From AGI to Superintelligence: Humanity's Last Invention and AI Future

humans rule Earth without competition but we're about to create something that may change that our last invention the

most powerful tool weapon or maybe even entity artificial super intelligence this sounds like science

fiction so let's start at the beginning intelligence is the ability to learn reason acquire Knowledge and Skills and

use them to solve problems intelligence is power and we're the species that exploited it the most so much so that

Humanity broke the game of Nature and took control but the journey there wasn't straightforward for most animals

intelligence costs too much energy to be worth it still if we track intelligence in the tree of species over time we can

see lots of diverse forms of intelligence emerge the earliest brains were in flatworms 500 million years ago

just a tiny cluster of neurons to handle basic body functions it took hundreds of millions of years for species to

diversify and become more complex life conquered New environments gained new senses and had to contend with Fierce

competition over resources but in nature all that matters is survival and brains are expensive so for almost all animals

a narrow intelligence fit for a narrow range of tasks was enough in some environments animals like birds

octopuses and mammals evolved more complex neural structures for them it paid off to have more energy consuming

skills like Advanced navigation and communication until 7 billion years ago the hominins emerged we don't know why

but their brains grew faster than their relatives something was different about their intelligence very slowly it turned

from narrow to General from a screwdriver to a multi-tool able to think about diverse Problems 2 million

years ago homo erector saw the world differently from anyone before as something be understood and transformed

they controlled fire invented tools and created the first culture we probably emerged from them around 250,000 years

ago with an even larger and more complex brain it enabled us to work together in large groups and to communicate complex

thoughts we used our intelligence to improve our lives to ask how things work and why things are the way they are with

each Discovery we asked more questions and pushed forward Ward preserving what we learned outpacing what evolution

could do with genes knowledge Builds on knowledge progress was slow at first and then sped up exponentially agriculture

writing medicine astronomy or philosophy exploded into the world 200 years ago science took off and made us even better

at learning about the world and speeding up progress 35 years ago the internet age began today we live in a world made

to suit our needs created by us us for us this is incredibly new we forget how hard it was to get here how enormous the

steps on the intelligence ladder were and how long it took to climb them but once we did we became the most powerful

animal in the world in a heartbeat but we may be in the process of changing this we're building machines

that could be better at the very thing that gave us the power to conquer the planet Humanity's final invention

artificial intelligence artificial intelligence or AI is software that performs mental

tasks with a computer code that uses silicon instead of neurons to solve problems in the beginning AI was very

simple lines of code on paper mere proofs of concept to demonstrate how machines could perform mental tasks only

in the 1960s did we start seeing the first examples of what we would recognize as AI a chatbot in 1964

approach program to sort through molecules in 1965 slow specialized systems requiring

experts to use them their intelligence was extremely narrow built for a single task inside a controlled environment the

equivalent of flat worms 500 million years ago doing the minimum amount of mental work progress in AI research

paused several times when researchers lost hope in the technology but just like changing environments create new

niches for Life the world around AI changed between 1950 and 2000 computers got a billion times faster while

programming became easier and widespread in 1972 AI could navigate a room in 1989 it could read handwritten numbers but it

remained a fancy tool no match for humans until in 1997 an AI shocked the World by beating the world champion in

chess proving that we could build machines that could surpass us but we calmed ourselves because a chest spot is

quite stupid not a flatworm but maybe a bee only able to perform a specialized narrow task but within this narrow task

it's so good that no human will ever again beat AI a chess as computers continued to improve AI became a

powerful tool for more and more tasks in 2004 it drove a robot on Mars in 2011 it began recommending YouTube videos to you

but this was only possible because humans broke down problems into easyto digest chunks that computers could solve

quickly until we taught AIS to teach themselves rise of the self-learning Machines this is not a technical video

so we're massively oversimplifying here in a nutshell the sheer power of supercomputers was combined with the

almost endless data collected in the information age to make a new generation of ai ai experts began drastically

improving forms of AI software called neur neural networks enormously huge networks of artificial neurons that

start out being bad at their tasks they then used machine learning which is an umbrella term for many different

training techniques and environments that allows algorithms to write their own code and improve themselves the

scary thing is that we don't exactly know how they do it and what happens inside them just that it works and that

what comes out the other end is a new type of AI a capable black box of code the these new AIS could Master complex

skills extremely quickly with much less human help they were still narrow intelligences but a huge step up in 2014

Facebook AI could identify faces with 97% accuracy in 2016 an AI beat the best humans in the incredibly complex game of

Go in 2018 a self-learning AI learned chess in 4 hours just by playing against itself and then defeated the best

specialized chess bot since then machine learning has been applied to reading image processing solving tests and much

more many of these AIS are already better than humans for whatever narrow task they were trained but they still

remained a simple tool AI still didn't seem that big of a deal for most people and then came the chatbot chat GPT the

work that went into it is massive it trained on nearly everything written on the internet to learn how to handle

language which it now does better than most people it can summarize translate and help with some math problems it's

incredibly more broad than any other system just a few years ago not crushing any single Benchmark but order of them

at once many large tech companies are spending billions to build powerful competitors AI is already transforming

customer service banking Healthcare marketing copyrighting creative spaces and more AI generated content has

already taken hold of social media YouTube and news websites elections are expected to be inundated by Propaganda

and misinformation no one is sure how much good or harm can come from adopting AI

everywhere change is scary there will be winners and losers one of the biggest questions governments and corporations

have now is how to manage the transition to an AI boosted economy all these potential gains or risks are just the

result of today's AI chat gpt's intelligence is a major step up but it remains narrow one it can write a great

essay in seconds it doesn't understand what it's writing but what if the AIS stopped being

narrow General AI what makes humans different from current AI is our general intelligence humans can technically

absorb any piece of knowledge and start working on any problem we're great at many very different skills and tasks

from playing chess to writing or solving science puzzles not equally of course some of us are experts in some fields

and beginners in others but we can technically do all of them in the past AI was narrow and able to become good at

one skill but was rather bad in all the others simply by building faster computers and pouring more money into AI

training will get us new more powerful generations of AI but what is the next step for AI is to become a general

intelligence like us an AGI if the AI improvement process continues as it has been it's not

unlikely that AGI could be better in most or even all skills that humans can do we don't know how to build AGI how it

will work or what it will be able to do since narrow AIS today are capable of mastering one mental task quickly HGI

might be able to do the same with all mental tasks so even if it starts out stupid and HGI might be able to become

as smart and capable as a human while this sounds like science sence fiction most AI researchers think this will

happen sometime this Century maybe already in a few years humanity is not ready for what will happen next not

socially not economically not morally earlier we defined intelligence as the ability to learn reason acquire

Knowledge and Skills and use them to solve problems all things humans excel at an AGI as intelligent as even an

average human would already disrupt modern civilization because they're not Bound by the same limitations as we are

today's AIS like chat gbt already think and solve the tasks they were made for at least 10 times faster than even very

skilled humans maybe AGI will be slower but it may also be faster maybe much faster and since HGI are software you

could copy them endlessly as long as you have enough storage and run them in parallel there are 8 million scientists

in the world now imagine an AI copied a million times and put to work imagine 1 million scientists working 24/7 thinking

10 times faster than humans without being distracted only focused on the task they've been given what if suddenly

HGI could do all intelligence-based jobs in the world from interpreting law to coding to creating animated YouTube

videos better faster and much cheaper than humans would whoever controls this AGI suddenly own the economy

and thinking bigger human progress is our intelligence applied to problems so what could a million agis

achieve solve fundamental questions of science like dark energy invent new technology that gives us Limitless

energy fix climate change cure aging and cancer but then again sadly humans apply their intelligence not just for the

benefit of all what if the agis are tasked to guide drones or pull the triggers in war or to engineer a virus

that only kills people with green eyes or to create the most profitable social media so addictive that people starve in

front of their screens the creation of AGI could reasonably be as big of an event as taming fire or electricity and

give whoever invents it equally as much power but now let's go one step further what if the potential of AGI doesn't

stop here intelligence explosion intelligence and knowledge build and accelerate each other but humans are

limited by biology and evolution once we evolved the right Hardware our software outpaced evolution by orders of

magnitudes and within a heartbeat we ruled this planet but our software basically hasn't changed much since then

which is why we have obesity and destroy the climate for short-term gains since AGI is software on a computer once it's

smart enough to do AI research the rate of AI progress should speed up a lot and that results in better AI That's better

at AI research without much human involvement it may even be possible that AI could learn how to directly improve

itself in which case some experts fear this feedback loop could be incredibly fast maybe just months or years after

the first self-improving hii is switched on maybe it would actually take decades we simply don't know this is all

speculative but such an intelligence explosion might lead to a true superintelligent entity we don't know

what such a being would look like what its motives or goals would be what would go on in its inner world we could be as

laughably stupid to superintelligence as squirrels are to us unable to even comprehend its way of

thinking this hypothetical scenario keeps many people up at night humanity is the only example we have of an animal

becoming smarter than all others and we have not been kind to what we perceive as less intelligent beings AGI might be

the last invention of humanity it's possible that it could become the most intelligent and therefore most powerful

being on earth a God in a box that could exercise its power to bring unimaginable wealth and happiness to humans while

securing our future or it could subvert civilization and bring about our end with Humanity unable to come up with a

way to stop it we'll look at some of these potential Futures in more videos but for now let's wrap up the only thing

we know for sure is that today right now many of the largest and richest companies in the world are racing to

create ever more powerful AIS whatever our future is we are running towards it who knows how long we have until we

must confront our AI future luckily you still have plenty of time to prepare for it if you're learning on Brilliance that

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