Fact Check: US-Iran Ceasefire, Islamabad Talks, and Middle East Conflicts

It's been 2 days since the ceasefire was announced in West Asia and now the countdown to The next phase has begun.

The United States and Iran are preparing for high stakes talks. These negotiations are taking place in

Pakistan tomorrow. For the first time since the war began in February, both sides are set to engage in what could

shape the future of this truce. But even before these talks begin, there are clear signs of strain. US President

Donald Trump is warning Iran again. He posted again on Truth Social. Take a look at what he said. He said Thran was

not honoring the deal, particularly on the straight of Ormuz. I'm sure by now you know what that is.

In fact, Donald Trump also reiterated his claim of Iran not having a nuclear weapon. And what does Thean have to say?

They are striking a very different tone. Yesterday, Iran's new Supreme Leader Moshtabak Kame made another statement.

He did not make it in person, but it was read out by an anchor on state TV. And in that Kam said Iran will not give up

its rights. >> Everyone should know this. By the will of Allah Almighty, we will definitely

not leave the criminal aggressors who have attacked our country alone. For certain, we will seek reparations for

every damage, the price of the blood of the martyrs, and the reparations for anyone injured.

>> So even before the negotiations begin, both sides are talking past each other. And that is what makes this moment so

fragile because these talks are not routine. These are high stakes and time bound. The twoe ceasefire ends on the

22nd of April and there is very little time to find common ground which brings me to the talks. Like I said they are

set to take place in Islamabad and the city is turning into a fortress. I'll tell you about that in a bit. But who

will be attending it? The US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance. In fact, Vance has already left

Washington for these talks. Listen to what he had to say. >> I think it's going to be positive. We'll

of course see. As the president of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith,

we're certainly willing to extend the open hand. If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that

the negotiating team is not that receptive. So, we're going to try to have a positive negotiation. The

president has gave us some pretty clear guidelines, and uh we're going to see. Reports say the talks will also include

Trump's special envoy Steve Witkov and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, foreign minister

Basarak GI is expected along with the parliament speaker Muhammad Galibbah. But there is still no final confirmation

on their attendance and there is a reason for that. Galibbah has set two preconditions to meet the United States.

One, release Iran's frozen assets. Number two, ceasefire in Lebanon. I'll get to that in a minute as well. So,

there is a lot of uncertainty right now. Plus, the format of these talks still not fully clear. Some reports suggest

they could be held indirectly. Both sides are likely to sit in separate rooms and Pakistani officials will act

as the mediator. But what's on the agenda? Both sides have proposed their separate peace

plans. Iran has a 10-point peace plan. The United States has a 15-point peace plan. I've told you about that. The

negotiations will likely be centered around that. Still, what could be the main talking points? Let's go through

these. Number one, Iran's nuclear program. The United States wants Iran to scale back enrichment. It does not want

Thran to have the capability to build a weapon. But Iran sees this very differently. It calls enrichment a

non-negotiable right. I've told you about this on the show before. Number two, sanctions. Iran wants all sanctions

lifted in return for concessions. The United States has said it is ready to talk sanctions relief. Number three,

the straight of war moves. This is where the global stakes come in. Around 20% of the world's oil passes through this

route. Right now, traffic has dropped sharply. Only a small number of vessels have been able to cross since the

ceasefire was announced and energy markets are already under pressure. Iran wants control. It is reportedly

even charging a toll to pass through the strait. >> We have clearly stated this that the

strait of Hormuz after the approval of this law will decisively come under the comprehensive control of the armed

forces and other security bodies. The US on the other hand wants free flow. It does not want a toll to be

charged. In fact, Trump has even discussed military options with UK Prime Minister Kama.

>> Well, I had a discussion with President Trump last night um and um set out to him the views um of the region here.

These Gulf states are the neighbors of Iran and therefore if the ceasefire is to hold um and we hope it will it has to

involve them. They have very strong views on the straight off. Um and we spent most of the time on the call

talking about the practical plan that's going to be needed uh to get uh navigation through uh the strait.

>> And this brings me to point number four, the conflict in Lebanon. And this could likely be the top priority. Iran says

the ceasefire must include Lebanon because Hezbollah is part of its regional network. But the United States

and Israel disagree. They say the truce only covers direct US Iran hostilities and that difference is already visible

on the ground. Overnight, Israel and Hezbollah have once again exchanged fire. I'll tell you about that on the

show later as well. Thran says if Israel continues its attacks, these talks may be meaningless.

So what we are seeing right now is a ceasefire on paper but clear disagreements on ground. The United

States has its red lines. Iran has its own and Israel is operating on a separate track altogether which means

the success of these talks is far from guaranteed. For now, the process is moving forward, but the gaps remain. Can

these talks bridge those gaps, or will they end up exposing how fragile this truce really is? We'll come to know by

tomorrow, hopefully. Islamabad is shutting down for a meeting the world has its eyes on. The objective

to lock into the two-week fragile ceasefire so that it doesn't spiral into a wider war and this is a risky role

because these are talks that could easily fall apart. >> So that's what the Pakistani challenge

is right now is to sort of move from the the initial agreement stage to working out the details and the loose ends and

operationalizing the agreed upon principles. So the deal has to be engineered in a way where they walk away

with something as well. >> Let's start with Islamabad here. 10,000 security personnel have been deployed.

Let's break that down. 6,000 officers from the Islamabad Capital Police, 3,000 from the Punjab Constabillary,

a thousand traffic police to manage routes. The delegations will travel and that is before Yukand the army the

rangers and the elite military units and then there are the Margala hills the green forested hills that sit directly

above Islamabad. Army troops have been deployed there on the high ground. High ground means visibility and range.

Anyone up there can see everything below. So Pakistan is covering the hills. Now the red zone, this is the

administrative heart of Islamabad, parliament, embassies, the foreign ministry, the prime minister's office,

offices of international organizations. All of that is here. And every single entry point into the red zone is sealed.

Just one road option remains. That's the Margala road. And even that is for authorized officials only and residents

who live inside. That's it. You don't have the clearance, you don't get in. Now what about outside the red zone? The

rest of Islamabad is locked down too. Fezhole avenue. This is one of Islamabad's main roads. It's closed. And

outside all the security, there's a sense of pride building among the people in Islamabad.

Now the hotel, the Serena Hotel, this is where the delegates are staying. This is where the talks are happening. The

entire hotel has been booked out from Wednesday evening through Sunday. Remember the talks will be held on

Saturday. The White House has confirmed this. Every room in this hotel has been swept for listening devices, explosives,

anything that shouldn't be there. Then there are the motorcades. Movement is always the most dangerous moment for any

high-v value target. Pakistan knows this. So the routes from the airport to the hotel have been pre-seelected,

separate routes for each delegation. Now every delegation will have closed protection officers assigned and these

officers are banned from carrying mobile phones, wearing digital watches, no kinds of gadgets here.

In a protection operation of such kind, you eliminate every single threat, even the smallest ones. Even the fuel going

into the transport vehicles, those will be sampled and sealed. And all of this governed by one document. That's

Pakistan's blue book, specifically version 170613. This is Pakistan's classified VVIP protection manual. It

operates on a three-layer system. The inner layer is the isolation zone, the most restricted space of all. Only

vetted personal bodyguards and personal staff get in. Then there's the middle layer. This will include authorized

officials, invited guests, cleared in advance. The outer layer is managed by local police controlling the public,

managing the traffic. Interior Minister Mosi Nakwi has confirmed this plan. He has signed off on it. So getting the

ceasefire done isn't Islamabad's biggest challenge. It's keeping delegations safe. And we get why. For decades,

Pakistan has been the biggest exporter of terrorism across the region. They've harbored terrorists. They have trained

them. They have sent them across the border. And now the chickens have come home to roost with rise in terror

incidents in the country. In fact, Pakistan is the most terroraffected country in the world. And they only have

themselves to blame. So, thus, they have to secure Islamabad. Well, this is their one chance to maybe

redeem their global standing, and they're making sure it isn't derailed by their past, or should I say present.

Mangled bodies, hospitals overrun, families searching for their loved ones. This is what Beirut looks like. The

Lebanese people are still reeling from one of the deadliest days in its recent history.

160 bombs in 10 minutes. That was the scale of Israel strikes on Wednesday. More than 300 people were killed and

even now, two days later, the aftermath is still unfolding. Rescuers are continuing to pull bodies from under the

rubble. Hospitals are still waiting for remains to be identified. And it's not just Beirut. The entire country is on

edge. Now, Lebanon is caught in a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah. And in

war, rockets and missiles do not discriminate. So, ordinary Lebanese civilians are paying the price.

Hospitals in Lebanon are overwhelmed. Reports say that the injured are being rushed straight into emergency rooms.

The dead are being taken to the morgs where exhausted medics are handling body bag after body bag for relatives to

identify before burial. Millions caught in a war they did not start now asking what did we do wrong.

>> Southerners won't leave their land. This is their land. No one is allowed to occupy it. They must stop the war and

leave. What are going to negotiate? We will negotiate if they leave our land, stop the attacks and get guarantees from

the government. >> Now, today, Israeli air strikes hit multiple areas in the south, including

Benjel, which is considered a symbolic stronghold of Hezbollah. But this is not a one-sided conflict. Hezbollah has also

responded. Rockets have been fired into northern Israel. Sirens bled in Israeli cities like Hifa. The sky lit up with

interceptions and smoke trays. So far, there are no reports of major casualties in Israel, but this war is far from

over. Shortly after US President Donald Trump said that he had asked Netanyahu to be more low-key in Lebanon, the

Israeli Prime Minister said that he has instructed his cabinet to begin direct talks with Lebanon.

Talks aimed at disarming Hezbollah. At the same time, he insists there is no ceasefire in Lebanon and

that Israel will continue to strike with force. So what does Netanyahu want? It doesn't seem that it's peace, more like

to appease the United States. Of course, >> following repeated approaches by the Lebanese government to open peace

negotiations with us, I instructed the cabinet last night to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon in order to

achieve two objectives. First, the disarmament of Hezbollah and second, a historic sustainable peace agreement

between Israel and Lebanon. >> Now, Israel claims that the ceasefire agreement with Iran does not apply to

Lebanon. Thran argues that it does. This confusion means both sides still have room to escalate, impacting not just the

talks, but the global economy. For Lebanon, the cost of this war is staggering. Nearly 1 million people have

been displaced in Lebanon. At least 1,888 people have been killed and 6,92

injured. They're often tarnished as supporters of Hezbollah, which dragged the country back into war

by launching rockets at Israel in solidarity with Iran last month. They're also divided over news that

Israel would start direct negotiations with their government for the first time in decades.

failed negotiation. If you don't have any cards in your hands to exert pressure, then you have nothing to

negotiate about. Tomorrow they will say they want to put a representative at the port and the airport and all borders.

What can we tell them then? We'll have to agree. It won't work. Honestly, if you want to negotiate, you must be

strong. If you're not strong, you don't have a place. They'll step all over you. >> Of course, we want this to end. isn't

capable. They can't fight the US. We're not fighting Israel. We're fighting the US. And negotiation is the only way to

peace and for people to live. People are all displaced, living on the streets. People aren't living.

>> A defined Israel is continuing its operations in Lebanon with a clear aim to keep pressure on Hezbollah and test

Iran's red lines. And if a war and continued hostilities is what Israel wants, it's working. Iran is keeping

Hormuz blocked and its negotiator has threatened retaliation following Israel's refusal to stop bombing Lebanon

as US and Iranian delegations get ready to meet in Islamabad this weekend. These developments in Lebanon are going to be

a challenge. But what is it to Israel? It is signaling a longer game. Its military

says it wants to clear Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and create a buffer zone. Defense Minister Israel Katz has

even spoken about destroying entire villages modeled on operations in Gaza. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese

who fled are now barred from returning. Some Israeli politicians are even talking about redrawing borders.

Just last month, Bezal Mothric suggested annexing southern Lebanon. Human rights experts warn such policies

could amount to possible war crimes. So as things stand right now, there is no clear agreement and no documented terms

means no clear red lines. But then again, when have red lines stopped them? Donald Trump's ceasefire is already

beginning to slip. And for Lebanon, this is not just war anymore. This is the start of a full-blown humanitarian

crisis. Our next story tonight is about a missing US

drone. It disappeared over the straight of Hormuz. The drone is called the MQ4C Triton and it is one of America's most

advanced surveillance drones. Now, this drone sent an emergency signal first and then it vanished from the radar and the

timing makes this more serious. A ceasefire is now in place between the United States and Iran. Talks are

expected to begin in Pakistan tomorrow. But tensions have not eased, far from it. So what happened in the skies that

day and why does this incident matter now? Here's a report. It began as a routine mission. High

above the straight of Hormuz, a US Navy drone was watching everything. Then suddenly it stopped. The aircraft sent

out a distress signal code 7700, an international emergency call and within seconds it began to fall. From

nearly 50,000 ft, it dropped sharply. Then it disappeared from radar. No confirmation, no debris, no official

statement, just silence. The drone was the MQ4C Triton, one of the most advanced surveillance drones in

the world and one of the most expensive. Each unit costs over $200 million. Built by Northrup Grman, it is designed

to stay airborne for more than 24 hours. The drone can fly over 7,400 nautical miles and it operates at altitudes above

50,000 ft. From that height, it can scan vast stretches of ocean. It uses advanced

radar to track ships and can identify movement, speed, and type. The MQ4C also carries an electrooptical and infrared

sensors. These capture live images and video feeds. What's more, the drone can even detect radar signals from other

platforms, and it shares all of this in real time. In effect, it acts as an eye in the sky. This is why it is deployed

over critical regions. In this case, it is the strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which nearly 20% of the

world's oil flows. And right now, one of the most tense regions on the planet because this incident comes at a

delicate moment. The United States and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire. Talks are expected in

Islamabad, but the situation remains fragile and the strait is not fully open. Only a limited number of ships

have crossed in recent days. So, the disappearance of this drone raises difficult questions. Was it a

malfunction? Was it intercepted? Was it something entirely different? For now, there are no answers. No

country has claimed responsibility. Washington has not even confirmed what happened. And to understand why that

silence matters, consider what this war has already caused. Four F-15E fighter jets have been lost,

three of them in friendly fire, one shot down by Iranian air defenses. An A10 attack aircraft was also brought down.

An F-35 stealth jet was hit and damaged. An E3 Sentry surveillance aircraft was destroyed on the ground. A KC135

refueling aircraft was lost in a midair incident. A CH47 Chinuk helicopter was destroyed in a drone strike. Two C130

planes were also destroyed during a rescue operation in Iran. And the biggest losses have been drones. At

least 17 MQ9 Reapers have been shot down, each costing up to $30 million. There has also been a human cost.

Reports say at least 15 American service members have been killed and more than 520 have been wounded. So the financial

and the human toll has already been significant. Now, a $200 million MQ4C Triton drone

may have been added to that list and notably at a time when the fighting has paused and diplomacy is about to begin.

This points to something deeper that even when the guns fall silent, the risks do not.

Imagine you spend years building an army. You call them loyal. They call themselves MAGA. They put you in the

White House twice. And then one day you wake up, log on to Truth Social, and publicly call them nut jobs. That's

exactly what Donald Trump did this week. And the people that he went after, Tucker Carlson, Marjgerie Taylor Green,

Megan Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones. Not Democrats, not the mainstream media, but his own MAGA loyalists. So

what happened and why is the most powerful political movement in America suddenly eating itself alive? Let's

start with the term itself, MAGA, make America great again. In 2016, Trump popularized this slogan. He said it out

loud. He sold the merch and it's what his base is referred to as. They're called the MAGA. For a decade, they've

rallied behind Trump. But of late, the MAGA is divided. And at the center of it is Donald Trump. He is now fighting the

very voices that helped build him. The fracture came about when the Iran war began. Israel and the United States

attacked Thran. And the Iran war divided the right down the middle. On one side, you had the hawks. The bomb them to dust

crowd. people who wanted the United States to push all the way to regime change. On the other side, you had the

America first crowd. People who said, "Wait a minute. Didn't Trump promise no more endless wars? Didn't he say America

first? How does getting neck deep in a West Asian conflict fit into that?" And that tension was already simmering.

Then Trump's did something that lit the whole thing on fire. On Easter Sunday, he posted a profanity laced post. Then

he followed it up on Monday with a chilling threat. He said that he would wipe out an entire civilization.

And obviously his MAGA loyalists did not like that. Tucker Carlson called it vile. Meghan

Kelly said she was sick of it. Candace Owens went further. She called Trump a mad king. And Alex Jones. Jones called

on Trump's own cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment to declare Trump unfit to remove him. Clearly Trump did not like

the criticism. Shocking. So he came out on Truth Social with a 482word post. He called them, and I'm quoting

here, nut jobs, troublemakers with low IQs. He said they were doing it for cheap publicity for their podcasts. He

called Marjorie Taylor Green a traitor. He even threw in personal jabs as always. And then came the final blow.

Trump said, and I'm quoting again, "They're not MAGA, they're losers. Just trying to latch on to MAGA."

Now, here's what you need to understand. This isn't just an online spat. This is a structural crack. In the most powerful

political coalition in American politics, the MAGA media machine, Tucker Carlson,

Alex Jones, podcasters, digital influencers, the whole ecosystem. That machine was Trump's biggest weapon.

It gave him reach that no campaign ad budget could buy. It spoke directly to millions of Americans who don't trust

legacy media. And now that machine is misfiring. Some of it is turning against him. The

Iran war is the trigger. And the underlying tension is this. Trump ran on America first. And a significant chunk

of his own base is now asking. Is that what's happening? Public polling shows most Republican voters still support the

Iran war, but most isn't all. And in a midterm environment where Republicans are already facing headwinds, every

crack matters. So right now, MAGA is at a crossroads. It must rethink what it is at its core. For years, it was a

movement built on one simple rule. Trust Trump. Now that trust is cracking. Because when

a movement built on loyalty starts questioning its leader, what does it become? Will MAGA continue to be defined

by Trump or will it find its own voice as things escalate? We will be tracking that story for you.

We are 41 days into a war that nobody officially wanted. And yet here we are. A ceasefire that is already cracking at

the edges. A US vice president flying to Islamabad for talks that may already be compromised. And Israel doing what

Israel does, continuing to bomb Lebanon. and telling the world the ceasefire simply does not apply to it. Joining me

now is Shrimmoy Talugdar, senior geopolitical columnist and analyst with First Post. Smoy, good to have you. Tell

me, Shrimmoy, the state of the ceasefire right now seems quite murky because calling it a ceasefire may be a very

generous term. >> It actually in my latest column I've written that it the ceasefire is dead.

And the reason I'm saying this is because for any ceasefire or any talks which will succeed the ceasefire to hold

there needs to be a modicum of alignment of objectives and a modicum of trust both of which are absent in this case.

Ever since we have heard that there is a pause in hostilities, the ships are not passing the straight of Hormuz. In fact,

Kepler data says that only three ships have passed in the last 24 hours. And Iran has clearly said that every ship

must liazo with its army in order to pass the strait in effect because it wants to control the movement of the

ship. It tells you that one of the key objectives of American ceasefire offer

was to keep the ceasefire straight of holus open and that object has not been met which is why you find Donald Trump

today firing two posts on his truth social media app saying that first one

threatening Iran and the second one considerably softer in tone saying that this was not the ceasefire deal we have

we have signed on which tells you that Trump simply doesn't have the cards. The second reason why I'm saying that the

ceasefire is dead is that Iran wants to Lebanon to be included in the ambid of the ceasefire and there is a bit of

controversy and and and it's completely unclear whether Lebanon will be included because Israel has started bombing

Lebanon the moment ceasefire was announced and the day the ceasefire was announced was actually the deadliest day

of the war. 254 people were killed and many of these bombs fell on civilian areas. It was it was designed to provoke

and it was very clear that Israel was trying to scuttle the pause in hostilities. So when a key ally of us is

trying to scuttle the deal when there is absolutely zero trust between the two sides and there are two key points on

which there is absolutely no agreement the straight of Hormuz and Lebanon I do not see how this ceasefire can hold. So

let's talk about how Lebanon factors in in this ceasefire deal because because Iran says that Lebanon was part of the

deal. Pakistan the mediator says that Lebanon was part of the deal and yet the United States and Israel are backing

out. >> Well, it's it's very um interesting, isn't it? because yesterday we saw that

there was a huge controversy regarding Pakistan PM's post on X saying that uh you know he basically said that he was

the author of the deal but the point is that that particular post was sent to Shbasarif from Washington DC it was

quite clear he initially by mistake posted the draft message which mentioned Pakistan PM's message on X which clearly

gives you the game now many American media outlets have since pointed out that this and including New York Times

have pointed out that this text was sent from Washington DC to Islamabad. So when Pakistan PM posts on X that ceasefire

will include everything including Lebanon and when that post was sent to the Pakistan PM from Washington DC. It

was quite clear that there was agreement at least in the initial stages that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire.

Israel knew it. Israel because Israel for Israel the objective of the war is totally different from what American

objective is. Right now Trump wants to exit the war. Israel doesn't want him to exit. Clear diverges in in objectives.

So Israel pushed its luck. It went ahead and bombed Lebanon. And the interesting thing is later in the evening when Trump

was asked by news agency PBS about Israel striking Lebanon, he conveniently threw Pakistan under the bus saying that

Lebanon was not part of the deal. It is a Hezbollah thing. It's a different skirmish. So once again the reason why I

come back to my earlier point why ceasefire deal is is is is probably chasing a mirage because when one of the

parties is not true to its own word and America keeps on doing this. It bombed Iran in the middle of negotiations in

the first time when Oman was the mediator and now this time it has threw Pakistan under the bus who's trying to

play the mediator. So I don't see how this thing is going to last. So essentially it's not just a fragile

ceasefire but the mediator itself is being questioned. There's a lack of trust. I mean, think of what Iran is

thinking about the mediation skills of Pakistan since the United States at one moment is perhaps, we're not sure, but

at one moment reviewing and and uh approving a post by the Pakistani prime minister and then the next minute the

prime minister loses the control of the entire situation uh when Lebanon is just eliminated from the deal. So, it's very

one-sided. Yeah. Now tell me it >> it's quite clear that Israel does not trust Pakistan as a mediator and

Israel's envoys all over the world are saying it publicly many times. In fact he has pro he has come to the first post

interview and he said the same thing. >> So Pakistan has no credibility as a mediator. The reason Pakistan wanted to

be the mediator is existential. I've written about it in an earlier column. Pakistan fears being suck sucked into

this war because the war is happening at its doorstep and Iran has not sent missiles its way yet. So I think that is

the space that Pakistan has been able to create for itself. But other than that because of the security pact that it has

with Saudi Arabia and which Saudi Arabia can can can ask Pakistan to act upon at any time Pakistan fears being sucked

into this conflict. So for Pakistan to act as a mediator in this war to see to it that the war doesn't spread too far

was an existential issue. So it dived headlong into it. It worked the phones. And another thing which Pakistan has it

is a reeer state. So it can let itself be used and I I've used the I've used a very strong word in my article and I and

I see no reason why I shouldn't use it. It has let itself be used as a tissue paper by the US. a very unique role

which no other country would have done that which is why Trump actually if you there is a there's an article in

financial times which was published yesterday that article fills in crucial information gaps one of the things that

we have come to know via that article is that Trump has been pushing Pakistan pushing Iran via Pakistan for a deal

since March and why Pakistan because Pakistan is a fellow Muslim country and Iran sees Pakistan as a neutral entity

till now. So Trump has been pushing Asim Mun and Shahbas Sharif to talk to the Iranians and get them to the table. So

there was visible pressure from Washington DC on Pakistan. So even if it were wanted to stay out of out of this

mess, it wouldn't have been able to. So it acted as a kind of client go between something of an honest broker kind of a

role and then you know naturally Pakistan came into that role because of that reason. So the problem with this

arrangement is that America's key ally Israel doesn't trust Pakistan. So that leaves Pakistan in a very precarious

state. You are trying to play a host and one of the key allies of one side does not trust you and then

eventually what happens is there is a trust deficit which is why ultimately this and I keep coming back to my

earlier point the ceasefire is not going to hold because the key fulcrums on which this entire thing rests those are

all suspect. So right now in Islamabad we're going to have the ceasefire talks and vice president JD Vance could be

there for those talks. So we have defense minister Quadra Asf calling Israel evil right and a curse for

humanity at this point. Of course he uh backtracked later but why do you think he published such a post? It's kind of

torpedoing the ceasefire talks that are taking place in his own uh country. what kind of pressure is Pakistan under when

it comes to dealing with Israel or keeping Israel off the table? >> So, I'll answer this in two parts. The

first thing is that I need to point out that the talks are probably not on. I say this because the American media is

um coming out with stories saying that Inadian delegation has already reached Islamabad. At least two American media

outlets CNN and Washington uh Wall Street Journal have come out with it. But these are yesterday's news. Uh what

may have happened is that some some security office off officials may have gone to Pakistan. But the fact remains

that Iranian state aligned media outlets are coming out with this news that no Iranian delegation has reached Islamabad

and they will not reach Islamabad until and unless explicitly Lebanon is included in the ceasefire deal.

Something which Israel is not ready to do. Even today Netanyahu has come out with a statement saying that we are not

going to stop bombing Lebanon. So it tells you that the ceasefire talks might not even begin. That is number one. Now

let's come to the other point. Why did Pakistani defense minister put out such a post? Now he's a Pakistani defense

minister. He's not a troll or even an analyst. Absolutely. >> Which tells you that this is Pakistani

state talking. Why would they do that? My understanding of the situation is that Pakistan sees the daylight between

US and Israel on Iran. There is a clear daylight between the objectives. As I already told you, Trump wants an exit.

He has been desperate for exit for some time now. He does not want hostilities to continue because the gas prices are

going up. Oil is stopped and that eventually will affect him in his midterm elections. So he wants it out

quite clearly even the MAGA base is going against him. So Israel

any pause in hostility is a defeat because Iran's survival is a defeat for Israel. There's a clear binary here.

Israel sees Iran as an entity which if it survives is an existential threat to itself. So Israel is not ready to let

this pause in hostilities continue. So it'll do everything in its power. But the point is since Trump has the heavier

hand in the equation between Netanyahu and Trump and since their objectives have diverged, Pakistan sees an

opportunity to widen the gap which is why this post was tweeted out. Kuaja Aif was probably already aware that he had

to take it back at some point, but the internet never forgets. So it's out there. That narrative has already

spread. Israel is furious. But at the same time and this tells you the real leverage which right now Israel does not

enjoy over Trump. If this was um possible then Israel would have impressed upon Trump to call off the

talks because such a tweet where calls for basically genocide of Israel has gone out from the Pakistani defense

minister. If Israel's leverage was that substantial over Trump then the talks would have been called off. That has not

happened. So which tells you that there is a clear difference between Trump and Netanyahu as I see it and Pakistan is

trying to exploit that gap which is why he's come out with that post. >> So clearly vast differences in their

strategic goals. >> So not only is there a difference between US and Iran, there's also a

difference between US and Israel. So you see all the key falcrums of the or the key actors they have completely

different objectives and it is only Pakistan who's running from door to door trying to fix everything up because it

is existential for them. >> Thank you Mr. Shrimmo. Clearly vast differences in the strategic goals of

the United States and Israel. We here at First Post will continue to track this situation and how these ceasefire talks

in Pakistan turn out. Continue to watch First Post. Donald Trump has given Israeli Prime

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a clear warning. Calm things down in Lebanon or risk the fragile ceasefire with Iran.

Trump confirmed the blunt message in a phone call on Wednesday. I spoke with BB and he's going to lowkey

it. We have to be a little more low-key. The call was shorter than usual, but it was the first time Trump directly asked

Israel to slow its offensive. Even the timing was urgent. Hours after Trump announced the US Iran ceasefire, Israel

launched a massive wave of strikes on Lebanon. Around 100 targets were hit in minutes. More than 300 people were

killed, according to Lebanese authorities. Israel says most of the dead were Hezbollah fighters, but videos

from the ground show destroyed homes and injured civilians. Entire neighborhoods in southern Lebanon

and the Bea Valley have been leveled. More than 1,800 people have died in Lebanon since March 2. Thousands have

been displaced and anger is rising across the country. All my family were martyed. My mother,

my two sisters, my brother's wife, and my 20-year-old brother in the He al-Selum neighborhood at Alaba City.

They were struck without any warning. This is Israeli brutality. >> Trump fears the destruction could ruin

the upcoming talks with Iran. The peace meeting is set for Saturday in Islamabad. Vice President JD Vance will

lead the US team, but Iran has already warned it may walk away if Israel keeps bombing Lebanon

>> without fully restraining America's rabbid dog in Lebanon. There will be no ceasefire or negotiations

and the missiles are ready to launch. >> Clearly, the ceasefire is already shaky. Iran and Pakistan believe Lebanon is

part of the truth. Trump and Netanyahu say it is not. This disagreement has created confusion and mistrust.

>> The Hezbollah terrorist organization is desperate for a ceasefire and its Iranian patrons are also applying

pressure and issuing threats out of deep concern that Israel will crush Hezbollah.

On the other hand, Van said Israel has agreed to check themselves a little bit. He ins insisted this was not part of the

truce but a gesture to help the negotiations. European leaders have also urged Israel to ease the pressure.

>> We are against the Israel attacks against Lebanon but there are good news. Now

during the the meeting the minister of affairs of Israel called me for informing

for me on the decision for new negotiations between Israel direct negotiations between Israel and

Lebanon probably in the United States of America in the next days. This an important step the direct dialogue

between these two countries is important for achieving good results. I hope achieving a ceasefire also in Lebanon.

>> Nathan Yahu however remains firm in public. He insists Israel will strike Hezbollah with full force. His defense

minister says Israel plans to push north to the Latani River. Yet Nathan Yahu also says he is ready for direct talks

with Lebanon. Following repeated appeals by the Lebanese government to open negotiations

with us for peace, I instructed last night in the cabinet to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon in order to

achieve two objectives. One, to disarm Hezbollah, and the second, a historic sustainable peace agreement between

Israel and Lebanon. Israel is stronger than ever. Iran is weaker than ever. I have already brought

four peace agreements with Arab states, and I intend to bring more. real peace. Peace through strength.

Shalom. >> Trump, however, still sounds hopeful. He says Iranian leaders are more reasonable

in private. He thinks a deal is in reach. But he has also issued a threat. >> They're agreeing to all the things that

they have to agree to. Remember, they've been conquered. They have no military. If they don't make a deal, it's going to

be very painful. For now, Lebanon is struck in the middle. Homes destroyed, thousands

grieving, and the world is waiting to see whether diplomacy holds or collapses under the next round of explosions.

Now, for more on this, we are joined by Larry C. Johnson, who is a former CIA analyst. Larry, welcome to the program.

Beginning with Trump, did his warning to Nathan Yahoo come too late to stabilize the ceasefire with Iran?

Oh, sorry about that. I It was on I had it on mute. No, listen. Uh the Israelis tried to sabotage uh the uh ceasefire uh

with their with their strikes on Wednesday and they got a very stern phone call from Trump or others in his

administration telling them just to back off and stop. Um so far it looks like they have stopped uh despite what

Netanyahu says. Um th this is a this is a situation in which it's the United States that's desperate to get a

ceasefire. It's not Iran. Iran is content to continue fighting. It's the United States is suffering and trying to

uh you know they recognize that the there's a real economic global economic crisis that's now been created by the

closure of the straight of Hormuz. So, uh, and it's still a question whether or not Iran's going to show up in

Islamabad. Uh, they've made it they've made it clear Lebanon is part of this ceasefire, and if they're not included

in the ceasefire, Iran's not going to participate in these negotiations. >> On the same lines, how dangerous is

Israel's Lebanon offensive for upcoming Islamabad talks? >> Very dangerous. Um,

Iran is not looking to quote save its own skin. Iran has made it very clear that the the United States and Israel

must stop their attacks on Yemen, on Lebanon, and on Iraq, as well as on Iran. The the the western assault on

these countries must come to an end. That that's not something to be negotiated over. That is a demand for ne

that must be met in order for there to be negotiations. >> Right. Do you think Hezbollah is likely

to escalate further after the large scale Israeli strikes? >> Um Hezbollah is striking back in

response to those strikes. Uh I think they will they will go along with Iran and and stop their attacks as long as

Israel stops its attacks. Th this is so reminiscent of what happened in 2006 where Israel attempted to invade

southern Lebanon, take control of the country and quote defeat Ham Hezbollah and they failed. And so now what we're

seeing is Hezbollah is actually far more effective militarily than they were in 2006. They've inflicted significant

damage on the Israeli army and I think within a week or two the Israelis are going to be forced to withdraw.

>> Right. And before we let you go, do you think Iran will walk away from negotiations if the bombing continues?

>> Uh if if if the attacks on Lebanon continue, yes, they'll walk away. Iran is actually in the dominant

position now. They could they control the straight of Hormuz. There's nothing the United States can do to stop that to

o, you know, they talk about opening it. And Donald Trump's uh threats, they're just they're idle threats. He talks a

lot, but he can't actually deliver on what he claims that he's going to do. So, uh, Iran Iran is actually holding,

if you will, the Trump cards in this case. >> Larry C. Johnson, thank you for your

time and sharing your insights with First Post. >> Thank you.

Six weeks after the first USIsraeli strikes on Iran, Tehran and Washington's representatives are now scheduled to

meet for peace negotiations. The talks are set to be held in Pakistan. They are aimed at crafting a durable peace

framework following a shaky ceasefire which remains in force since the 8th of April. For now, the US says things are

under control, but warns that any breach of the deal will have consequences. >> I encourage the Iranians to come to the

table seriously. We've seen some signs that they're going to do that. We've seen some signs of bravado.

Fundamentally, we're in a good spot. They're reopening the straits. We have a ceasefire. And frankly, if they break

their end of the bargain, then they're going to see some serious consequences. >> For these peace talks, big names are

stepping in. From the US side, Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the talks. He'll be joined by key Trump

allies Steve Woodoff and Jared Kushner, both of whom have been deployed and uh have been involved in back channel

diplomacy. Now from Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araji and Parliament Speaker Muhammad Bagger Galibaf are

expected to take the lead, but as of now, the presence of the Iranian delegation remains unconfirmed.

The uncertainty over Iranian presence in the peace talks stems from developments on the ground. Israel continues to

strike its northern neighbor Lebanon, where the Iranbacked group Hezbollah is based. Tehran maintains that if attacks

on Lebanon continue, it could walk away from both the ceasefire and the talks. Since one of the key elements of

Tehran's 10point proposal under which it agreed to the ongoing ceasefire is a complete halt to attacks on its allied

armed groups across the region, including Hezbollah. Tehran is now arguing that strikes in

Lebanon undermine the credibility of ceasefire framework. >> The Iran US ceasefire terms are clear

and explicit. The US must choose ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both. The world sees the

massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.

Iran has once again restricted access to the Strait of Hermuz, a critical global oil trade route, signaling both economic

and strategic pressure. The uncertainty over Iranian participation amid Lebanon strikes is playing out in real time. The

Iranian ambassador to Pakistan announced yesterday that a delegation would arrive for what he described as serious talks

in Pakistan. But within hours that post was quietly deleted. Now that sudden reversal has

only deepened the uncertainty, raising fresh doubts over whether Iran will attend these talks at all. Meanwhile,

despite the ongoing tensions along its northern border, Israel is also signaling a possible diplomatic opening

with Lebanon. Following repeated approaches by the Lebanese government to open peace

negotiations with us, I instructed the cabinet last night to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon in order to

achieve two objectives. First, the disarmament of Hezbollah and second, a historic sustainable peace agreement

between Israel and Lebanon. >> But that path to talks is far from clear. Lebanese lawmakers have rejected

the idea of direct negotiations with Israel. They say that any next step must begin with a ceasefire before talks can

even be considered. So what we are witnessing is diplomacy on shaky ground, high level talks, deep mistrust and a

widening gap over Lebanon. Can these negotiations find common ground or is this simply a pause before the next

escalation? We are being joined by Mr. William V. Roach from a former United States

ambassador to Bahrain and the executive vice president at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Welcome to the program.

>> Thank you. Now given Kawaja's strong remarks against Israel even though they were

later deleted, how much does this undermine Pakistan's credibility as a neutral facilitator in the upcoming

peace talks? >> It's not clear yet. Um I haven't seen a reaction from the US side. Um we'll see.

I imagine they will say something and they will admonish the uh that type of rhetoric. Not it's not helpful. It's uh

incendiary. Um but we'll see if it has any long-term impact or if it's just a a temporary bit of the choppiness that

often uh goes with getting a ceasefire set of negotiations underway. With Israel reacting so strongly and

Iran even threatening to suspend talks, how dangerous is this war of words for an already fragile ceasefire process?

And could it derail the broader diplomatic efforts that are ongoing in the region?

I would put uh war of words maybe on one side and I think that's a risk but uh maybe manageable I think u in terms of

the Pakistanis um back and forth uh I think the the issues that are at stake in the

negotiations are more serious as a problem. Uh I think Iran is uh trying to insist and uh has some leverage that

Lebanon and the issue of Lebanon should be included in the negotiations and that uh there should be a ceasefire in

Lebanon just as there is uh in Iran. Um that is a serious issue for the negotiations. I believe that the initial

signs out of the US administration indicate they are trying to uh put some uh pressure on uh Israel to wind up

those military operations and bring them into a diplomatic negotiation track. Um and there are signs that maybe that

could happen next week if if there's a ceasefire. Right.

And what are Iran's options if the ceasefire talks fail to address the Lebanon issue?

their primary option is going to be uh putting restrictions on the strait of Hormuz and um trying to avoid directly

confronting President Trump's uh conditions, but finding um issues that maybe don't relate directly to the

United States, like Lebanon, for example, uh and using that uh as a a pretext to restrict or

stop traffic from going through the straight of Hormuz. It's a powerful piece of leverage that they have whether

they use it or threaten to use it. >> Right. Thank you very much for being with us on the show and for your valued

insights. >> Thank you. >> Hello and welcome to First Post. Amid

tensions in West Asia, we here are committed to bringing you the latest developments and expert analysis. Watch

our entire coverage now only on First Post. It's been 2 days since the ceasefire was

announced in West Asia and now the countdown to the next phase has begun. The United States and Iran are preparing

for high stakes talks. These negotiations are taking place in Pakistan tomorrow. For the first time

since the war began in February, both sides are set to engage in what could shape the future of this truce. But even

before these talks begin, there are clear signs of strain. US President Donald Trump is warning Iran again. He

posted again on Truth Social. Take a look at what he said. He said Thran was not honoring the deal, particularly on

the straight of Hormuz. I'm sure by now you know what that is. In fact, Donald Trump also reiterated

his claim of Iran not having a nuclear weapon. And what does have to say? They are striking a very different tone.

Yesterday, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mushtabak Kame made another statement. He did not make it in person, but it was

read out by an anchor on state TV. And in that Kam said, "Iran will not give up its rights."

>> Everyone should know this. By the will of Allah Almighty, we will definitely not leave the criminal aggressors who

have attacked our country alone. For certain, we will seek reparations for every damage, the price of the blood of

the martyrs, and the reparations for anyone injured. >> So even before the negotiations begin,

both sides are talking past each other. And that is what makes this moment so fragile because these talks are not

routine. These are high stakes and time bound. The two week ceasefire ends on the 22nd of April and there is very

little time to find common ground which brings me to the talks. Like I said they are set to take place in Islamabad and

the city is turning into a fortress. I'll tell you about that in a bit. But who will be attending it? The US

delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance. In fact, Vance has already left Washington for these talks. Listen

to what he had to say. >> I think it's going to be positive. We'll of course see. As the president of the

United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the

open hand. If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that

receptive. So, we're going to try to have a positive negotiation. The president has gave us some pretty clear

guidelines, and uh we're going to see. Reports say the talks will also include Trump's special envoy Steve Witkov and

his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, foreign minister Basarak GI is expected along with the

parliament speaker Muhammad Galibbah. But there is still no final confirmation on their attendance and there is a

reason for that. Galibah has set two preconditions to meet the United States. One, release Iran's frozen assets.

Number two, ceasefire in Lebanon. I'll get to that in a minute as well. So, there is a lot of uncertainty right now.

Plus, the format of these talks still not fully clear. Some reports suggest they could be held indirectly. Both

sides are likely to sit in separate rooms and Pakistani officials will act as the mediator.

But what's on the agenda? Both sides have proposed their separate peace plans. Iran has a 10-point peace plan.

The United States has a 15-point peace plan. I've told you about that. The negotiations will likely be centered

around that. Still, what could be the main talking points? Let's go through these. Number one, Iran's nuclear

program. The United States wants Iran to scale back enrichment. It does not want Thran to have the capability to build a

weapon. But Iran sees this very differently. It calls enrichment a non-negotiable right. I've told you

about this on the show before. Number two, sanctions. Iran wants all sanctions lifted in return for concessions.

The United States has said it is ready to talk sanctions relief. Number three, the straight of war moves. This is where

the global stakes come in. Around 20% of the world's oil passes through this route. Right now, traffic has dropped

sharply. Only a small number of vessels have been able to cross since the ceasefire was announced and energy

markets are already under pressure. Iran wants control. It is reportedly even charging a toll to pass through the

strait. >> We have clearly stated this that the strait of Hormuz after the approval of

this law will decisively come under the comprehensive control of the armed forces and other security bodies.

The US on the other hand wants free flow. It does not want a toll to be charged. In fact, Trump has even

discussed military options with UK Prime Minister Kama. >> Well, I had a discussion with President

Trump last night um and um set out to him the views um of the region here. These Gulf states are the neighbors of

Iran and therefore if the ceasefire is to hold um and we hope it will it has to involve them. They have very strong

views on the straight or we um and we spent most of the time on the call talking about the practical plan that's

going to be needed uh to get uh navigation through uh the strait. >> And this brings me to point number four,

the conflict in Lebanon. And this could likely be the top priority. Iran says the ceasefire must include Lebanon

because Hezbollah is part of its regional network. But the United States and Israel disagree. They say the truce

only covers direct US Iran hostilities and that difference is already visible on the ground. Overnight, Israel and

Hezbollah have once again exchanged fire. I'll tell you about that on the show later as well.

Thran says if Israel continues its attacks these talks may be meaningless. So what we are seeing right now is a

ceasefire on paper but clear disagreements on ground. The United States has its red lines. Iran has its

own and Israel is operating on a separate track altogether which means the success of these talks is far from

guaranteed. For now, the process is moving forward, but the gaps remain. Can these talks

bridge those gaps or will they end up exposing how fragile this truce really is? We'll come to know by tomorrow,

hopefully. Islamabad is shutting down for a meeting the world has its eyes on. The objective

to lock into the two-week fragile ceasefire so that it doesn't spiral into a wider war and this is a risky role

because these are talks that could easily fall apart. >> So that's what the Pakistani challenge

is right now is to sort of move from the the initial agreement stage to working out the details and the loose ends and

operationalizing the agreed upon principles. So the deal has to be engineered in a way where they walk away

with something as well. >> Let's start with Islamabad. Here 10,000 security personnel have been deployed.

Let's break that down. 6,000 officers from the Islamabad Capital Police, 3,000 from the Punjab constabillary,

a thousand traffic police to manage routes. The delegations will travel and that is before Yukan, the army, the

rangers and the elite military units. And then there are the Margala hills, the green forested hills that sit

directly above Islamabad. Army troops have been deployed there on the high ground. High ground means visibility and

range. Anyone up there can see everything below. So Pakistan is covering the hills. Now the red zone,

this is the administrative heart of Islamabad, parliament, embassies, the foreign ministry, the prime minister's

office, offices of international organizations. All of that is here. And every single entry point into the red

zone is sealed. Just one road option remains. That's the Margala road. And even that is for authorized officials

only and residents who live inside. That's it. You don't have the clearance, you don't get in. Now what about outside

the red zone? The rest of Islamabad is locked down too. Fezul Avenue. This is one of Islamabad's main roads. It's

closed. And outside all the security, there's a sense of pride building among the people in Islamabad.

Now the hotel, the Serena Hotel, this is where the delegates are staying. This is where the talks are happening. The

entire hotel has been booked out from Wednesday evening through Sunday. Remember the talks will be held on

Saturday. The White House has confirmed this. Every room in this hotel has been swept for listening devices, explosives,

anything that shouldn't be there. Then there are the motorcades. Movement is always the most dangerous moment for any

high-v value target. Pakistan knows this. So the routes from the airport to the hotel have been pre-selected,

separate routes for each delegation. Now every delegation will have closed protection officers assigned and these

officers are banned from carrying mobile phones, wearing digital watches, no kinds of gadgets here.

In a protection operation of such kind, you eliminate every single threat, even the smallest ones. Even the fuel going

into the transport vehicles, those will be sampled and sealed. And all of this governed by one document. That's

Pakistan's blue book, specifically version 170613. This is Pakistan's classified VVIP protection manual. It

operates on a three- layer system. The inner layer is the isolation zone, the most restricted space of all. Only

vetted personal bodyguards and personal staff get in. Then there's the middle layer. This will include authorized

officials, invited guests, cleared in advance. The outer layer is managed by local police controlling the public,

managing the traffic. Interior Minister Mosi Naki has confirmed this plan. He has signed off on it. So getting the

ceasefire done isn't Islamabad's biggest challenge. It's keeping delegations safe. And we get why. For decades,

Pakistan has been the biggest exporter of terrorism across the region. They've harbored terrorists. They have trained

them. They have sent them across the border. And now the chickens have come home to roost with the rise in terror

incidents in the country. In fact, Pakistan is the most terroraffected country in the world. And they only have

themselves to blame. So thus, they have to secure Islamabad. Well, this is their one chance to maybe

redeem their global standing, and they're making sure it isn't derailed by their past, or should I say present.

Mangled bodies, hospitals overrun, families searching for their loved ones. This is what Beirut looks like. The

Lebanese people are still reeling from one of the deadliest days in its recent history.

160 bombs in 10 minutes. That was the scale of Israel strikes on Wednesday. More than 300 people were killed and

even now, two days later, the aftermath is still unfolding. Rescuers are continuing to pull bodies from under the

rubble. Hospitals are still waiting for remains to be identified. And it's not just Beirut. The entire country is on

edge. Now, Lebanon has caught in a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah. And in

war, rockets and missiles do not discriminate. So, ordinary Lebanese civilians are paying the price.

Hospitals in Lebanon are overwhelmed. Reports say that the injured are being rushed straight into emergency rooms.

The dead are being taken to the mosques where exhausted medics are handling body bag after body bag for relatives to

identify before burial. Millions caught in a war they did not start now asking what did we do wrong.

Southerners won't leave their land. This is their land. No one is allowed to occupy it. They must stop the war and

leave. What are going to negotiate? We will negotiate if they leave our land, stop the attacks and get guarantees from

the government. >> Now, today, Israeli air strikes hit multiple areas in the south, including

Benjel, which is considered a symbolic stronghold of Hezbollah, but this is not a one-sided conflict. Hezbollah has also

responded. Rockets have been fired into northern Israel. Sirens bled in Israeli cities like Hifa. The sky lit up with

interceptions and smoke trails. So far, there are no reports of major casualties in Israel, but this war is far from

over. Shortly after US President Donald Trump said that he had asked Netanyahu to be more low-key in Lebanon, the

Israeli Prime Minister said that he has instructed his cabinet to begin direct talks with Lebanon.