Overview of Current Market Conditions
The stock market is undergoing significant volatility reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Notably, major indexes like the Dow and NASDAQ have seen sharp declines, with individual stocks such as IBM suffering substantial losses amid AI-related fears. For more context on managing such market turbulence, see Navigating Stock Market Crashes: Strategies for Wise Investors.
Tesla Hedge Strategy
- Tesla acts as a market downturn hedge due to its high volatility and valuation.
- The plan is to sell half of the Tesla hedges when the NASDAQ (Q's) drops 7% from all-time highs, and fully exit at a 10% decline.
- Potential SpaceX IPO could pressure Tesla’s stock due to capital reallocation.
- Proceeds from Tesla hedge sales are intended to move into undervalued SaaS stocks.
SaaS Stocks: Current Valuation and AI Impact
- Despite market pessimism, SaaS companies like Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow exhibit strong fundamentals with double-digit revenue and earnings growth.
- Forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to attractive levels (Salesforce ~14, Adobe ~10, ServiceNow ~24).
- AI integration creates a symbiotic yet parasitic dynamic where SaaS firms rely on LLM (Large Language Model) providers but also face margin pressures.
- SaaS companies adapt by developing proprietary AI solutions and new pricing models to maintain profitability.
- Market skepticism is overblown; the long-term outlook for SaaS remains positive. For a deeper understanding of AI’s impact on tech valuations, explore Elon Musk on Future Tech, AI, Social Media, and Entrepreneurial Advice for India.
PayPal's Potential Buyout Opportunity
- PayPal stock surged due to takeover rumors, with bidders interested in the entire company or specific assets.
- Currently trading around $44, with potential buyout prices estimated between $75 and $100 per share.
- PayPal’s low forward P/E (~7) and strong cash flows make it an attractive acquisition target.
- CEO compensation incentives may align with facilitating a sale.
- Investors should watch for buyout announcements in the next 3-5 months and consider exiting upon news.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Outlook
- Bitcoin and Ethereum remain weak, correlating with market risk-off sentiment.
- Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin’s bottom may occur in late 2024, potentially as low as $20,000-$30,000.
- Investors should remain cautious and monitor price support levels.
Market Downtrend Outlook and Investment Strategy
- A prolonged market downtrend into Q4 2024 is possible but would require new significant negative events ("black swans").
- SaaS stock bottoming within the next 30 trading days is expected, potentially signaling a broader market recovery.
- Leading tech stocks have become more reasonably valued relative to their earnings prospects, with many trading at moderate forward P/E ratios despite strong growth.
- Long-term investors should focus on fundamental analysis, risk management, and avoid reacting solely to short-term market sentiment. For comprehensive strategies during volatile periods, refer to Navigating a Volatile Trading Day: Insights and Strategies.
Final Advice to Investors
- Continue focusing on quality companies with solid business models.
- Use market volatility to build positions in undervalued stocks.
- Keep emotions in check; market panics are common but short-lived.
- Consider joining specialized investment groups for education and community support.
By understanding market complexities such as AI's evolving role, hedging strategies, and acquisition dynamics, investors can better position themselves for potential gains amid uncertainty. Stay disciplined, informed, and patient to navigate these challenging financial waters successfully. For broader perspectives on market shifts and investment strategies, see Market Insights: Understanding Corrections, Tariffs, and Investment Strategies.
Ladies and gentlemen, I got started in the great financial crisis with my investing journey started late 2008. And
let me just tell you certain time periods in the stock market. It's going to give you incredible opportunities,
but it's going to test you. And it says if you want this opportunity, you better be brave financially because it is not
going to make it easy on you. And I'm seeing the market go through one of those time periods. Right now, I'm
looking at the public account. Public account seems to take one step forward and two steps back over the last several
months now at this point in time, right? ever since it hit its all-time high way back in around sometime around
Halloween, right? Takes one step forward, two steps back. And that seems like what's going on out there. We're
looking at the market here today. Dow down big nearly a,000 points. NASDAQ down pretty big. IBM getting slaughtered
today. I recently saw it. It was down 13%. Anthropics programming language threats. Everything's being threatened
by AI right now. Everybody's running to conclusions. I posted this on X here today. I said, I just vibe coded Amazon.
They're irrelevant now. Use my vibe code, baby. And we're going to do everything through my vibe code. I'm
Jeremy Bezos. Now, at this point in time, baby, we're rocking. Okay, that's a sentiment we have out there. By the
way, if you ever want to follow me on X, I always have it linked in the description area of all my videos.
Looking at the public account positions here today, some of them at least. Uh, you know, obviously the TSLZ are are
moving up quite dramatically here today. But PayPal, look at this. This is the only way we can get PayPal to go up.
Everything else in the market has to crash. If we can just get the Dow to go down a,000 points a day, I think PayPal
can eventually go to 80 or $100 a share, it's unbelievable, right? And look at stocks like Cake, stocks like Celsius,
stocks like Estee Lauder. Those stocks are holding incredibly strong despite everything going on out there. And it's
a lot, right? It hurts out there. S&P 500 down 2%. People like, "Oh my gosh, like market's hardly down 2 3% from
alltime highs." But look at the damage. Microsoft, Mr. oft usually known as one of the safest stocks in the market down
30% from all-time highs. PaloAlto Networks down 36%. Crowdstrike down 38%. Palunteer down 38%. Applovin down 50%.
Salesforce usually seen as one of the safest companies in the entire stock market down 52% from its all-time high.
It's been over cut in half. And to it, another one of usually the safest business models to invest in the market.
Down 57% from all-time highs. Service Now is down nearly 60% now. Oracle's down over 60%. Adobe used to be seen as
one of the safest business models in the world as of just two or three years ago. And now the stock has fallen 65% from
its all-time high. The damage out there is incredible. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to be incredibly weak.
Usually something you want to look at if you want to know if the market's going risk on or risk off. Look at the
weakness, ladies and gentlemen. Bitcoin 64,000 trying to hold. it might go 63 and and you know it bounced off that
60,000 level what is that a few weeks ago now at this point in time if we see it break and it goes into the 50s look
out below right Ethereum that baby might not bottom till it's under a thousand the Bitcoin cycle I brought this up
several times over the past few months here I think it's important right we got something that really trades off of
technicals in a major way Bitcoin doesn't have fundamentals the same way as stock does when it comes to earnings
and revenues and all those sorts of things right margins Bitcoin runs runs heavily on technicals and this baby is
not supposed to bottom until the fourth quarter of this year. That's a long time from now and the bottom is supposedly
supposed to be 30,000 or below somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000. Keep in mind Bitcoin cycle could always be wrong but
a lot of people say it's very accurate. So just keep this in mind ladies and gentlemen in regards to those assets
there. Look at someone like Hims. Hims has lost another nearly half of its value just in the past month. This stock
used to be 70 something dollar stock. It's 15 bucks here today. the brutality, right? Micro tragedy was 400 plus last
summer. It's down to $123. Robin Hood was around 150 back in the fall time. That baby's down to 71. It's
been over cut in half. Coinbase has been way over cut in half. That was 400 plus last summer. It's now $159.
SoFi hasn't been hit as far as some of these other stocks, but still SoFi is all the way down to 18 bucks a share now
at this point in time. Little Dingo, Duelingo. Oh, brutal, man. This stock was $500 plus dollars 9 months ago.
We're talking a baby. We're talking a baby. It's $16 here today from 500 plus 9 months ago.
Do the math on that. Oh, okay. Three core subjects I want to speak about here today in this one. Okay. One is when am
I going to plan on cutting these Tesla hedges loose? Okay. They're starting to appreciate. When am I going to cut them
loose and go ahead and move that money and where am I going to move that money into? Okay. Second subject up here,
PayPal. PayPal been a horrible stock, right? We all know that it's been dead money the last few years. There might be
a big quick money-making opportunity here. I'll speak about that, take you through what's going on there. And um if
certain things work out, it could be a lot of money made over the next 6 to9 months. But I'll run you through kind of
what's going on there and the risk involved because obviously none of these things are guaranteed. Okay. Third
subject we're going to get into here today is could this market downtrend all the way to Q4, right? which is would
basically be in line with where Bitcoin is supposed to go over the next uh we call six, seven months here now at this
point in time. Okay, so we'll get into all that in this video here today. One thing, one thing only I need from you
guys. If you haven't already done so, if you could please just smash that like button, hit that little thumbs up button
for me, that would mean the world. Thank you to everybody that's already done it. And additionally, make sure you
subscribe to the channel. If you're not subscribed, make sure you're subscribed. I think we're close to 920,000
subscribers now on the channel, which is insane. If you ever told me I'd have 920,000 subscribers, I'd be like, "What?
You got to be flipping my flapjacks. No way, Jose." But here we are, right? Okay, ladies and gentlemen, listen. I
just got to mention something about AMD. Here we are in a moment where the stock market's running these conclusions. AI
is going to take over everything, right? It's all going to make the sass irrelevant. It's going to make
everything irrelevant. everything everything's irrelevant just AI everything right it's going to eliminate
everybody's jobs and I don't know whatever okay so here we are at this moment where the market's running that
conclusion conclusion and AMD is under 200 make it make sense it doesn't make any sense and that's why I say the
market just runs these conclusions it's crazy because if you were really running that conclusion you know how many AMD
chips are going to be needed over the next few years you know how many Nvidia chips going to be like if AI's really
taken over the whole game oh my god Gosh, AMD should be a,000 right now. Nvidia should be a,000 right now, not
under 200. That's just silly. Okay. Crazy crazy. Okay, so Tesla hedges, when am I going to cut those loose? So, you
know, as far as the Tesla hedges in the public account, they've done decent, but they haven't done that great uh as of
yet. So, one of the hedges, it's up like about $5,000. The other hedge is up like 3,100. I don't know why in I think one
was cash, one was margin. So like split them or whatever, right? Keep in mind I do not invest on margin in the public
account. Uh there's a lot of risk that comes to that. Okay. I could margin up to uh three something million dollars if
I wanted to. Obviously, I have no interest in doing that. I don't want to have to deal with margin calls. The
market goes crazy. Blah blah blah, right? But anyways, so when am I going to cut these babies loose? Here's kind
of what I'm thinking. I'm planning on cutting half those loose and taking the profits if and when the Q's go down 7
plus% from all-time highs. We're not far from that. Right now, the Q's are down about 5 1.5% from all-time highs. So,
once we reach that, I'm ready to go there. Now, you might think I'm waiting on something specific to happen with
Tesla. Not really. This Tesla hedge is really around a market move down, right? Like Tesla's a great hedge against it
because it trades at such an insane valuation. So if the market goes risk off, usually Tesla gets hit a lot
heavier, right? So look at a day like today. A day like today, uh the NASDAQ's down what 1.2% or something like that or
the Q's are down that much, right? And and check out how much Tesla's down. So Tesla's down 3% today. And the Q's are
down I think I have the Q's somewhere here. There's the Q's. The Q's are down 1.2%. 2%. Tesla's down, you know, 3%. So
Tesla's down over a double up of what the Q's is down, right? So that's why I'm really betting against Tesla. It's
it sells off way harder in a market downtrend than the NASDAQ does and the SP500 does or something like that,
right? And so that's why it's really around a market move down hedge and not like oh it's just like me basing upon
you know Tesla's fundamentals or something like that cuz we know Tesla trades at crazy PE ratios and all sorts
of things right we don't need to go into that it's really around a market move and my opinion is I'll sell the rest uh
if and when we see the Q's go down 10% plus that will be the moment I'll say you know what I'm done with this no that
doesn't mean the market bottoms exactly there it could go down more I'm not worried about trying to get it at the
perfect time right now. There is a potential Tesla continues to downtrend regardless of the market over the next 6
to9 months. And the reason being is if they end up doing the SpaceX IPO, I think that's going to bring a lot of
capital out of Tesla stock and actually uh you know selling major selling pressure because people are going to
want to buy SpaceX cuz then that's going to be the new most exciting company in the world, right? Oh my gosh, we're
going outer space and doing all these things, right? And Starlink and all that stuff. So that's kind of what I'm up to
there. So, the bottom line is let let's say the Q's go down 5% for the rest of this week, which probably isn't
happening, but let's say that happens. You I'll probably cash all my Tesla this week when it comes to Tesla Hedge. And
then where am I going to move that money into? I'll show you exactly where I'm going to move that money into. I would
then have proceeds well over $100,000, right? I would move that money into SAS stocks. Talking Salesforce, CRM, I'm
talking Adobe. I'm talking Service Now. These stocks I've always felt like probably bottom at some point in Q1. And
that's why I've been trying to build out my positions rapidly. If you see what I'm buying and what I'm buying heavy so
far in Q1, what is it? It's SAS stocks because I truly believe these stocks likely bottom in Q1. I could be wrong
about that. Maybe they never bought them. Maybe their business model is just going to be completely eroded over the
next few years by AI and they're going to become completely irrelevant. I do not believe that's the case whatsoever.
I think the markets has has this wrong by a mile. I think absolutely there's certain business models that are going
to be you know irrelevant 3 years out 5 years out from now that you know AI will replace but I do not believe that's
Salesforce I do not believe that's Service Now I do not believe that it's Adobe and the more you're in the real
world the more you realize you can't just replace these companies doesn't work like that I mean somebody I work
very closely with Andre he gave me a great example just a few days ago over the weekend he was just trying to have
AI. I think he was using chat GBT latest model. He was just having trying to have it do like a simple illustration for him
on kind something he kind of wrote on paper and it wouldn't do it because he wrote CNBC on the graphic and since he
had wrote CNBC it basically thought this was something that was taken from CNBC which it wasn't. It was his complete
like original thing. He just put CNBC on it because it was relevant to you know kind of like you know listening to CNBC
and those sorts of things versus actually doing research and it couldn't even do it. So what did he have to do?
He had to go to Photoshop, Adobe product, and actually do it himself, right? And this is just like something
we find time and time again of like you want AI to do something and it just doesn't do it because of this problem or
that problem or it just doesn't do it to a high level and you're like, I needed to look better and like it ends up being
more of a pain to actually like, you know, you could finish in Photoshop in less than 5 minutes and do it the exact
way you want or you can mess around with the chatbot for 20 minutes and it still isn't the way you want it. and it screws
up again and again and again again. It's like come on, man. No, there's thoughts that like, well, eventually these things
are going to get so good that you won't need uh Adobe or something like that at all, right? And we'll see about that.
Like, but that it's not there. Like, it's just not there. So, could that happen? Sure, that could always happen,
but it's not there today, right? So, that's my opinion kind of on these sorts of stocks. And and the other reason is
usually when you're going through a stage in the market where a whole sector, a whole industry is just being
wrecked. And when I say wrecked, I'm really talking about the stock prices cuz the business models look great. They
look better than they've ever been. Just go through the numbers. Like almost all these companies have reported now, the
numbers are amazing. And there, if anything, they're guiding higher, right? Great guidance is is it's amazing. But
like the stock market is freaking out over all these stocks, right? So, what you need to have is stupid pricing on
stocks to really get them to bottom, right? Remember Meta bottoming under $100 a share? It was stupid. It was like
crazy, right? Remember Nvidia back in 2022? Remember Shopify went down to 22 $25? Remember how net low Netflix went
in that crash in 2022? Like, you just got to stupid pricing. And that's what needs to happen. And guess what? It has
now happened in regards to these SAS stocks. And that's why I think they're close to a bottom here. Salesforce is
now trading at a forward P under 14 with doubledigit revenue growth and strong double-digit EPS growth. We have Adobe
trading at a forward P of 10 with very strong earnings per share growth of double digits and we can call it revenue
growth of high single digits maybe low double digits. Right? Service Now is down to a forward P of 24 with a company
that's growing revenues and earnings per share at around a 20% clip. Right? This is getting to stupid pricing on
Salesforce, Adobe, Service Now, these sorts of stocks, right? It's just ridiculous. But that's where we're at.
That's where we're at, right? And so that's why I feel Q1 is likely the bottom for these particular stocks,
right? Now, it's important to understand what's going on here when you're trying to think about these SAS stocks and like
how do they play with these LLM models and all these sorts of things, right? I said LLM companies need SAS companies
and LLM companies will make a lot of money off SAS companies, right? And say as you hit the exact tension that's
defining the tech market in early 2026, what you're describing is often the LLM tax of the software world, right? The
the relationship is both symbiotic and parasitic. Uh as of February 2026, here's a reality of how this revenue
extraction is playing out between LLM providers, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and SAS giants like Salesforce, Service
Now, and Microsoft. LL why LLMs need SAS the distribution mo LLM companies have the brains but SAS companies have the
context and the workflow the data wall and LLM is only good if it sees the data right as it sees the data it has to see
the data so if Salesforce has all the data inside a company you know sales department
you need that like you you can't just go around that that's what's needed in reference to then start to use an LLM
model right Salesforce has 20 years of customer history. Service Now has every IT ticket your company ever filed.
Without that pri proprietary data, an LLM is just a smart person in a dark room. Very well put. Very well put. The
workflow habit. People don't want to go to chat GBT to do work. They want to stay in the app they already use. LLM
companies need SAS companies to be the delivery vehicle for their intelligence. how LLM companies make money off SAS,
the toll booth. This is where the money-making part of the point comes in. LLM providers have essentially turned
themselves into digital utilities like the electric company. The AIP every time a user asks an AI agent in SAS app to
summarize this meeting, draft this email, that SAS company pays a fraction of a cent in tokens to the LLM provider.
The margin squeeze. Take a company like Google customer service SAS. They might charge a client $1 for an automated or
that wasn't Google by the way. It was uh Gorgius, right? So Gorgias uh they might charge a client $1 for an automated AI
interaction, but they have to pay roughly 22 cents of that directly to the LLM provider for the compute scale. Open
AAI hit an estimated $20 billion in annual recurring revenue in late 2025. And a massive chunk of that isn't from
selling $20 a month subscriptions. It's from thousands of SAS companies plugged in to their API. How SAS companies are
planning to fight back. Usagebased pricing. SAS companies are stopping peruser fees and charging per task to
ensure they can pass the LLM cost on to the customer. Companies like Salesforce and Service Now are training their own
tiny LLMs to stop paying open AI for every task. Some SAS companies are now charging the LLM providers to access
their data for trading trying to turn the tax around. Very interesting, right? So LLM companies are the new landlords
of the internet. They're extracting a massive percentage of the value that SAS companies used to keep for themselves.
debatable because we have new tasks happening right in 2026. The question isn't whether LLMs will make money off
SAS. It's whether they'll be able to make any profit left or there will be any profit left for SAS companies once
the landlord takes his cut. And a spoiler alert, there's going to be plenty of profit. There's going to be
plenty of profit in the end, right? The big benny off. The big benny off. You know anything about Mark Beni off? Let
me tell you this, okay? The big benny off always finds his way to get his cut. Okay? You think the big big benny off is
just going to be like, "Oh, Mr. Altman, okay, you get all the money. I won't leave. I I won't." Come on, man. The big
Benny off, he's going to make a fortune off of this in the end. Are you kidding me? This whole AI wave. McDermott, all
these guys. Oh gosh. Oh man. They must be watching their stock prices go down and just laughing. Just laughing cuz
they know they got it on lock and like people just don't get it yet, right? But they'll get it. It happens all the time
in the stock market, right? Salesforce agent Force platform has experienced rapid adoption with annual recurring
revenue surpassing $540 million in Q3 of fiscal 2026, marking a 330% 330% year-over-year increase. Combined
with data cloud, these AIdriven tools reached nearly $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue. The platform is
driving significant growth with over 9,500 paid deals. Agent Force is central to
Salesforce's goal of reaching over $60 billion of revenue in 2030. Listen, ladies and gentlemen, just two
and a half months ago, we heard from Salesforce. And by the way, we're going to hear from Salesforce again here in a
couple weeks. Okay? You know what happened with Salesforce? They raised their forecast. They didn't take their
forecast down. They raised their forecast as agent for sales topped $500 million. Okay. So,
we have a situation here where Beni off's going to make a fortune off of this in the end, but the market doesn't
get it yet, right? And a lot of other companies are going to make a fortune off of it. The market doesn't get it
yet. They don't understand exactly how this is all going to work. They think like the LM are going to take all the
money or something like that. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. The SAS company's going to make a fortune in the end in
regards to this game. Right? So, keep this in mind, right? I woke up today. You know, everything's pretty much the
same around here. The neighbors still shooting on next year's deer. Uh, listen, you know what I did? All the
same stuff I've been doing. You know, if I want to watch something, I go to YouTube. If I want to go to my private
group and be in the Discord chat, right? I go to Discord. If I want to go on X, I go on X. If I want to just pull up my
massive amounts of watch list, I go to Trading View, which should soon be done on thousandx, by the way. The hint hint.
uh when I did all my research in regards to companies and valuations and conference calls and all that stuff
today, I used guess what thousandx.com, right? Uh if I wanted to communicate with the individuals in my small
businesses, we go to Slack to talk about things, right? Loom is where I record videos, right? All the same softwares.
I'm not vibe coding YouTube. I'm not vibe code next. I'm not vibe coding Discord or Trading View or 1000X or
Slack or Zoom, right? All these softwares are used day in and day out and they're not just being replaced.
It's not happening, right? And AI is not new. It's been around for years now at this point in time, right? And so this
is like I have no I have no interest in vibe coding away Slack to try to save some money so we can have a service
that's way worse with a bunch of bugs. Just not interested. I'm not interested in vibe coding like some sort of Discord
replacement so I can have my private stock group members be in some vibecoded thing instead of Discord. No. Like this
is just ridiculous, man. Just ridiculous. You know, the things I do on ThousandX, it would take me forever to
do all this stuff through LLMs. Oh my gosh. And it wouldn't even be done right. It would be a mess versus just
use ThousandX and it's so simple and so easy to just do all my stuff. And so, you know, sometimes you got to ask
yourself in the real world like what are you actually doing, right? And so I use AI. I use Google Gemini every single day
pretty much, right? Like that's a natural workflow. But in terms of, oh yeah, it's going to replace everything
and we're just going to use all this stuff and like come on, man. Like it's just it's ridiculous, right? And so the
stock market has, you know, there's a long-term truth in regards to like I had it there was one of the most ridiculous
things I heard today. Okay, I had CNBC on in the background while I was working and you know what they said? This guy
goes on there. You know what he says? He compared these SAS companies, the greatest some of the greatest business
models we've ever seen. He compared them to newspapers, the newspaper
business models of like, you know, 2002 through 2009 and all the newspaper business model look fine. I'm like, what
are you talking about? You're comparing newspapers to some of the greatest CEOs and companies we've ever seen in history
with their insanely talented workforces. Like, this is ridiculous. But that's what we have going on right now. Like,
okay. Yeah, Salesforce is a newspaper. Service Now's a newspaper. Adobe's a newspaper. Like, it's just come on, man.
Like, we've gotten to we've gotten to the the the silliest stage. And what I said in this, what happens in the
silliest stage is you have valuations on these companies go to the silliest levels where you're just throwing out
anything and people are like, "Yeah, oh yeah, they're the newspaper. Yeah, I I captain."
So, you have the long-term truth versus short-term delusions in the market, right? And the market goes through these
time periods of very intense short-term anxiety. Huge short-term anxiety the market goes through sometimes for the
entire stock market. Sometimes for particular sectors, particular industries, right? And we have one of
those time periods going right on right now, right? And you as an individual investor, you've got to stay focused on
the long term, right? And you've got to be able to decipher, run numbers on companies, run projections, think about
these business models, run the SWAT analysis, think about the strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, and threats
of companies, right? And be able to run all that and kind of figure out in your brain, okay, is this makes sense or is
this being ridiculous? Am I getting this stock at a very attractive valuation or am I not, right? And then you have to
put your chips on the table and say, you know what, I think I got a pretty good hand here. I love I love learning about
how to play poker. I live in Vegas and so many years ago I was like I just want to learn how to play on a high level.
I'm still trash by the way. You could easily take my money if you're good at poker. So just so you're aware. But I
learned I actually like took courses and everything like that to try to learn like how to play poker by the way. You
need to spend like $10 10 hours a day down there playing cards constantly to actually get great at the game, right?
It's like so timeconuming. It's ridiculous. All for 800 bucks is insane. But anyways, I learned how to play the
game on a high level, right? In terms of how you think about the game, right? At the end of the day, dude,
you're holding a strong flush. You got to put the chips on the table, you know, and you got to you got to, you know,
say, "Okay, does this make sense? Had this guy play his hand? You know what? I got a strong flush here. Could I get
beat by something else?" I could, but does that make sense to get beat by something else? A straight flush or a
royal flush? Like, uh, probably not. You know what? I think I'm going to go ahead and I think I'm going to, you know, bet
this hand strongly, right? And sometimes you might be wrong and you know you might get beat out but and you had an
extremely strong hand and you played it right but somehow you still got beat in the end. And that's you got to be
willing to take that risk. It's the cost of doing business, right? And so for all my individuals out there that are
long-term thinkers, just focus on the long term. The short term will be what the short term is going to be. The
delusions, the market freaks out all the time. Whole market goes down, whole sector goes down, whole industry goes
down, right? And then months tick on, years tick on, and then people realize, you know what, maybe we
went a little too crazy there. That was maybe a little bit silly, right? If you're a long-term focused individual
and you've got $100,000 plus net worth, feel free to apply join private group. That will be the pinned comment down
there. Uh we have just, you know, we have 3,000 plus members in there. So many folks that have multi6 figures,
multi-se figures, and even eight figure investors in there, right? You get to be in there with myself. Exclusive weekly
videos, access to all my course curriculum so you can learn everything I got up here so you don't feel like
you're gambling the market. You feel much more confident when you go to make decisions. Access to thousandx.com,
all that good stuff. That will be the pinned comment down there is take you up to a higher level than where you're at.
Okay, next up here, PayPal. PayPal. Okay, big potential quick money-making opportunity here. Okay, so what's going
on here? Well, PayPal is today's top S&P 500 stock. Man, that might be the first time I ever heard that headline. Holy
smokes, is this ain't no dang jokers. PayPal's today's top like I got to say it one more time. PayPal is today's top
S&P 500 stock. Oh my gosh. Like this. You might never hear that again. Oh gosh. Okay, so what's going on here?
Well, PayPal stock was up significantly today because of takeover interest. At least one large at least one large rival
is interested in the whole company while others are interested in certain assets. Bloomberg reported citing people
familiar with the matter. Okay, so we have a potential here reports that PayPal is looking I don't want to say
PayPal's looking there's reports that PayPal is being approached to sell the whole company.
Okay. or potentially sell sell certain assets inside the company like maybe it's braintree maybe it's some other
asset they have they have a bunch of other assets they own right we know PayPal and Venmo are the core of the
company so I could see you know a lot of people being interested in PayPal you have extremely
you have one of the best business models in the world right not in terms of growth PayPal's growth is very little
but in terms of just an absolute money printer of a business as PayPal. You have two great services that are used by
hundreds of millions of people, right? Between PayPal and Venmo, you have the Brainree side of the business. You have
an extremely low P ratio here. The forward P on PayPal is like seven. And you got a very strong balance sheet, and
you got a great income statement. And you got a company that's just buying back shares left and right, right? And
it's just a money printer. And so, I can definitely see many people being interested in buying PayPal, the
company, right? So if this sale happens, what price am I thinking? My opinion is if the company sells the whole company
to somebody else, whoever that suitor is, right? I think it will sell between $75 and $100 a share. The stock today,
even after today's big move, is $44 a share. So if this happens this year, and we hear an announcement that PayPal's
going to sell to blah blah blah company, I think it happens somewhere in that price range. Right now, you might say,
"Well, why didn't they do it before?" Because before PayPal was like a $60ome dollar stock. So, to come in with a
price at $75 or $100, it's not that big of a premium that the shareholders would likely have gone to it. Now that
PayPal's gone to the 40s, now if you come in with a $75 bid, an $80 bid, an $85 bid, suddenly shareholders like,
"Shoot, that's like a double up from here. You know what? We'll go ahead and take that. We'll vote on that." Right?
No. At this particular price, I would put PayPal's forward P somewhere between probably about 11 and 16, which I think
is a very fair valuation considering PayPal's assets. So, what would happen to the public account here is my
position would then be worth somewhere between 225,000 and $300,000. Now, the moment a potential buyout happens, the
stock would blast higher. Like let's say company XYZ also announces and I don't mean literally company XYZ I just mean
some company because I think there is a company named XYZ now right but let's say a company says okay we're buying
PayPal $77 a share stock explodes higher the next day to $70 a share right I'm out I'm gone
I'm out baby that's what I would do with that okay I won't worry about the other $7 a share everybody else can worry
about that I don't want to have to worry about the government looking in and like or should we approve this or not or any
of that other BS like they they all get an announcement $85 a share we're selling the company and the stock goes
to 75 I'm out I'm good I'm good okay I'm moving that money elsewhere if that were to happen right and do I think it's a
realistic possibility I do think it's a very realistic possibility it also kind of makes sense I saw the CEO
compensation package if you dive deep into the CEO compensation package it also kind of makes sense that and it
seemed like he's a type of guy you would put there to try to do a deal like this. Like I just looked at it, I'm like,
seems like they would put a CEO like that in place if you were going to try to sell assets inside the company or
maybe the entire company, right? So it looks like based upon how I read through his compensation package. I honestly I
think he would be very incentivized to sell this company for around $80 a share or so. That's just based upon what I
read in the compensation package. It looks to me reading through this as somebody who's been in the market 17
years. It looks like he'd be highly incentivized to try to sell the company for $80 a share or so, right? Can't bank
on these things, maybe it doesn't happen, right? But I do also think it's very interesting. Did you see the
options move in regards to like you got to keep an eye on other things outside just a stock price move cuz stock price
moves up 5% today. But look what was going on in the options market, right? Because if you're thinking about a
buyout comes, buyout announcement would probably come in the next three to five months if it happens, right? And so, but
the buyout probably wouldn't go through until late 2026 or maybe even 2027. But I was looking at some of these call
option contracts that are kind of like a little later out, right? These are September 18th call options. 4250s,
which is right, you know, kind of where the stock is roughly trading at, you know, in in the, you know, kind of
between what it closed at on Friday versus where it's at today on Monday, right? And look at the pre, look at how
much they're willing to pay. They they bid that up almost 30% here today, right? And look at like 6250s, way out
of the money and 65s. Look at those strikes. Those are up 32% and 41% here today, right? People are only going to
do that if they're pretty confident there's a buy out coming here, right? And there's something going on there.
Now, also take a peek at these, right? By the way, who else is taking you inside option contracts here and showing
you this sort of uh stuff like this, right? Look at this. July 17, 2026's, right? Look at some of the moves today.
Remember, the stock moved 5%. Look at some of these moves here. The 45 strikes were up 35% today. The 4750s were up
36%. The $50 strikes were up 47% almost almost 50% today, right? That's a crazy big move. Look at the 5250s 33%
move. 55s are up about 30% here today. That's investors saying, "We think we think based upon the CEO's compensation
package, based upon the individual they picked to take over this role, based upon what the chatter we're hearing, and
based upon it makes sense for somebody to buy PayPal, they're they're feeling like a buyout's coming this year, right?
It's just a question of when it would be announced, right? So, very interesting, very very interesting to see what's uh
happening there in the options market and with the stock overall. So, would it be shocked if PayPal gets bought out
this year? Not at all. Um, it's just, you know, the thing is if it doesn't happen, it's not like a death blow to
the company. The company is an ATM machine. It's going to remain an ATM machine for years to go in the future.
And so, yeah, it has lame growth, but by the way, I'm wearing my red th00andx hat due to the red market, right? But man,
you know, obviously it's a money printer. Okay. Now, could this market downtrend all the way to Q4 of this
year? Well, it's possible, but we really need more black swans. We need more black swans that come out of nowhere and
like this big thing happens negative and this big thing happens negative, right? And so, I don't think it's the most
realistic, but it's possible. But you need more black swans. You need like this next big thing to happen. And it's
like, oh my gosh, whoa, we weren't expecting this. And then another big thing happens. They're like, whoa, we
weren't expecting this, right? In order to get this market to actually downtrend all the way to Q4. So, I don't think
it's super realistic. And here's why. Basically, I think SAS bottoms in the next 30 trading days. I think SAS is SAS
is a dominant subject in the market. And I feel like there's no confidence in the market until we get a bottom in SAS
stocks. Until we get a bottom in those SAS stocks, I feel like there just can't be any confidence out there. People are
just going to doubt every rally and they're going to believe every selloff. That's what's going to happen. Okay. So
my opinion is SAS bottoms in the next 30 trading days. The specific day I don't know. Okay, you know is it today? Is it
tomorrow? Is it next week? Is it next month? I don't know. But I think it happens in the next 30 trading days at
SAS bottoms. Okay. Now, additionally, here's the deal. We're already trading very attractive in regards to the
biggest stocks that really run the market. So, if you think about this market just plummets all the way to Q4,
it's tough. Here's why. Nvidia 26 FordP. Keep in mind, Nvidia is probably going to beat numbers throughout the whole
year. So that Ford P is probably like 22 or 21 right now. Okay, that's pretty darn low for Nvidia. So it's not like
Nvidia's trading at some crazy valuation. Apple has the best numbers we've seen probably since 2021 and
they're at a 34P right now. And they're seen as one of the few companies that's not disrupted by AI. So like it's not
like Apple's like a crazy price right now. Microsoft's forward P is down to like 21. Amazon's down to 25, which for
Amazon, if you know anything about Amazing, that's incredibly cheap. Google McDougall's at like a 27 and they're now
seen as like arguably the biggest AI winner and beneficiary and now they're seen as a chip business could be booming
over the coming years along with Gemini and what they're putting together as an AI product offering. So Google at 27 if
they're actually going to be the biggest you know one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI is like hm maybe
that's um a little too cheap uh for Google McDougall. Meta's at a 24p. Broad comes at a 32, which they obviously have
a rapidly growing business right now, and they're seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries of that. So, they're not
expensive at 32. Tesla's crazy. Obviously, Tesla's 201, but Tesla's Tesla, right? Like, you know, it just is
what it is. Uh Bergkshire Hathway is at 22. So, it's not like these valuations on these big tech stocks are like
expensive now because a lot of the stock price have come down where the earnings have gone up quite a bit. So, you can't
make an argument like you can't look at Microsoft be like, "Oh, 214p. Oh, that's insane. Like, have you seen Azure
growth? Azure growth is close to 40% if I recall last quarter, right? Like, come on. Like AWS growth is accelerating
right now. The e-commerce business looks incredibly strong. So, 25 for Amazon's cheap. Meta is at 20. Meta is going to
report likely revenue growth of 30 plus% in this next quarter. They're going to about to report. Did you hear what I
just said? I just said Meta is likely going to have revenue growth of over 30% when they report this next quarter with
a Ford P of 20. I know they're spending a fortune depreciation is going to hit. I've
talked about that a million times and that could be a hang up on Meta over the next few years and why Meta's harder to
move up as far as stock price unless people start valuing it in regards to, you know, operating cash flow. But
listen, it's hard to, you know, could Microsoft go to a 154P? I mean, it's possible. Could Amazon go to a 174P?
Like, I mean, it's possible, but it's just like really really we're going to do that. Like, that's kind of silly,
right? So, here's what could happen next in my opinion. Okay, market bottoms in the next 30 trading days, right? SAS see
sets the bottom, right? SAS sets the bottom. IGV starts to move up. this insane constant selling pressure it
seems like day in and day out of these stocks finally ends and you finally get people to say you know what I think
these stocks have bottom and they start bidding them up right so that sets the bottom market sets a bottom in the next
30 trading days right and then the market goes beast mode second quarter into third quarter let's say meta
earnings are far better than expected revenue growth explodes even more than we thought let's say AWS growth is way
stronger than we thought okay then people say okay we get it we understand why they're spending so much growth
rates are going insane for these companies. Boom. Right? Market starts getting really excited really quickly
and all of a sudden the sentiment shifts on these stocks in a second and you it happens quick guys. It's not like sent
like look at how fast sentiment went on these big tech stocks from so positive about like everything is to the moon to
so negative. Look at SAS stocks. I mean the sentiment around these stocks was so great a year ago and look at how fast it
shift and look at how negative it is now at this point in time. Right? So if you think it doesn't shift the other way, of
course it does. So market all sudden goes beast mode second quarter into third quarter late Q3 and into Q4,
right? We have a new drama show is around Bitcoin. It's around elections and everything going on there. It's
around oh these companies, yeah, big tech has better growth than expected, but what's their capex going to be for
2027? Maybe they're going to up it way more, right? Fears around that. So we could have a drama show that comes late
in the year, but it comes after you already had another major upward rally, right? So it ends up kind of just
netting out in the end, right? And so that's where you just got to focus on the long term here. Let the market do
what it does in the short term and freak out and you know everything's great and everything's bad and all this stuff it
does, right? You just got to stay focused on the long term. You know, buy great companies, continue to add them
more income than expenses. Focus on what you can focus on. Control what you can control. You know, if Salesforce stock
bottoms tomorrow, next week or next month, you can't control that, right? But if you think that's a great
opportunity to invest into over the next, you know, 6 to9 months, then you can take advantage of that, right? Um,
and if you feel like, no, it's not an opportunity, it's a value trap or whatever, then you don't have to invest
into it. You can find other opportunities. There's thousands of stocks in the market, right? That's the
beautiful thing about this. Okay, I appreciate you for joining me as always. Thank you so much for being here. If
you're looking to apply, join my private stock group, private wealth group, get access to thousandx.com, my private
Discord chat, exclusive weekly videos, all that good stuff. I'm actually going to record my private group a really good
educational video um here in just a bit. That will be the pinned comment down there. Now, keep in mind if you have
less than $100,000 net worth, you're always welcome to apply. You might not be the best fit for us, but you you're
always welcome to apply if you have under $100,000 net worth. Okay? Much love and have a great
Tesla's high volatility and valuation make it a good hedge against market downturns. The recommended strategy is to sell half of Tesla hedge positions if the NASDAQ drops 7% from its all-time high and fully exit if the drop reaches 10%. This approach helps lock in gains and manages risk during turbulent times.
SaaS companies like Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow have strong fundamentals with double-digit revenue and earnings growth. Their forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to attractive levels, making them undervalued. Additionally, their efforts to integrate proprietary AI solutions help maintain profitability despite margin pressures from reliance on external AI providers.
PayPal's low forward P/E ratio (~7), strong cash flow, and takeover rumors have increased its stock price, signaling buyout potential. Bidders may offer between $75 and $100 per share versus the current ~$44. Investors should monitor announcements closely and consider exiting their positions upon buyout news within the next 3-5 months to capitalize on potential premium offers.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are weak currently, reflecting a market risk-off environment. Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin's price may bottom between $20,000 and $30,000 in late 2024. Investors are advised to stay cautious, monitor support levels closely, and avoid hasty decisions until a clear recovery signal emerges.
Investors should focus on quality companies with solid business models, use volatility to accumulate undervalued stocks, and manage risk by avoiding emotional reactions to short-term market swings. A prolonged market downtrend is possible but would likely require major unforeseen negative events. SaaS stocks are expected to bottom soon, which may signal broader recovery opportunities.
AI creates a complex dynamic where SaaS companies benefit from integrating large language models but also face margin pressures from reliance on third-party AI providers. To mitigate this, many SaaS firms are developing proprietary AI solutions and innovative pricing models to maintain profitability while leveraging AI's capabilities.
Long-term investors should prioritize fundamental analysis, maintain discipline, and avoid reacting to panic or short-term market sentiment. Building positions in undervalued, quality stocks during downturns and participating in educational investment communities can provide support and improve decision-making through challenging market conditions.
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