Understanding the Developmental State: Economic Growth and Political Economy Insights
Introduction to the Developmental State
- The developmental state concept emerged from studying rapid growth in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and to some extent Hong Kong and Singapore.
- It challenges neoclassical institutionalism by emphasizing state-market coordination over just property rights and rule of law.
- The literature initially focused on historical cases from the 1950s-60s but regained relevance after the global financial crisis and concerns about the middle-income trap.
Historical and Intellectual Origins
- The developmental state draws on a heterodox tradition, including Alexander Hamilton's 18th-century report advocating protectionism and state support for industrialization.
- Gerschenkron's theory emphasized the need for institutional capabilities, especially banking and state intervention, for latecomer countries to absorb technology and grow.
- Post-war economists like Singer, Prebisch, Rosenstein-Rodan, and others contributed to ideas about import substitution and planning.
- Kaname Akamatsu introduced the "flying geese" model, highlighting export-oriented growth and regional industrial upgrading led by Japan.
Economic Foundations: Coordination Problems
- Development is seen as a series of coordination problems or market failures requiring joint action among political economy actors.
- The state’s role is to coordinate and facilitate joint learning rather than omnisciently picking winners.
- Key coordination challenges include:
- Transition from agriculture to modern sectors requiring simultaneous investments.
- Financial sector inadequacies needing development banking and intervention.
- Technology acquisition and learning under uncertainty and asymmetric information.
- Dani Rodrik’s model illustrates collective action problems where individual investors hesitate unless others invest simultaneously.
- Case studies from Japan and Taiwan show how governments coordinated industries and financial sectors to overcome these challenges.
Political Foundations and Institutional Capacity
- Unlike neoclassical views focusing on property rights and rule of law, developmental states often operated under authoritarian regimes with significant state discretion.
- Bureaucratic incentives and internal coherence were crucial for effective policy implementation (e.g., Japan’s MITI).
- The state-business relationship was often arm’s length or adversarial, with governments disciplining private firms through performance monitoring and export requirements.
- Labor was politically repressed but supported through phased investments in education and social policies, forming a "productivist welfare state."
Contemporary Relevance and Challenges
- Global changes like trade liberalization, financial crises, and international production networks have constrained traditional industrial policy space.
- The middle-income trap highlights the difficulty many countries face in transitioning to high-income status. For more insights on this topic, see Why India Struggles to Compete with China's Economic Growth.
- The developmental state literature resurfaces to address how state capacity and coordination can help countries upgrade within global value chains. For a deeper understanding of the global economy, refer to Understanding the Global Economy: Insights from Leading Economists.
- Modern applications may focus on industry or regional levels rather than national closed economies.
Conclusion
- The developmental state offers a valuable framework for understanding long-run growth beyond liberalization alone.
- It emphasizes the importance of state capacity, coordination, and political institutions tailored to local contexts. For further exploration of state roles, check out Understanding State Roles in Historical and Global Contexts.
- While the original East Asian model may not be replicable wholesale, its principles remain relevant for contemporary development challenges.
[Applause] so my first question is what are you all doing here I don't know why you're why
you're here but that's it's great to see to see so many faces so first of all let me say that this is actually a world
premiere I've never presented this book I wrote it and now I have to figure out how to say it and and that's been
actually surprisingly challenging because this isn't actually a standard piece of empirical research where I can
say here's my hypothesis here my findings it's really almost like an intellectual history of a group of
people who are grappling with questions of late development and came to a set of somewhat similar answers to a very
particular question this wasn't a group of people who came at this with a theory I don't think it's a group of people who
were interested in why Japan Korea and Taiwan had grown extremely rapidly and to a certain extent why that model
extended also to Hong Kong Singapore in Southeast Asian cases in differing degrees so that was the that was the
local knowledge piece of this but I think the reason that this literature on the developmental state has had a
certain half-life is because it engaged some really fundamental debates about the relationship between the state and
the market and one thing that I think I added in this book is that also engaged some quite fundamental issues about
political economy and the way we think about institutions and long-run growth because the East Asian cases were in
many ways quite anomalous from the perspective of neoclassical institutionalism that emphasizes things
like property rights and and rule of law and contracting and the sort so that's a first set of preliminary marks the
second set of preliminary remarks is that this this work was really geared and looking back at things that happened
even in the 50s in Japan in the 60s and about the time that that this work was coming out the developmental state
actually was starting to diminish in scope and so this was a backward-looking literature that as it
was coming out was in a way becoming obsolete but then the global financial crisis hit and people started to become
concerned about the middle income trap and many of the ideas of this literature then resurfaced because it was
recognized that something like industrial policy and state capacity actually managed were important for for
long-run growth so that's my my kind of overview and the next thing I want to say is that you guys are very much more
snazzy with respect to your your slides and I am mine look doll compared to this but I didn't have anything to do with
this this is I should also tell you it's currently free at Cambridge University Press website so if you want to download
a PDF of this until February 14th you can do it it's a short book it's about thirty five thousand words but let me
let me just give you a brief tour of the book and then go into some more details so one of the things I did I noticed in
writing this book is that some of the ideas that motivated the people who are engaged in the debate about the
developmental state actually had this much longer heterodox origin and so I decided to add a chapter in this book
that discussed a precursors going back and reading for example Alexander Hamilton's report on manufacturers which
I'll talk about very briefly which is just an unbelievable piece of political economy if you've never had a chance to
look at it and I'll talk a little bit about some of that heterodox tradition and what they were preoccupied with and
some differences among some Asian political economists that were looking at these questions and then I'm going to
divide the rest of the talk into a discussion of some of the economic foundations of the of the developmental
state concept and then look at the politics which was the part of this debate that I was engaged in and then
about this fall and return of developmental ISM that I talked about and close with some comments on method
and let me just preview those briefly I know I'm going on with a lot of setup but you know the development economics
profession in the United States has gotten very preoccupied with the problem of causal identification and causal
identification is increasingly itself identified with experimental designs and one of the things I want to you to walk
away with is that the study of cases and local knowledge can also be associated with causal inference and it's
interesting that both the developmental state people and their detractors drew very heavily on case study work in
drawing conclusions about the causes of long-run growth and I'll point out that that was true of the neoclassical types
as well as the developmental state type so when I talk about a heterodox lineage what I mean are our economists that
generally have operated outside of what we would call a liberal or neoclassical tradition with respect to growth and
I'll talk a little bit more about what that I see that in tailing but it's interesting that a key feature of this
heterodox tradition is that the growth of late comers has to be understood in an international context because the
pattern of growth that they will move through is influenced by the fact that they're early comers that basically have
technologies from which they can benefit but they are also operating in international environments in which open
the openness in the economy has added potentially adverse effects on them and their ability to industrialize and so I
mentioned Hamilton's report on manufacturers which some of you may have seen Hamilton the musical but I mean
this guy was just brilliant this is basically a study of import substituting industrialization
in the United States I mean what Hamilton says is there's no way we can industrialize if we leave the American
market opened a British manufactured exports we need to engage in protection subsidies and the creation of the
national banking system that will permit us to support industry I mean it's really striking so there are these these
kind of precursors but I spent some time looking at one particular article which if you haven't if you're not familiar
with it I'll give you lots of reading suggestions during this lecture but if you haven't read Gerson Cron's
economic doctrine as' and historical perspective it's really an extraordinarily prescient piece because
Gershon cross version law basically makes the the set of arguments about late comers that I've talked about and
emphasizes these advantages of being able to absorb technologies but he also argues that you have to have the
institutional capabilities in the late comers to do that and he identifies banking organizations and the state
itself as crucial players in that in that process and he looks at Russia for example and says there's no way that the
private sector would be able to absorb technologies and for Russia to advance in the 19th late 19th and early 20th
centuries without the state intervening so this idea that late comers would have to draw on other organizational and
institutional resources in order to grow over the long run was a quite fundamental idea and of course in the
post-war period export pessimists and those interested in planning ended up playing a very important role in early
development debates both in the United States and and in Britain I'm thinking for example of singer and prema Shu are
critical to introducing ideas about import substitution in Latin America partly because of concerns about the
declining terms of trade and a whole series of economists many British who contributed to ideas about
planning the way that the state had to play a crucial role in pushing industrialization along you know these
names I haven't read this stuff or reread it for years Newark rosenstein-rodan who was talking about
Eastern Europe Hershman unbalanced growth and of course Nicholas Calder's observation that over the long-run the
growth growth of GDP and growth of productivity was intimately tied with getting on a path of manufacturing of
the growth of manufacturing but the development was tied to the process of industrialization but in the course of
retelling the story one of the interesting voices that came out of Asia that was quite distinctive in this
regard was a a political economist named Kaname a Komatsu who actually was writing as early as the interwar period
and subsequently published in Japanese in English a number of his findings in the post-war period particularly in a
very important article written in 1962 on this process and one of the things that's interesting about a Komatsu
compared to the export pessimists that you saw in africa latin america and south asia is that a Komatsu felt that
looking at japan that in fact developing countries could industrialize by an export-oriented growth trajectory and i
think that was quite distinctive and I don't think akka matza was doing anything more than looking at the
Japanese experience but he was responsible for this idea that many of you have heard of the kind of flying
geese model through which lead countries that is Japan would develop an industrial
and so the ahkamaat Sioux idea always had a regional political economy to it in the sense that industries were passed
down this chain of development but note it also implied that each of these countries each of these levels was
capable of kind of upgrading its capabilities and moving into sectors that were being vacated by the lead
goose which a Komatsu rightly saw for the East Asian region as being Japan and that I think is extremely consequential
because from the outset partly because of endowments the growth trajectory of the East Asian countries beginning with
Japan was very much centered on the export of manufacturers and that export of course being central to the larger
growth process or at least being perceived as part of the larger growth process and I'll talk later about why
exports have an important political consequence because they end up being a disciplining mechanism with respect to
the private sector which is also a piece of this developmental stage okay so let me talk a little bit about the economic
foundations and let me start with the big message and this is sort of me as much as as the as people writing in this
vein but in in looking back at this literature it seemed to me that a kind of common feature of people who are
working this area was to see the development process as fundamentally a set of successive coordination problems
or market failures and but I say coordination problems rather than market failures because they were seen by the
actors as requiring actual coordination among major players in the political economy for those problems to be
resolved and it's that and is on not only market failure but coordination which takes us back to a
state role and as I'll argue not necessarily in picking in winners in a very directive fashion but in organizing
processes of joint learning among the parties that permit these extra these negative externalities and coordination
problems to be resolved and and so I think one mischaracterization of the development of this developmental state
concept is that the state somehow has this omniscient capability to choose things that's not I don't think what
what it was believed was going on but that it did have the capacity to coordinate action among a variety of
market players in ways that were in line with what Justin Lin and others have thought of as dynamic comparative
advantage and that regional context I should add was important in that regard because you could look at Japan and see
what Japan was doing and you can see that there's a prospect of you moving into those activities as they're priced
out in in Japan so the context of this fight was was a revival of what you guys call neoliberal thinking I I think of it
as neoclassical thinking in the 1960s and this was led by a group of well-known economists I'm sure many of
you have heard these names Belliveau Lawson and Kruger Jagdish Bhagwati little skotowski and Scott and basically
these these development economists were looking at both positive and negative models and the negative models were
South Asia particularly for people like jugglers Bhagwati why was India growing so slowly and in Latin America somewhat
unfair because in fact lot of character had grown quite rapidly from the 30s to the
1980s when it got hit by the by the debt crises but they were also looking at individual cases in East Asia and saying
these countries succeeded essentially by liberalizing their trade and exchange rate regimes and you guys are
development people you probably wouldn't be here if you weren't you know that this key proposition that the trade
regime in the exchange rate regime are sort of crucial to long-run growth is central to neoclassical propositions and
they were very much pushing this case and they weren't really relying Arana Cleon theory because we know from
neoclassical growth theory that the what drives growth are factor inputs and it's so it's not clear why a change in your
trader exchange rate regime would generate some long-run change in your growth trajectory but people like a
suite of awesome and bagua tea made the case now anyway that those kinds of trade policy changes could affect factor
inputs across the full range and could also contribute to productivity growth whether that you think those of you are
economists whether you think those arguments are compelling or not I leave to you but but the point I want to make
here is that despite the theory it was really the cases of East Asia that allowed them to make these claims in
this forceful way and it was into that debate where a group of economists had identified liberalizing reforms as the
core of East Asia's growth experience both in Japan Korea and Taiwan that you got the dissidents stepping into the
fray and saying wait a second this picture doesn't look anything like descriptively doesn't look anything like
what you've claimed theoretically to be the case and it's also interesting just as a matter of sociology that the big
contributors to this the where we're sort of Outsiders you know Alice Anson Hajong
a Brit Robert Wade who's at LSE you know Outsiders to kind of mainstream economics and of course Chalmers Johnson
was a political scientist and this Magisterial book MIDI in the Japanese miracle which I just can't recommend
enough this is this is a masterpiece of social science in my view and it's just a stunning work which traces how the
bureaucracy in Japan beginning in the late 20s developed and developed the capabilities and learned how to respond
to the crises that Japan was facing through the articulation and implementation of a complex set of
industrial policies and Johnson is not an economist he focuses mainly on the bureaucracy but it was just a parent to
him that the rapid growth in the post-war period was a function of this prior institutional and bureaucratic
development within Japan which permitted this highly centralized entity many delegated power by the diet to undertake
a set of coordination efforts that resulted in rapid growth through increasing investment and efficiency and
and that it was into that space that others myself included jumped particularly on the economic side these
three big books by Alice Hampton Asia's next Asia's next giant I think it's called about Korea Robert Wade governing
the market and hedging Chong's the political economy of Industrial Policy and you know macro was a part of this
actually because part of the argument was that these strong states were capable of mobilizing resources in a way
that weaker governments weren't so it comported with what Paul Krugman others later did emphasizing the
accumulation part of the story but the real action was in the allocation of resources and the solution to these
coordination problems and this theme of market failure is just a consistent theme across all all three of these
books and others that enter these from this fray which by the way included dissidents within the mainstream like
Joe Stiglitz who is making arguments about the way that the financial sectors in East Asia even though they had
significant intervention were nonetheless long-run efficiency enhanced so this section of the book I'll skip
this um this section of the book just goes through what three of these distinctive coordination problems are
and now I'm not gonna walk through all of them in detail if you're interested you can take a look but they're
basically have to do with coordination failures that have to do with the transition between the agriculture of
the modern sector coordination failures with respect to the financial sector and coordination failures that have to do
with the acquisition of technology where they're just a myriad of problems of asymmetric information between buyers
and sellers and you know under firms and governments in the developing countries because of the difficulties of
appropriating the returns to those investments so Dani Rodrik has a great I gather he was here sometime in the last
year he's just a super smart guy um he has I think one of the best papers on this in 1995 he outlines this little
tree ma you know very simple model of an economy of the traditional and modern sector the modern sector has higher
rates of return in equilibrium but it relies on a whole series of capital and intermediate goods and skilled labor and
technology and unless you've got those input it's not going to function at this
higher equilibrium level and you fall back into a kind of low equilibrium growth path and the only way to overcome
that in Am stands famous expressions which of course drove mainstream economists crazy is that you needed to
get prices wrong because if prices were allowed to clear at prevailing market rates than these fundamental problems of
coordination in the modern sector would go unresolved and this is one place where I want to read just a little bit
from Danny's treatment of this he says from the perspective of an individual investor will not pay to invest in the
modern sector unless others are doing so as well there's a classic collective action problem in other words I'll
invest but not if no one else is investing so the question is how you coordinate right the profitability of
the modern sector depends on the simultaneous presence of the specialized inputs but the profitability of
producing these inputs in turn depends on the presence of demand from a pre-existing modern sector catch-22
right and so the only way you can get around those kinds of bottlenecks is to coordinate these production and
investment decisions in a way that allows the modern sector to to take off another way of putting this leaving this
to the market it won't get done that's and then I just provide some examples of this there's some excellent studies in
both English and Japanese I'm not pretending to read Japanese but on the council for industrial rationalization
in Japan which was formed in 1949 I mean there's deep historical work on this and if you look at that it is it's just out
of the textbook of this idea of there being coordination problems its purchasers of steel saying Steel's too
expensive if you want me to export machinery then you've got to figure out how to lower the prices of steel inputs
because we're not going to be competitive and many essentially orchestrating investments loans
coordination among buyers and sellers in order to get that virtuous cycle going which is which we all know contributed
to this very high growth period in Japan from the mid-50s and this was true in the export sector as well there we have
great Studies on Taiwan on exactly how the shift towards the external market took place there a lot of coordination
issues between different segments of the industry with a you know apparently competing interest and the government
playing roles and coordinating those sectors to maximize the flavor the coordination and the financial sector is
a similar problem of course they're those and I'm sure their development economists among you who see you know
would follow the arguments that liberalization of the financial sector and at this stage I mean nothing more
than setting you know deposit rates adequately to encourage financial intermediation but you know Amsden and
and Stiglitz come along and point out that these financial systems are just totally inadequate to the task of of
providing development finance and Amsden defended development banking exactly stepping into that that breach
but Stiglitz comes along and makes a you know a similarly set of very subtle arguments about the way that reducing
competition limiting deposit rates reverse spreads were we're you know lending rates are below deposit rates
with those subsidies being covered by the government all can contribute to eliciting investment from private
sectors that are otherwise gonna be cautious so you know again this similar kind of mechanism of coordination
playing a role in overcoming these these coordination problems and I think particularly for for Allison's Dhin who
unfortunately died in the last couple of years are quite young at least from someone my age you know the the issues
of Technology and learning were really fundamental here because developing countries are in a position of having to
acquire technologies which they don't understand and then you're having to pay for it and you don't know what you're
paying for because you don't know until you purchase it what it is that you've purchased they're subject to highly
variable path-dependent learning processes which are incredibly difficult to foresee and we all know
that investment in R&D in the developing world is less than it would actively be and so intervention and technology
markets trying to maximize returns to the negotiations that are taking place between domestic purchasers of
technology and foreign sellers restricting foreign direct investment if needed to prevent the exploitation of
those of those rents that are generated by intellectual property protections if all of that was a piece of this growth
story you know if we can approach if we can expropriate the technologies in effect you know all the better for the
developing country's Amsden looked at this in the context of the Korean groups and said
that the groups themselves were the sort of institutions were a lot of this took place but people like Peter Evans and
studies of Singapore talked about how this took place through industrial policy in key industries so you know I
think there's a just spells out in general terms you know the logic the economic logic of this developmental
state thinking and note this isn't about a single mom it's not like the developmental state was an off-the-shelf
model it was more than an identified a set of tasks as Richard doner puts it which states as policy as the locus of
policymaking phase and not only tasks but tasks that involve coordination among actors in order to resolve and so
the state role again is not simply choosing industries but trying to elicit information from the actors themselves
that would permit these problems to be resolved so that's the economic part of this now at the same time and this is
self referential there are a handful of us who are mostly political scientists who are looking at these questions and
asking looking at these problems and asking somewhat different question which is how is it politically that these
countries were capable of pursuing these policies which we know we know and I buy into this are vulnerable to rent seeking
and distortion I mean and I in rereading trebush I was really surprised to see he was
completely aware of this problem he knew that protection ran renze risks and the question of how much protection
for how long how you condition it on performance was something that he is completely aware who's not naive but it
does raise this question of what's the political foundation of this and if there's one small contribution to this
book besides kind of summarizing literature the one brainstorm I had is and realized
that the way that the people working in this tradition thought about political institutions was fundamentally different
than that in the dominant neoclassical institutional paradigm which focuses on property rights contracting rights rule
of law and ultimately through people like berry wine gas in his work on the on the British innovations with respect
to the Parliament checks on executive power and discretion and those of us who look at me Stasia looked at the East
Asian cases and said you've got to be kidding these are countries that are characterized by rule of law there are
Thorat Aryan regimes how can you have rule of law and executive checks when you're ruled by the KMT and puchen he or
even frankly by the LDP as a dominant party over 50 years of Japan's post-war and so the question of of what the
institutional foundations of these things were they just didn't seem to fit the dominant model that if you get
property rights right everything will follow I mean these were systems that in which governments exercised a tremendous
amount of discretion over property rights and so there are basically two kind of approaches that grew out of this
the one which we ovarian s'en was to look at how bureaucracies were incentivized internally in ways that
contributed to the coherence of the making of public policy and so this was really in a way a very micro store
because most of the chapters in Johnson's book are just taken up with these incredible narrative of how MIDI
evolved and who how they train their bureaucrats and who occupied which position and their education and exactly
how the the chain of promotion within the bureaucracy worked in such a way that incentives within the bureaucracy
were very highly focused on doing the right thing not selling office at the other extreme right not corruption and
then the other line of thinking was to start considering what the social foundations of these developmental
states were what were the coalition's in broad terms that that that supported them and in both of those areas there
were some some combinations that were sort of not what we typically expect with respect to both business and labor
and I'll come back to the both of those so I think I've outlined some of the the issues already about the this idea of
the insulation of the bureaucracy incentivizing the bureaucracy creating state capacity investing in resources
this is the kind of thing that Sam is interested in it's one of the reasons I wanted to come up here to talk to to you
guys about you know this whole question of state capacity which is a again a different way of thinking about
institutions then a focus on on checks on property rights I mean that's the Doug North conception of institutions
that's not what these people were talking about they don't want to know if the state is protecting property rights
they want to know is the state capable of delivering on whatever policy commitments it makes that's a different
question and one that you know requires quite different answers you know this isn't about rule of law it's about
getting things done and so you know that raised a big debate about whether authoritarianism played some role in
this I was involved in that debate we can come back to that but I think the point here really is you know that this
issue of how you construct bureaucracies that are you know responsive and so forth has already been made and I won't
go go over it but it really again you know to repeat because I think this is so important it's a conception of
institutions in which capacity figures centrally in what you're trying to accomplish in the process I mean who
thinks of economic reform is building capacity that's not a real liberal conception right it's like you know we
want to reduce capacity and discretion and so this is a very you know kind of contrarian thing now just say a few
words about business and labor because because idea that bowling were obviously right-wing governments two of the three
were authoritarian you know anti-communist repressive of Labor and so you would naturally think that these
were governments that essentially were in bed with the local private sector and what's interesting there is a kind of
arm's length or even hostile relationship between the government and the local private sector and the local
private sector is has to be disciplined and controlled was actually central to each of their
political stories so let me just run through a few so Parchin he comes to power in 1963-64 he immediately
virtually all the leaders of the major Korean on corruption charges all over he
basically just puts him in jail and says I'll let you out of jail as long as you promise to invest in a set of plans
which the military government you know me is going to put on the table and what do
you think they said yeah we're definitely but this is not your NC I mean this is this is an extremely strong
government that that is exercising control over the private sector and use the financial system as those of you
study Taiwan know that the Taiwanese government that is the ROC government was made up almost entirely initially of
mainlanders occupying Taiwan and they're dealing with the private sector of Taiwanese now this is not a close
relationship and aside a British example in Hong Kong you had a colonial government run by the British though it
was totally committed to less affair and uninterested in providing any support whatsoever local private you wanna make
money and I could replicate that with with Singapore Lee Kuan Yew hated the local Chinese private sector I mean he
thought they were backward and so on and went with multinationals is a way of disciplining them so the political
relationship between the private sector and the state in these cases was much more complicated than we typically think
and Alice Amsden talked specifically about the importance of the government disciplining the private sector as a
component of a successful development I said I wouldn't read any more but this is just so great you know this is
classic Alice as their second book big book 2001 book on the rise of the rest she says
control mechanism is a set of institution that imposes discipline on economic behavior it doesn't sound
anything like a neoclassical treatment disciplining economic behavior the control mechanisms of the rest evolved
around the principle of reciprocity subsidies were allocated to make in manufacturing profitable but did not
become giveaways recipients of subsidies were subjected to monitor monitor Bowl performance standards that were
redistributed in nature and results-oriented it's a stick alright you want finance
you know behave yourself and so the idea that the private sector needed to be checked was crucial and incidentally
exports I think the focus on export performance was a part of that disciplining mechanism because it
provided a way to effectively assess the extent to which firms were moving towards the efficiency frontier if you
can't export then don't come to us for us right that's the test and so again the business government relationship was
was sort of fraud and then I'll just say a brief thing about labor subordination because you know everyone recognizes
that this is a piece of the East Asian story I mean that labor was actively repressed in both Korea and Taiwan early
incorporated in somewhat different ways those of you are interested in unions there's some different there's some
nuances and in the way that labor was controlled in those two countries as well as Japan but what's interesting is
at the same time if you look at the path of the East Asian welfare state this idea of a productivist welfare state you
see that early in the development process high investment in primary education then secondary education then
tertiary education this sort of sequence and so you didn't get pre premature investment and tertiary education and
you also had this quite substantial foundation of primary education and literacy prior
to the takeoff right so I mean raises these just you know what all of us I think see is you
know now this is Mother's Milk but you know this idea that social policy with respect to health and education is a
prerequisite for success with respect to industrialization and exports right if wage costs were the driver of foreign
direct investment money would be flowing into Mauritania it's not right and so this whole idea that you know this sort
of strange combination of a repressive stance towards labor politically and then at the same time investment in
human capital that's quite phased is I think a kind of interesting and complex feature of these of these countries okay
so let me let me move ahead I think I've made these points and just talk very briefly about where this all goes and
then wrap up how am i doing in terms of time five minutes yeah that's good so so just as all this work is coming out the
world starts to change trade policy pressures the Asian financial crisis international production networks all of
those appear to reduce the space for conduct of Industrial Policy and I think there was a feeling well maybe you know
this East Asian experience was just a kind of historical blip you know as a result of some permissive geo strategic
and economic conditions but then you have this very influential paper that I'm sure many of you know Gil and Karras
where he's working homey Karras working in the bank he's out talking to people in East Asia and and as 2006 and you're
talking to middle income countries and he's saying well you know you should just keep doing this you know export-led
growth thing based on you know relatively low wages and they're saying this makes no sense where middle income
countries you know and so this whole idea of there being a middle income trap where a relatively small number of
countries have managed to escape from middle-income status you know only thirteen from 1960 to 2008
I think many of you have seen diagrams like this you know which compares income per capita in 1960 with that in nineteen
relative GDP per capita that is your country versus the United States in 1960 and 1980 and the the neoliberal story is
supposed to be about income convergence the poorer you are the more quickly you're going to converge well no you
know look at these countries that are stuck set aside the low income trap issues you know the few number of
countries that sort of escape right and many of them are in East Asia and the European periphery and so what that
brings back is this whole question of how do you put together you know I'm sorry I'm skipping around here I want to
finish what role does technology play in all of this how do you get technology working for development and diffused
what skills are appropriate for middle-income countries you're not just gonna do primary education anymore if
you want to participate in GP ends you need skilled workers you know how do you solve these dilemmas and clearly those
are all coordination problems and then unfortunately rushing a little bit the whole political question of what how you
put together coalition's in support of this so I'm just gonna comment here on this and then I'll wrap up I'm sorry for
running out on Sam first time but you know the the idea here I think that comes out of this literature and the
reason it's revived is not because anyone thinks that in 2019 someone can look at Korea and Taiwan and Japan and
say okay we're gonna do that again you know that's not that's not the issue the question is whether this focus on you
know particular types of institution the building of state capacity and particular coordination problems in the
real and and financial sectors whether that way of thinking about the development process isn't as productive
as thinking about turning the dials of reform you know the standard model and I'm not saying there isn't returned to
liberalisation I'm actually a supporter have you know cautious liberalisation but is that the only way to think about
these processes and I think that the reason this literature has come back is because it's it's posed those questions
and now maybe the issue is not doing at the national level this isn't you know we can't do closed economy industrial
policy anymore but can we do that at the industry level can we do that the regional level you know can we upgrade
within global production networks by bringing these kind of conceptions of coordination and state capacity to bear
on those problems and I think that's what's kept us this traditional line okay I ran on I'm sorry
[Applause]
Heads up!
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