Understanding Bitcoin Monthly Pivots: Trends, Ranges, and Missed Hits

all right so um Carl thanks for your patience sorry it was uh you know about two three hours before I could get back

to you here um I am training to try to run 36 miles this month uh I know that sounds absolutely ridiculous but uh

that's what we're doing so um you made a comment in the classroom so anyone that's watching this back

please go to the classroom kl's comment was you just mentioned in the live stream that there's been 62 iterations

of the monthly pivots and that we've hit 48 is there any relevance to if they hit in a period of range bound activity

versus when price is trending um this is something that I have addressed before however um you know it's usually

randomly inside of a live stream so it's a very good question um so not just a good question a good observation I

imagine Carl has already kind of um taken note of of that so I actually went through and calculated all the pivots

going back on the monthly time scale uh in bitcoin's history on the BLX um there's quite a few of them

instead of missing uh well I guess technically there's 63 iterations as of today and we've now hit um 49 out of 63

because we missed last month um you've missed was that 5 10 15 20 39 pivots out of bitcoin's entire

history and that goes uh again we're talking the BLX so we are talking quite a few pivots and I don't

it's not 200 for sure but um that'll take us all the way back there right so we go back to here so you know out of

all of bitcoin's history right and I'm utilizing all of bitcoin's history because you asked about tra trending and

um Range bound markets which you know on byit we certainly have that uh data available to to us for the last 63

months but uh on BLX we have quite a bit more so um what you want to do with 39 misses right seems like a lot actually

the criteria for that or the average hit rate of that is very very much so the same as

76% give or take I think was what it was it was off by like 2% so you're right around 75% of the

time so what you would want to do if I was a person collecting statistics on this and utilizing it um in one way or

another you know what would I want to know well we just missed a pivot okay so I know that we missed 39 pivots in all

of bitcoin's history what do I do with that information after that um how many times

did we miss two pivots I guess would be the next question um 11 times so 11 out of 39 times of a single Miss pivot we

missed two in a row we didn't hit the next one to go further with that you have

missed three pivots twice in a row uh I don't think that bybit actually portrays that when I when I have that set up for

bybit we've never missed three in a row um that's why we had this trade particularly right here at the bottom if

you guys recall right here this this is a really nice setup um we had missed one two and then we were looking for this

like $23,000 level um in the theory behind that is we' never miss three in a row you have Miss three in a row on the

BLX if we go back far enough but that's only happened twice and so if we've missed 39 pivots in a

row um or 39 pivots uh totally in terms of the monthly time frame and only twice we've missed

three what what can we glean from that what our statistics on winning a trade start to become more and more um

probable if we're trading in the opposite directions you know what would be more useful to do is determine you

know when are we trending so trending right we're trending to the downside pretty hard we are starting at

4,880 can't quite meet the average so obviously this was a Mis pivot we missed one here before finding a local bottom

um so what was this price doing trending you are correct trending price action again right here 69k top missed missed

local bottom right so you you would be very very much so within your right to assume that trending price action such

as this or not trending but um Range bound price action such as this where this was trending missed it now you've

got range bound you're hitting all of them now what are we doing trending we've missed two in a row of course we

hit the third one we've missed one here and uh this this doesn't show it because the BLX doesn't update daily but you

know we've hit today's um pivot so yes during times of rangeb price action you will certainly hit the

pivot um it is also good to know if I've missed you know in this case I went the extra mile and we have

all 30 you know all what is it like 12 13 years of bitcoin's History we have 39 Miss pivots how many times have we

missed two in a row it's only 11 out of that 39 uh meaning that you know out of The 100 plus pivots really not a very

good statistical likelihood that we're going to miss the second one unless we're going to continue trending very

hard to the upside uh which we've already kind of done we've already trended very very hard to the upside so

you know as you've said this is decent information to have you know what would be decent to know

which I don't think actually may or may not give you a an edge but when you're looking at something like this right so

another instance of trending out of um a range right so you have a range range range miss one miss two back to it but

what do you notice about these pivots is that they're very very spread out um and that's a useful thing to know when is

price trending well let's look at the monthly pivots these are 25% apart this one right here is 50% apart

you know we could start really building statistics on you know How likely is price to come back to a pivot based on

how far apart they've been um that's a little more tedious and the spreadsheet right here has to become a little bit

more in depth and you know that's why when you guys are asking for these videos on pivots you're not asking for

them I'm telling you about them uh the deeper you go into the rabbit hole the more difficult it becomes because the

the utilization of data is very important so like if I just say hey the pivots hit 76% of the time or 78% of the

time you guys are going to be like well what the am I supposed to do with that you know sorry lack of a

better term um so we can really start to kind of glean on it but what do you notice right here is you have the pivots

are now clustered together and they're no longer going to the upside now doesn't mean this can't break to the

upside through expansion whatever it may be but what do you notice uh right here specifically you are rejecting the pivot

to the flip side of that you had the opposite right here right so um pivots are trending down down right you can see

this is a downward trend of pivots uh I guess the easiest way to do this would be a polyline tool something

like this right so we we go and now look right so we're trying to break out of our pivots we could

actually get rid of the candles all [Music]

together hang on a second here I think you guys will enjoy

this at that we'll get rid of all the pivots all together or the candles all together we'll just trade the pivots so

um you know what do you notice about this uh setup here right so you've got a lower averages coming

in makes a lower low we've taken the lows now the pivots are starting to what starting to Trend above each other and

now you can see that we've made a higher high okay so higher high and uh I think um this would

actually be the equivalent of hik anashi candles on the monthly to be quite up front with you you're just looking at it

on a daily time frame right and so you can now see that you've actually flipped the previous averages right into support

and off you go um as you're approaching into the 69k region right so we've now made our way up here what do you

do you start to and we're only looking at this from a pivot standpoint which is very very interesting to do we're

actually doing this together for almost the first time on the chart um lower high and now you've made a

lower low substantially lower low to be quite up front with you um however in the scheme of things and the scheme of

averages which you know we could certainly go to a higher time frame and probably Express this in a better way um

you're now you know at a higher low point so you can look at data however you want

to and determine how you're going to utilize it for me it pays more to see when pivots are

slowing down to the upside it seems like um I don't have any quantifiable data on that just yet but decent examples just

in you know retrospect to look at so if we're doing analysis we can start you know kind of saying oh okay yeah I mean

this was obvious that you know the shift of you know price was changing at that time so this is an ongoing effort and

this is the type of stuff that I am trying to bring to you guys it's just hard to put it all into one section so

for now you know we are looking at things in terms of what's the hit rate how many times have we actually missed

it and you know in this case I I have the data written down but you know how many times have we missed two how many

times have we missed three um you know what's the likelihood if we miss one what is the likelihood that we miss the

second one in a row um in our current instance it obviously wasn't very good right if we turn everything back

on the instance of us missing this one was not very strong because we'd already missed two in a row here um you know

you'd missed several in a row on the way down but you know what is it showing you after you have you know one two now

you're just going to nail all of these go into consolidation you've missed one here

you've missed one here you've missed one here so we've missed out of the last since since the breakout of of our low

here let's let's even include October so you hit October you missed November you missed December you finally got January

you got February then you Miss March right you've missed a fair amount of these if you're hitting at a plus 75%

rate in the last what is this one two three four five six now seven months you missed one two and three of those um and

that's before this so three out of six so you had a 50% hit rate over the course of a year um more than likely you

were going to hit this one here you were at a key resistance point at 73k FIB time is coming in there you know you can

kind of start looking for the monthly pivot at that point um the real question question becomes

you know does it hold this or are we going to fill this you know what you could start to look to do is see how

many of these historically don't get filled in you go to the BLX you can say uh of my monthly pivots how many of

these get filled in and don't get filled in in terms of hit rate obviously this one's never getting filled uh this one

did get filled and you know all all of these to the downside will get filled the uh

upside wise you know this one never got filled right and a lot of these are pretty good hit rates um another good

one here shockingly good so I do need to spend some time uh taking a look at specifically not downside pivots but

upside pivots um meaning that you know pivots as we're in an uptrend How likely is it to fill the ones to the downside

because we all know that when price is trending down it will probably backfill those over time it's the way Bitcoin is

designed this chart is so bullish that it's almost not worth looking at the trend to the upside in terms of um you

know does it fill the the Mist pivots from these uh interactions because if obviously you've been trending down in

these cases you miss a pivot that all these pivots have been filled look at this chart it's a straight up and down

chart so there's no point in really questioning whether or not the pivots that have been missed on the way down

down get back filled the question is what what happens when you miss a pivot uh during a trending Market do we ever

come back to it and if we do does it offer of any kind of an edge and or buying opportunity in a mean reversion

play um you know that's how you want to start quantifying this and you know these are things that they might not

give you concrete information right away but again we talked about this you have to start somewhere and then just start

molding that information into something usable and it's not always readily available um you know the first time you

look at it so you kind of have to keep modifying it um but for me on the pivots yeah during a time of consolidation

absolutely you hit the monthly pivots more it's fairly obvious um that's not to say that your question was bad it is

a good observation if that was an observation you had made um the real question is is will we come back down

and start filling in some of these pivots that we've missed right you can see this there's some that are

substantially lower um but in bitcoin's history we've talked about it you don't always fill all of these pivots right

some of these pivots will never be filled like you know this one right here well I shouldn't say never going to

be filled but the probabilities lie that it's probably never going to get filled around

$12,000 right uh same with uh well this guy did get filled um this one right here got filled actually this might

actually be the exact low it is um so it did get fill um but you get my point like there's a way to start utilizing

this information uh we're just looking for mean reversion place and this one was fairly easy again um you know if

we're looking at the monthly pivot here what did we say uh we had noticed straight away we said that you had two

real ranges here um you were trading below the point of control here right and that you were trading

below the PC D

it right here you see that so the moment you're trading below this point of control now

you're trading back in the range you're trading below this point of control here's the the move you know is this

going to give a huge trade this this week no but you can see that this was your play and you know

2.68% not a bad trade uh and now you have an opposing trade in the opposite direction you can see that you have now

swung fail right here and come all the way up to 2.43% the opposite direction so um there are trades to be had off of

these tools if you utilize them uh the way that you should so hopefully this video is not too long I've been kind of

rambling uh it was a very off the cuff I did go collect information on the monthlies for

the year just to have it uh just in case it gave us any kind of an edge which I do think it's relevant to have the

number of times that you've missed one two and three since that's the maximum so you know yeah why not um why not

collect that data and now we can look at this and say man if we if we realistically lose this you know monthly

pivot yeah we're probably heading down to some of those other targets we've talked about which was um the I believe

the previous week open things like that so all right Carl great question cheers hopefully you guys find this useful and

if there's something I can add to it in the future especially in any kind of a educational content capacity I certainly

will have a good day