Overview of the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry
In this analysis, we explore the growing demand for lithium-ion (Li) batteries in India, driven by the increasing need for energy storage solutions due to intermittent renewable energy sources like solar and wind. The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) further amplifies this demand, as Li batteries are essential for powering these vehicles.
Key Points Discussed
- Energy Storage Requirements: The need for energy storage is rising due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources. For a deeper understanding of the energy landscape, see our summary on India's Energy Future: Projections for 2030.
- Comparison of Battery Technologies: Lead-acid batteries are now primarily used for auxiliary purposes, while Li batteries are crucial for EVs, constituting a significant portion of vehicle costs. For insights into the broader implications of battery technology, check out our Comprehensive Overview of Electrochemistry: Concepts, Applications, and Calculations.
- Market Analysis: The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Li batteries in India is discussed, with insights from companies like Amaron and Exide. The competitive landscape is also influenced by global trends, as highlighted in The Electric Vehicle Revolution: China's Strategy Shaping Mexico's Auto Landscape.
- Industry Value Chain: The video breaks down the components of Li batteries, including the role of manufacturers like Neogen and GFL in producing essential materials. Understanding the extraction processes can be further explored in our Comprehensive Overview of Oil Extraction and Refining Process in India.
- Global Market Dynamics: The dominance of countries in battery production, particularly South Korea and China, is highlighted, along with the impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act on these markets.
- Company Strategies: A comparison of Exide and Amaron's strategies in the EV and Li battery space, including their capital expenditure plans and technological collaborations.
- Risks and Opportunities: Potential risks associated with new technologies that could replace Li batteries in the future, as well as opportunities for growth in the Indian market.
FAQs
-
What are lithium-ion batteries used for?
Lithium-ion batteries are primarily used in electric vehicles, renewable energy storage, and portable electronics. -
Why is the demand for energy storage increasing?
The demand is increasing due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like solar and wind, necessitating reliable storage solutions. -
How do lithium-ion batteries compare to lead-acid batteries?
Li batteries have a higher energy density and are essential for EVs, while lead-acid batteries are mainly used for auxiliary functions in vehicles. -
What companies are leading the lithium-ion battery market in India?
Key players include Exide and Amaron, both of which are expanding their capabilities in the EV and battery technology sectors. -
What are the risks associated with lithium-ion battery technology?
Risks include potential technological advancements that could replace Li batteries and fluctuations in raw material prices. -
How does the US Inflation Reduction Act affect the battery industry?
The Act promotes South Korean manufacturers, impacting global supply chains and competitive dynamics in the battery market. -
What is the future outlook for lithium-ion batteries in India?
The future looks promising with increasing investments in technology and infrastructure, alongside a growing market for electric vehicles.
In today's Industry Analysis we'll cover (On Screen) Before we start the analysis, there's one humble admission (On Screen) Why are we doing this video? So that our knowledge of diff. sectors ↑.
When we talk of LI batteries- World's energy storage requirement is ↑. Why are energy storage requirements ↑? Intermittent- Sun may not always be out. Wind might not always blow. These days there are hybrid plants as well.
Since solar and wind are intermittent— When we talk of battery storage tech. - there's Lead Acid batteries but LI batteries' storage/cell capacity— 2nd key reason for ↑ use case for LI batteries- EV power uses LI batteries.
Lead Acid batteries are now only used for auxiliary purposes viz car infotainment system & wipers, source of power. Engine is fuelled by diesel/petrol. Whereas EV is fully fuelled by the battery. 1 key difference- Lead Acid batteries as % of vehicle cost is miniscule—
~32-33% of EV cost is dependent on the battery. We'll first discuss TAM of Li batteries in India (On Screen) These are both estimates of Amaron & Exide.
Tube Investments are introducing EV in CV. Let's breakdown Li batteries & see its parts & things involved & who supplies them in India (On Screen) Electrolyte fluid- only 2 Co. manufacturing/about to start manufacturing- Neogen & GFL.
TINCI Batteries et al in China. We're discussing the industry value chain atm. CapEx for anode is being done by HEG —
Their graphite electrode biz. is deeply cyclical but they're CapEx for anode — Anode has a use case for graphite. Whoever has expertise for graphite can CapEx for it. GFL are also working on separators.
Diff. types of Li cells (On Screen) Which countries have dominance for this? What are the parts & raw materials? (On Screen) This was for Mining. For Refining—
When we talk of LI batteries (On Screen) NMC & LFP both have diff. use cases. Their main key diff. are- (On Screen) 2Wheelers, 3Wheelers, Data centres use NMC more. NMC are also used in EV —
LFP tech. is interesting bcz — South Korean Co.'s are receiving incentives by Inflation Reduction Act of the US— Many Chinese battery manufacturing Co. have built huge capacities.
South Korea has ↑ CapEx for batteries— Posco has taken battery chemicals from a Chinese Co. Cobalt to get technical know-how. These 2-3 pointers must be understood by us.
Through Inflation Reduction Act the US is promoting South Korean manufacturers — Log9 is working on Li cells tech. It won't be too different in the Indian context.
As it's a new tech. it's difficult to presume anything. We'll discuss ahead. We'll start with Exide. It's important to compare Exide vs Amaron— (On Screen) Reason- Exide entered the Life Insurance biz—
They recently sold Excide Life Insurance — swap of Exide Life Insurance & HDFC Life. Amara Raja has > EBIT margins as replacement/after mkt have ↑ margins. It may be the case — I'm not claiming it. This is from their presentation.
Speaking of Lead Acid battery- is there risk of Terminal Value in the biz.? Primary reason for continued growth rates - Auxiliary Uses- (On Screen) Amaron stated in their Concall - the biz. can grow to high single digits & low double digits.
We have seen in last 2yrs that India's auto cycle turned around & growth in Lead Acid battery. More use cases of Lead Acid battery (On Screen) We'll move to Exide & Amaron's EV/ Li plans.
We'll start with Exide as they're planning Rs.4000 Cr CapEx & it's 1st phase will go live in Bangalore. Exide has tied up technically with China's largest 6 Battery Co. (On Screen) If we see Exide wrt Amaron's 2GW Phase 1 capacity.
Nexcharge is Pvt. Ltd. under NCNT & merging with Exide Public Ltd. They currently don't have Li cells capacity which are imported. They only work in battery packaging. Exide Energy has a tie up with Svolt for Rs.4000 Cr CapEx —
We'll see Exide's case study- whether they have first mover advantage or not, whether technology changes - which we'll cover under Risks. As a viewer you must check RoE & RoCE of Battery makers over the world to get an idea for Exide's case. Why do Exide claim First Mover advantage? (On Screen)
Homologation- approval from authorities. If you've installed Li battery in a car then the car manufacturer & you will have to take safety approval— Lead Acid battery can be purchased from anyone locally but importing Li batteries takes time. Amra Raja is a Mkt. leader in many segments for batteries. (On Screen)
These 2 have most Mkt. share. One thing you must check for Amaron (On Screen) CapEx has ↑ a lot in last few years—
The margins which have ↓ atm can have these thesis for anyone studying the Co. - (On Screen) Reason- Lead prices ↑ Amra Raja's CapEx plans - Rs. 3-400 Cr for Lead recycling plant in TN.
Rs. 500 Cr for New Energy vertical for Li in FY25. Total Capacity for Amra Raja (On Screen) Further taking Amaron & Amra Raja & how their plans differ from Exide - they're not collaborating for tech. tie ups —
They're CapEx for Greenfield & it's a subsidiary project — Amalgamation of promoter held Pvt. entities. 1. Mangal Ind. - Battery packs. 2 Amra Raja Power Systems Ltd. (On Screen) You can adjust the same & take out the enterprise value.
Exide- 11.7: Trading on avg. We'll discuss Risk factors for both Co. (On Screen) So far no one else has acquired land.
There's risk of new technology in 5-10-15yrs which can replace Li batteries. I stated opportunities prev. - Amaron has chances of reversion to mean—
Heads up!
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