in 2028 because all the buildings are being built now, the AI

buildings, right? So, the big question is whether Micron will be able to sustain this level of demand, which

this level of demand allows them to get 80%out of every product they sell. Why? because they raise prices and because

there is such inelastic demand of saying," I'll pay you whatever the price. "

>> They always validate it. >> They always validate it. So, Micron is selling more and more, invoicing more,

but in terms of units sold, production is increasing at a single-digit rate, growing 5-6%quarter over quarter. One

of the points that both Micron and the general narrative of this type of company, the semiconductor sector,

bring up is the fact that demand is rising much stronger than we can increase supply. They can't increase

production by 20-25%quarter over quarter, yet demand is indeed growing at those levels. So, well, that's the

bottleneck and the reason why they accept the prices, even paying for them in advance. And I found what you said,

Yan, very interesting about it is Micron's moment, because data centers are being built and by 2028, when the

demand for, again, data centers and infrastructure construction should trend downward drastically. Well, it's

Micron's moment. So, adding to what you were saying, Nico, why would they invest in developing more when they can

directly raise the price? Why raise the Q when they can raise the P? >> No. And besides, on the other side, I

mean, the companies that buy from Micron, all their investment or part of their investment will also go toward

making these technologies use less computing power. >> Exactly.

>> Uh, so, increasing production is what you were saying with Nike, right? What does Nike do with all that production?

Well, maybe Micron >> the opposite case, right? >> The opposite case, maybe Micron doesn't

want to overproduce, because if at some point demand drops, those...I mean, clothes you might be able to offload;

RAM chips, maybe harder, and it's technology that's constantly being updated, so maybe in 6 months it

becomes obsolete and they have to make something else. >> Exactly. It is interesting. For the

moment, we have a company that doesn't stop generating cash and is at a great moment. Perhaps it's a more long-term

trade, but it's owning semiconductors today for 2027, starting to transition it to all the data centers. Sure, sure.

Now >> They have an 87%operating margin. >> It's outrageous.

>> It's a huge amount. >> Tremendous. Great, great company. >> And I believe this should still have a

long way to go. >> It would seem so. >> The fundamentals support it. The thing

is, you look at Nvidia, for example, which is the number one company by market cap today, it's a more

consolidated company, I think what the market is pricing in is, will it be able to keep growing at 100%

year-over-year? >> That's the big question. >> You have to look at it also with Micron

, which if you look at it by Price-to-Earnings, which is a ratio we often mention, it's cheap, in quotes,

because that ratio is very low >> because earnings are very high today. Exactly.

>> The question is if, as you say, >> they will be able to maintain it. >> Will they be able to maintain it?

>> Hey, you sparked my curiosity. You said Nvidia. >> Yes,

>> there was news this week about Nvidia. >> Let's see. >> Announcement of the biggest stock

buyback in history. >> Yes, it's tremendous. And Micron is also going to buy back shares.

>> That is incredible. >> Yes. >> I mean, they see the company as cheap.

>> A little, >> a little, but Micron. 2 billion. But Nvidia, check the data for me, but I

think it's a gigantic buy, even bigger than the one Apple announced too. And I say, it's strange that Nvidia, being

worth practically all-time highs 225 >> 50 billion >> that's a lot of money. In how, in how

much time? >> It's 3%of the outstanding shares. >> It's outrageous. It's a huge amount.

>> And this, the, the project is >> no, they didn't announce a project, I mean, a buyback now because they have

excess cash. >> Impressive. >> And at a time when the company is worth

trillions of dollars, they decide to go out and buy back their shares >> because they see them as cheap.

>> Exactly. >> Because they say, eh, with this cash, what can we do? Invest in the company,

how much will it yield us, or invest in my company, I mean, invest in hardware to keep growing, or invest in my shares

. This will yield more for me. That is the equation they are making. >> I prefer them to start paying dividends

. I'm seeing, >> but that's when they give you the money back.

>> That's fine, but here it's" I see value in my shares. " >> No, Dami, when they give you dividends,

they're saying," I don't know what else to do with this. "Instead of" I have room to grow. "

>> That's why no, I mean, that's why I like them buying back over dividends. >> Ah, ah, okay.

>> I understood you liked it better when they paid dividends. >> No, no, no, no. I don't like companies

paying dividends. Warren Buffett says it and Berkshire never distributed, invest in the business. You know more

than I do. Exactly. >> Exactly. Exactly. It's a way to reward shareholders, but I prefer it when they

reward me by buying back shares. >> But it's kind of strange, right? A share buyback plan of this style is

generally seen when a company has had a very big drop. For example, Nike could go out and do it now. Uh,

>> Nike never did it. There you go. They should, they should have extra cash, right?,to do it, which they possibly

don't have now. But in general, it happens when management sees that the company is doing well, but the market

isn't validating that and...And the company is here, and yet, today you have companies that are at their

all-time highs, even at a time when a bubble is being suggested or where you have a sector that makes you wonder if

this is a bubble or not, and they give you the signal by going out to buy, to buy back their own shares.

>> Very good data point. Very good data point. Very good. And speaking of data, now we have the other chart, Cande.

What can we expect from here on out specifically for the S&P 500? Regarding what happened in the last months of the

year, in previous years. This goes from roughly 2010 to date. What I want, what we want to share with you is, notice

that the last quarter is usually positive. It's a simple average, really , but it's good to have the data that

in the last 14 years, 16 years give or take, October has averaged 2.25%, November 3%, and December is calmer at

0.7%. Let's also remember that there are midterm elections in the United States in November, but truly

interesting to see what we can expect from here on. Historically and generally, the S&P is positive almost

every month. Only September is a negative month, but it was a bit of an exception. September was kind of flat

in the S&P. Something to follow, something to follow. And if you want, let's get into Argentina too, as we

have a lot of data with the Merval. Which closes the week at -5%, a very weak month for the Merval. Yesterday we

were talking about Galicia, a company whose shares I own because here we tell the truth and

>> you have all of them, Dami, >> the ones that are doing poorly. I have Nike, I have Broadcom, I have Galicia.

>> Did you buy this week? Even so, >> I bought before it dropped yesterday. >> Okay.

>> Terrible timing. And your trade of the day. What is it? My, uh, I’m seeing that Galicia is trading at the same

price-to-book, that is, price against book value, that it was at during last year’s legislative elections, and

even today, the company’s shares, the value of the firm, is at those prices. It seems to me that the drop looks

quite exaggerated, how much did it fall ? >> Of

>> in these two, uh, months. >> Ah, in these two, uh, months. >> Eh, if I say something crazy, I might

be undershooting, but I’m looking it up right now. >> It must be 35%more or less.

>> Yes, I’ll look it up now. >> Well, >> but the thesis is that. I see there is

an over-punishment. Many say it’s because >> 37. Tremendous. Many say it’s because

of the election next year. I think there is a rate volatility in the United States that hits emerging

countries, like Argentina, which we will talk about now, regarding sovereign bonds. And this is also

generating repercussions in the stock market, specifically in the banking sector, unlike the energy sector which,

with oil flirting at $ 100 per barrel, causes the gains to continue. But it’s a different case for the banking

sector, which to me—I could be wrong, obviously nobody knows what will happen tomorrow—but it seems to me that

it’s over-punished. When is the best time to enter? I don’t know. I bought almost 4%. What’s happening with the

entire Argentine market, right? With the whole local market, an excess of, uh, pessimism, uh, embedded in bond

prices, in stock prices, very punished and accompanied by a very bad international context. Basically a

double kick downward for the local market. I think there could start to be opportunities, just as you are now

seeing a tactical floor. It’s a tactical, uh, trade that you are setting up because, uh, surely you will

hold that position for a short time, but I think that just as you found this opportunity, we could find some other

opportunities perhaps in bonds. We were just talking off the record about the 1816 report. Do you want to tell us?

Yes, the 1816 report, they put out a weekly report. We send our greetings as always to our friends at 1816. It

talked about, uh, the election next year with three scenarios where they end up leaning more towards the longer

part of the curve because one could benefit from both a positive scenario and also

>> the longer end of the curve, let’s call them GD35, 38, 41. Exactly, exactly. They also mention that they

see the tax rate quite punished, between 27 and 28, almost at 20 points. But I don't know what else you wanted

me to comment on, >> right? That, is that, what were they saying about whether they saw an

opportunity or not? >> Do they see it? To me, it seems like once again it's getting ahead of

something where it’s not even known if there will be primaries or who’s on the lists. Although important data

came out this week, the EMAE (activity index) had its worst month since COVID: it fell 2.9%. There is talk that

we’ve entered a technical recession and, on the other hand, the ICG ( government confidence index) came out

this Monday, falling 5.9%and hitting a low for the Milei administration. So, >> ICG, government confidence index, right

? Which is a very good indicator for elections. Government. Exactly. >> Exactly. And added to that, yes, I mean

, it seems to me that the international context dictates things and the Argentine side is like leveraging that

negative sentiment. >> The ICG is, besides looking at the variation, it’s an index in reality,

and today it’s at 1.9 on the ICG. It has two levels, a floor and a ceiling. When you're closer to 2.2, re-election

seems to be quite, uh, predictable. Now , when it's close to 1.8, which is the floor, uh, re-electing should be more

difficult, and today the government is at 1.9. >> We are seeing it there. And in

comparison with other presidents, the ICG has been measured since 2000, 2003, more or less. Well, De la Rúa is also

there, so a little before the 2000s. This is interesting, what you're saying . And for this moment of a presidency,

>> look at what the De la Rúa line is, sorry. But it made me laugh, you see it next to the one, tiny like that, all

the way down, right? >> One little week. >> That's when it started, of course. It

started being measured more or less in those times, and today it's something the market watches closely, watches a

lot. >> What are you seeing regarding the political situation?

>> For me? Without going into details, >> no, no, I think what you guys were saying about the movement we’re

seeing in the market being well explained by the external side, I think Argentina is a country where at any

moment you stand, you can look back at the newspaper a week and find some news that justifies the move. Up or down,

there always is. If you want to look for why the market is falling and you start looking back a week, you're going

to find some kind of glitch. >> in international terms, >> right? No, the Argentine market, of

course, bonds are falling >> and you say," Well, I'll grab the top five newspapers and look for why they

fell and you'll find some reason to justify it. "Uh, I think it comes more from the international context. I

understand that the elections are still a way off, that you were saying the lists aren't out yet, we don't know if

there will be primaries. I think that's also a bit part of the game, isn't it? I mean, by the time we know the lists,

it might be too late, eh? Or at least that's what the market might think. Truthfully, I don't see a very big

political change from today to a month and a half ago when you had bonds yielding 89. I think we are still in

the same situation. In fact, just this week the government bought reserves. >> Yes, quite a lot.

>> Uh, which is something we haven't commented on. >> Half of what they bought in all of

September. >> Half of what they bought in all of September. We knew, and we have always

been saying that these were complicated months to buy reserves, but well, they gave the signal. They bought like 150

million in two days. You can see it on the chart, way to the right. There in October, you can see these days'

purchases. They are three fairly large candles compared to the plateau we had been having, but politically, I don't

see a big trigger today to explain this move, >> okay,

>> this Argentine movement. It seems to me that >> there was no news,

>> there was no news, there was no change, and you don't have anything new from the opposition side either that could

be a significant factor. I mean, what Dami was saying, when the lists are defined, uh, today you start having in

the consultancies and so on, possible scenarios with a centrist Peronism, uh, and and a Peronism more, uh, I don't

know how to put it, but more taken to the extreme. And the truth is that it is a supposition that is difficult to

put forward now. First because you don't know the candidate and second because I think it's like thinking too

much about the candidate, uh, putting too much weight on what one wants to happen versus what might actually

happen. Uh, I don't see a political change for now that explains this whole move. I do think that the same news we

had a year ago hits harder today. I mean, the impact of a tiny mistake today is stronger than it was a year

ago, right? And that starts to affect your mood. But there is a lot of selling flow in Argentina, really,

right? The flow is just steamrolling you. >> Yeah, yeah. And look, we also have a

chart to compare with what's happening, because the drop isn't just happening here. We've been saying this, yes, that

there's an issue where you get hit twice in Argentina, unlike sovereign bonds in other countries, just as we

mentioned earlier about the XLF, which is dropping a lot, and you have the Argentine sector that has been falling

a lot too. So, we are pretty much in line with what's been happening globally. Look at this chart, sovereign

risk spread; I mean, this is the spread for Argentina, Ecuador, and the Latin American average, excluding Venezuela

and Argentina, as it says there, against the risk-free rate. Well, Argentina, the blue line, went up a lot

, >> very battered, but Ecuador's bonds also dropped a lot.

>> But watch out because, I mean, Latin America ex-Venezuela and Argentina are better credits than us. Brazil, Chile,

Uruguay are better, I mean, they are bonds with better credit scores. For us , it makes sense that in a time of rate

uncertainty, they defend you better. >> They defend you better, but the point is that even being better credits, they

also got hit very hard because the spread >> going up is very bad for bonds, for the

price per se of each of the bonds. So all these lines that we are seeing going up, mostly the blue one, right?

Which is us, which is Argentina, it's the one rising the fastest, but the red line, which is Ecuador, is having its

spread rise very sharply, meaning it's losing a lot of value. An Ecuador bond dropped 7 or 8 dollars.

>> Yes, yes, yes. >> The same with Latin America. They have lost price.

>> And what we talked about before regarding corporates, regardless of the company, we don't do much Pampa. Pampa

2037 also fell like >> forget about it. An Ecopetrol company bond dropped just like a Tech Petrol

bond from Argentina. >> Nobody, absolutely nobody. My friend Flutki, a trader on the desk. I think

there's a double top in Argentina. Good for the country. >> Look at how it just dropped. And we'll

see today if they lower them. >> We'll have to see, we'll have to see, we'll have to see. Maybe they’ll

start lowering rates. If that happens, it’s because the market starts buying sovereign bonds. Are you guys buying

here? Not buying? >> That’s a good question. >> I’m doing 29 at 13%.

>> We went to play paddle tennis on Wednesday and I think we spent 3 hours talking about the same topic and it was

hard to reach a conclusion. I like it, I like it for buying here. The thing is , with the American rate right in front

of us, I mean, it’s down today, but the truth is it’s been rising strongly.

>> The trend is upward, as Ferzlutski would say. So, from that side, it might be that the bond market gets a bit

rough. We need the bond snipers to come in and start buying at over 5.5%rate. But I like it for a small position, for

a small position, and maybe going into something with high duration, like the 1816 guys say, allows you to capture

that compression better. >> I agree, I agree. Very good explanation .

>> Excellent. >> Hey, maybe a like. Could be. We could beg for a like from the people in the

chat who supported us today, Friday, it’s been nice today. Uh, >> yes, lots of data, good conversations,

and we haven’t dived in yet in these final minutes. Let’s take the opportunity to talk about Brazil, as

there are elections on Sunday, primary elections, where a candidate needs more than 50%of the votes obtained to win in

the primaries. The market, prediction houses, polls, don't see anyone winning in the first round, neither Lula nor

Flavio Bolsonaro. They don't see anyone . The issue is, and I was listening today, actually yesterday I was

listening to the SAR, very good episode , the part about Brazil, he says that what you have to look at is how close

each one is to that 50%. Because the other candidates, who are neither of them, lean more toward Bolsonaro’s

ideology. So, if Lula ends up far from that 50%, it’s most likely he won't win the runoff, and if he’s at 48, 48

and a bit, well, there exists that possibility that he could end up winning in the runoff. Look, it says

there Bolsonaro 57%, of what? That he wins or that he gets 57%. I think >> I think it’s the probability that he

wins the first round. >> First round, >> right. Not that it’s that amount of

votes, >> not that he wins the first round. I mean, who is going to win the election

on Sunday? Bolsonaro. I agree with what you're saying. All the consultants or everything we've read almost take a

runoff for granted, but yes, I mean, the signal if you want, or how to start reading the result on Sunday, will come

from the difference between one and the other or how close the winner is to that 50%.

>> Bruno says he wins, that he wins, >> that he wins, exactly, >> but that he becomes president.

>> No, no, no, no. That he wins in the first round. >> Win. Okay. Okay.

>> Because in those, in those polls, at least the one I had seen on Poly Market , the rest of the candidates were also

there, they weighed, I don't know, half a percent or something like that. But well, so it was a first round

>> a runoff which is October 25th. >> October 25th >> to keep in mind.

>> Ah, quite close. >> Quite close. Yes. >> Less than a month. Here, here the last

one in the past presidential elections was a little more than a month. >> Three weeks.

>> Three weeks. >> Yes. The runoff is not, not the issue. The issue is the primaries that were

like, they were in August, >> yes? No, the primaries >> primaries in August and elections in

October, it splits you in half. >> Yes, it creates a lot of expectations for you.

>> We have to, we have to see. Having said that, Nubank, quickly. What happened with Nubank, speaking of expectations

and volatility? Nubank had, uh, news over the weekend that wasn't official, but came out as a leak that they had,

that they had made an offer to buy an English bank called Monzo, which is a digital bank also very similar in

business to Nubank. And what came out in the news is that they had offered billions of dollars and Monzo is valued

at 4.5, so they offered more than double. Obviously the market reacted terribly to that news. It fell 10%on

Monday and what was strange is that the company didn't come out directly on Monday to clarify, uh, which is

something that in a situation like this one would say, well, uh, you have to come out quickly to correct that

mistake or, or to restore confidence. And yet, just yesterday, well, actually , they did it yesterday, no, wait,

Wednesday, Wednesday afternoon, they released a statement saying they weren't thinking of acquiring Monzo and

that it was a transaction they weren't involved in, basically that it was fake news, and it rose quite a bit yesterday

; I don't know if it fully recovered the drop, but it got pretty close. Obviously, it's a company that's, I

mean, aggressive within the banking sector, so it also makes sense to have a risk premium right now, with one day

left until the election, I mean, there's really only one trading session left before the election. So, anyway, I

still like it. >> It should, it should rise 2%to get back to the level it was at before the 10%

drop. Perfect. >> And well, we'll have to see what happens in the elections this Sunday in

Brazil, we'll see what happens and how the initial result impacts Argentina as well. The most likely scenario is a

runoff, at least that's the information circulating. I don't know how it works in Brazil, but here in Argentina, the

polls have been a bit off. I don't know what Brazil's ICG would be, the government confidence index. Well, I

don't speak Portuguese. But to follow up quickly, what do you have in your portfolio and why?

>> This week, uh, I have, well, I have a lot of cash. I'm at a moment >> crunchy ones, the famous ones.

>> I have pesos >> earning interest. I have pesos earning interest, and to be honest, I'm

doubting what to do with that, but 25% of my portfolio is cash waiting for opportunities. This week I bought a

little bit of Nubank when it dipped and I was adding some Google as well, so those are my purchases. Sorry, let me

make a comment there, uh, very, I mean, it was a good week for the peso market, uh,

>> yes, >> with, I mean, with all the noise Argentina has had, Merval down hard,

bonds down hard, and the pesos held up very well. Uh, let's remember that during last year's elections, during a

moment of bond instability, the index-linked bonds were yielding inflation plus 30%, I mean, a different

price level, and yet this week they held their ground strongly. It seems like a point in its favor, right? For

holding pesos, uh, no, I'm not recommending standing in pesos, rather, it seems to me that it's a good sign of

strength, if you will, of the curve in our currency. >> Yes, interesting. Interesting. With a

peso that—with a dollar that although it was volatile between 42 and 50 it was. 1542 and 1550. What do I like?

Well, for me to monitor Argentina's banking sector, let's see, from Argentina, Galicia is flat for now at

the market open. Nvidia is very strong, eh, Nico and I always say when Nvidia drops 15%you have to pay up, we never

pay. They're at all-time highs now. >> Yes, yes, yes. It's happened more than once already, that's the worst part.

>> I think three times. >> Yes, yes. And all three times >> you have to close your eyes.

>> You have to close your eyes and go ahead and buy. Let's go to our grandmother's house. We sell all her

jewelry and buy Nvidia. Nothing. Well, >> if they are buying, we should buy too. >> Well, that's an interesting piece of

data. At ATH they start buying stocks. It's very interesting. I liked it. I liked that piece of data. With that

said, it being 10:31 in the morning on this great sunny Friday and with all the information we gave you, we send

you a big hug. Thanks for being here, for leaving a like, for participating in the comments which we love, and have

an excellent weekend, people. See you next time. Bye bye. >> Bye bye.