Fact Check: Expert Analysis on Trump's Ukraine Oil Refinery Claims and Energy War

specializing in global oil markets, energy security, and the geopolitical impact of international conflicts. He

was also a guest speaker at that Warsaw Security Forum and joins us from there. Thanks very much for being with us. So,

let me ask you first off, uh President Trump blaming Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, but

isn't this more down to the war in Iran that he started and his attempts to address the public anger back in the US

over the high gas prices at the pump so close to those midterm elections that are coming up.

>> There's a lot in your question. So, let me take it pieces. Clearly, [snorts] this has something to

do with the upcoming elections, the high cost of diesel and gas and so forth. After being one of his main campaign

promises from way back, this is an issue for him. He wants to get it down. He's got to know. He's just got to ask the

Secretary of Energy Chris Ryder or anybody else in his cabinet. This is not going to bring

diesel prices down before the elections. So, insofar as this said, it's theater. Now, on the other hand, as you say,

look, the attacks on Russian refineries, the truth of the matter is, you know,

Ukraine tried this over a year ago and it went fairly well in the Biden administration. And a year ago August,

it was the American CIA and intelligence in Ukraine that proposed to the Ukrainians

the campaign and they okayed it with Trump. And Trump supported the campaign. And the campaign has been very

successful in making it difficult for the Russians to wage the war and pay for their war. Now, the main problem with

the diesel, you're right, is that Hormuz is not fully backed up to speed. It's coming back up to speed. More diesel is

coming out. The price is coming down. So, it is this to do with that, but there's something else There's other

things going on, too. Uh a larger game that Trump is playing, I I

>> So, Ukraine has has argued that the Russian oil facilities are essential to weakening Moscow's ability to finance

his war this war as you've been saying. How effective has this strategy been and could Trump's pressure to hold these

attacks undermine Ukraine's position? >> Of course it could undermine Ukraine's position. You know this these can put a

lot of nasty pressure on and you remember his first administration he was very you know very nasty when it was had

to do with elections with Biden. So we don't know how far he'll go. But

to shut down diesel and gasoline in Russia like they've been doing hitting so many refineries so effectively

makes it very difficult for Russia to have enough of these things for its own population. So the population feels

the lines at the gas station. The farmers see that there's not enough diesel that

Putin's not in control like he says. They don't have enough diesel for their for their farms and prices are high and

diesel is one of the main things that wars eat up. So he needs it for the front Mr. Putin does.

So it's very effective. But more so than that as they develop this campaign against the refineries and get heavier

weapons that they can hit ports they can stop all exports from Russia and Russia in the winter time

literally the pipelines would back up to West Siberia. Those old fields would freeze up. They could destroy Russia as

a Petro state which is exactly what the US Senate and House wanted to do with this bill that was recently passed the

Lindsey Graham bill bone breaking sanctions. Suddenly Trump goes against this and

we're trying to guess what his game is. It's clearly to do with elections but there's other things. He threatened many

other things over the last month or two starting from September. He was telling the Europeans we just found out that

when he was at the General Assembly, he was telling the other Europeans they had to give back Russia's money that's in

that they frozen in Europe, which is amazing, you know, and he's saying I'll restart the North Stream 1 and 2

pipeline and fix it. And the Americans will buy it and help Putin. All these things that he tried months ago when he

first came in power enticements, economic enticements to Putin that didn't work. Everybody in his

cabinet knows it didn't work. That's why they changed their strategy and inflicted pain on him. So why is he

going back to this? What's his game? It's It seems quite desperate. >> You're attending the Warsaw Security

Forum there where European leaders have expressed concerns about Washington's changing approach to Russia. What are

you hearing from people there that you've spoken to perhaps about the implications for European energy

security and the wider Western strategy towards Ukraine? >> Well, let me just say I think the

situation in Europe is more mature and there's a number of them There's a number of people from the

Senate and the head of the Senate Armed Forces Committee is here, who's a Republican,

and and Democratic also. And it's what Trump did this sort of thing against Zelenskyy year, 2 years, 3

years ago, there was much more emotionalism, I would say, outburst. It's much more sober now, much more

analytical. And one thing people are saying, which I've said also I think is true,

his plan won't work. The Russians would have to have weeks without being hit by the Ukrainians, repair the refineries,

take weeks to build up diesel, and start exporting it. This well after the American elections. So it can't be about

that and Trump knows this. So the Ukrainians also will not stop

hitting these refineries if Russia doesn't stop hitting their power plants. They want They agreed Trump pressured

them and they said, "Fine." Zelenskyy said, "Fine. We'll have an energy truce." But today, Lavrov

4 or 5 hours ago was on the news and said, "The Ukrainians don't deserve to have a truce.

We'll take the diesel We'll take the diesel deal, but we're not going to stop hitting their stuff." Well, that's not

going to work. Ukrainians will keep hitting their refineries. So, it's it's simply something that's not going to

work. And the Americans that were here from the Congress and local, you know,

officials are much more sober about this that this is unseemly what Trump is doing, perhaps illegal, and it's just

not going to work and we're we're not going to go along with it. >> Good to talk to you. Thomas O'Donnell

joining us there from Warsaw. Thanks for your perspective. >> Thank you.