Understanding Discrete Probability Distributions
- Discrete data involves distinct values with probabilities summing to 1.
- The sum of all probabilities in a discrete distribution equals 1.
- Expected value (E[X]) is calculated as the sum of each value multiplied by its probability.
- An expected value of zero indicates a fair game.
Example 1: Machine Breakdown Probability Distribution
- Let B represent the number of machine breakdowns per day.
- Given probabilities: 0.7 (0 breakdowns), 0.2 (1 breakdown), 0.08 (2 breakdowns), and x (3 breakdowns).
- Using the summation rule: 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.08 + x = 1, solving for x gives 0.02.
- Expected value calculation:
- E[B] = 00.7 + 10.2 + 20.08 + 30.02 = 0.42
- Probability calculations:
- P(B > 1) = P(B=2) + P(B=3) = 0.08 + 0.02 = 0.1
- P(B ≤ 1) = P(B=0) + P(B=1) = 0.7 + 0.2 = 0.9
Example 2: Dice Game Probability Distribution
- Two dice are rolled; the score is the greater number shown.
- If both dice show the same number, the score equals that number.
- Total possible outcomes: 36.
- Probability distribution is constructed by counting occurrences of each score from 1 to 6.
- Probabilities for each score are calculated by dividing the count by 36.
Key Probability Calculations
- Probability of scoring at least 3:
- P(T ≥ 3) = sum of probabilities for scores 3, 4, 5, and 6 = 32/36 = 8/9
- Conditional probability of scoring 6 given at least 3:
- P(T=6 | T≥3) = P(T=6) / P(T≥3) = (11/36) / (32/36) = 11/32
Expected Score Calculation
- Expected value of the score:
- E[T] = (11/36) + (23/36) + (35/36) + (47/36) + (59/36) + (611/36) = 161/36 ≈ 4.47
Summary
This review provides a clear methodology for:
- Setting up and solving probability distributions for discrete random variables.
- Calculating expected values to understand average outcomes.
- Using conditional probability formulas to find probabilities under given conditions.
- Applying these concepts to real-world examples like machine breakdowns and dice games.
Understanding these principles is essential for analyzing discrete random variables and making informed decisions based on probability.
For further reading, you may find these resources helpful:
this video is a review for this Creator distribution in discrete distribution the data is a
discrete the summation of the probability equals what
all the probabilities will be God from the table expected a value e of x equals summation
of x times the probability of a random or variable equals X when the expected value equals zero
means the gamma is fair for example let be the number of breakdowns of machine B on any given day the
probability distribution for B can be modeled by the following table find Acts
according to summation of probability equals what
we can set up 0.7 plus 0.2 Plus 0.08 plus x equals 1.
then x equals 0.02 for p find the expected value e of B
equals zero times 0.7 plus 1 times 0.2
plus 2 times 0.08 plus 3 times 0.02 equals 0.42
let's go to say probability of 4 B greater than what
that equals probability of a b equals 2 plus probability of a b
equals three so we have what 0.08 plus 0.02
equals 0.1 for d find the probability of B less than or
equal to 1. which means the probability of B equals zero plus probability of a b
equals what equals 0.7 plus 0.2
equals 0.9 let's go to question three a game is played where two unbox the
dice are rolled another score in the game is the greater of the two numbers shown if the two numbers are the same
then the score in the game is the number shown on one of the dice a diagram showing the possible outcomes
is given below let T be the random variable the score in a game complete the table to show the
probability distribution of t the score in the game is the greater of the two numbers shown
first the dice second dice we will write down all the
score in this diagram one two
three 4 4 5 6.
because in this diagonal we have the same score on both dice
two three four five six
this is a two three four five six four five six
this is a three three four four four five six
five five five five six this is the all six
now all together is a 36. we have only one one over thirty six
we have all one two three twos let's go to three
one two three four five over thirty six in this way you can figure out all the
probability for each number make sure the summation of the probability equals one you can check
let's go to B find the probability that a player scores at least three in a game we're looking for the probability
remember we use the T as the random variable in this problem so we write down probability of t
greater than equal to 3. we need to add up all these four
probability together 5 over 36 plus 7 over 36 plus 9 over 36.
plus 11 over 36 equals 32 over 36 8 over 9. let's go to say
find the probability that a player scores six given that this card at least three
promo formula booklet we find the conditional probability
formula probability of a given B equals the probability of a intersection
B over probability of a b given that they score at least three so we are looking for probability of for
t equals 6. given that t greater than or equal to 3.
equals we do know probability of T equals six intersection T greater than or equal to 3 equals probability
T equals a six so we get probability of T equals six over probability of
T greater than equal to 3. count this is a this is a b then you can use this formula to figure
out the answer probability of T equals 6 is here 11 over 36
probability of T greater than or equal to three we will use this one
because we can reduce the denominator easily final answer is 11 over 32. let's go to the find the expected score
of the game use the formula expected
value equals 1 times 1 over 36.
plus 2 times 3 over 36 plus 3 times the 5 over 36 Plus
4 times the seven over thirty six plus a 5 times 9 over 36 plus 6 times 11 over 36.
161 over 36 [Music]
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