Comprehensive Review of Discrete Probability Distributions and Expected Values

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Understanding Discrete Probability Distributions

  • Discrete data involves distinct values with probabilities summing to 1.
  • The sum of all probabilities in a discrete distribution equals 1.
  • Expected value (E[X]) is calculated as the sum of each value multiplied by its probability.
  • An expected value of zero indicates a fair game.

Example 1: Machine Breakdown Probability Distribution

  • Let B represent the number of machine breakdowns per day.
  • Given probabilities: 0.7 (0 breakdowns), 0.2 (1 breakdown), 0.08 (2 breakdowns), and x (3 breakdowns).
  • Using the summation rule: 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.08 + x = 1, solving for x gives 0.02.
  • Expected value calculation:
    • E[B] = 00.7 + 10.2 + 20.08 + 30.02 = 0.42
  • Probability calculations:
    • P(B > 1) = P(B=2) + P(B=3) = 0.08 + 0.02 = 0.1
    • P(B ≤ 1) = P(B=0) + P(B=1) = 0.7 + 0.2 = 0.9

Example 2: Dice Game Probability Distribution

  • Two dice are rolled; the score is the greater number shown.
  • If both dice show the same number, the score equals that number.
  • Total possible outcomes: 36.
  • Probability distribution is constructed by counting occurrences of each score from 1 to 6.
  • Probabilities for each score are calculated by dividing the count by 36.

Key Probability Calculations

  • Probability of scoring at least 3:
    • P(T ≥ 3) = sum of probabilities for scores 3, 4, 5, and 6 = 32/36 = 8/9
  • Conditional probability of scoring 6 given at least 3:
    • P(T=6 | T≥3) = P(T=6) / P(T≥3) = (11/36) / (32/36) = 11/32

Expected Score Calculation

  • Expected value of the score:
    • E[T] = (11/36) + (23/36) + (35/36) + (47/36) + (59/36) + (611/36) = 161/36 ≈ 4.47

Summary

This review provides a clear methodology for:

  • Setting up and solving probability distributions for discrete random variables.
  • Calculating expected values to understand average outcomes.
  • Using conditional probability formulas to find probabilities under given conditions.
  • Applying these concepts to real-world examples like machine breakdowns and dice games.

Understanding these principles is essential for analyzing discrete random variables and making informed decisions based on probability.

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